1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

I am thinking LSU could overtake USC by the end of the year

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Desert Scar, Nov 24, 2003.

  1. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2000
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    11
    All this talk about USC in the clear, but I am not so sure.

    LSU just beat Ole Miss, will have to beat Ark (who has a very good record and Q win over Texas) and will have to beat Georgia or possibly Florida or even more remotely Tennesse (all with good records on difficult schedules) .

    They will probably only have to make up 1 poll position via between SOS, Computer Polls or Quality win.

    SOS:
    -I am guessing USC's SOS will be around 30 or so after the OSU game. USC's is current 37--the combination of UCLA and Oregon State will have a slight positive effect.
    -LSU's is currently 72 but think it will free fall to 15 or 20 after a Miss, Ark & Geor/UF/Tenn schedule. I think people are underestimating what Miss, Ark and Geo/UF/UT are going to do to LSU's currently poor 72 SOS--consider conference mates UF's SOS is 9 before playing FSU, UT's is 12 and Georgia--with weak non-conference schedule and not playing Miss (#2 SEC West) or Ark (#3 SEC west) is 20. In sum I can't see how LSU's SOS could be any worse than Georgia's is now after LSUs finishing games.
    -overall I'll expect LSU to make up around .40-.60 on SOS by the end of the season.

    Quality win points will be very difficult for either team to get. WSU is out of the top 10. Georgia is in the top 10--but LSU will have to beat them again unless Georgia loses to Gtech (when they would fall anyway) or Florida somehow leapfrogs Tenn in the BCS where then Florida wins the tiebreaker with Georgia to represent the SEC east. For the latter to happen Florida must beat FSU and Tennessee must lose to Kentucky (a lot more plausible than many realize--it is all Kentucky has left and they have been competitive at times) or win but somehow get vaulted by Florida in the BCS.
    -overall probably not ground here for either team--though LSU could get as much as .5-.6 or possibly only .1-.2 if they give Georgia its 3rd loss but Georgia still ends at 9 or 10 do to other loses (FSU or UF, maybe Tenn, maybe Mia).

    -Now it comes down to computers. As we say with OSU-USC last week--because winning margin has been taken out most of the computer polls track fairly closely to SOS x winning %. If LSU rises in SOS as rapidly as I think--that is bad news for USC as they could get leapfrogged by LSU in 5 or 6 computer polls. Remember USC was ahead of OSU in only 1 computer poll, 6 or 7 had OSU higher because OSU had the 13 SOS to USC's 37. I am assuming a similar story if LSUs SOS is like 16 to USC 30.
    -summary, let's say LSU comes out ahead if 5 polls, USC in 2--LSU gains another around .40 here, if LSU is ahead in 6 to 1, I think than is more like a .70 gain.

    OVERALL SUMMARY: I think people have no idea how close it will be if USC and LSU win out. I think it will go down to .3 or so difference assuming no quality points are in the equation. Further, if somehow Georgia doesn't lose again yet LSU wins out against a team like Florida in the SEC championship--I am very confident LSU will be the BCS #2.
     
  2. Dubious

    Dubious Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2001
    Messages:
    18,317
    Likes Received:
    5,089
    I read somthing to that effect on ESPN this AM.
    They also said that if OU lost to KSU they would fall, but no further than 3rd.

    Call me a Luddite, but I would find it quite hilarious if the BCS computer just melts down.

    If you don't have a playoff where one team wins out , you don't really have a national championship, you just have a beauty pagent.
     
  3. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2000
    Messages:
    11,494
    Likes Received:
    1,231
    LSU is pretty much screwed. LSU cannot earn quality win or strength of schedule points from beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. The BCS does not award points for playing the same team twice. LSU had to schedule UL-Monroe and Western Illinois because Marshall and Va Tech backed out of their contracts late in the game. Their non-conference schedule is absolutely killing their SOS.

    Neither of LSU's remaining games is a gimme. You never know which Arkansas team is going to show up. Last season Matt Jones lead his team on a ridiculous drive to a game winning TD against LSU. This is the same physical Arkansas team with the best OT in the nation in Shawn Andrews, a stud CB in Ahmad "Batman" Carrol, and a pretty good receiver (forget his name). Ole Miss gave LSU everything they could handle last Saturday, and I expect the Hogs to do the same on Saturday.

    Meanwhile, if they make the SEC CCG, they'll likely face a talented UGA team lead by future top-10 pick DE David Pollak and good leader in QB David Greene. This game will be an all out war. LSU won the last meeting 19-10, making it hard for them to beat the same team twice.

    All things considered, I'm rooting for LSU to win the rest of their games this year. A 12-1 Tiger squad will be picked up by the Fiesta Bowl. The Rose, who picks next will take Texas to face off against Michigan. The Fiesta then snatches up Florida State, and the Orange is left with a Miami - Ohio State rematch.
     
  4. Manny Ramirez

    Manny Ramirez The Music Man

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2001
    Messages:
    27,611
    Likes Received:
    4,158
    I read something about this yesterday. Here is the link to the article:

     
  5. Kilgore Trout

    Kilgore Trout Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2002
    Messages:
    1,743
    Likes Received:
    136
    I really want them to pull this off. However if LSU has to play Georga in the SEC champlionship their chances are done. If this happens they may even fall to #4.
     
  6. ocelot_ark

    ocelot_ark Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2002
    Messages:
    178
    Likes Received:
    0
    No need for LSU to get their hopes up for the NC game...Arkansas owns LSU...(okay, maybe not, but stranger things have happened)

    Woo Pig Sooie!!!
     
  7. mrpaige

    mrpaige Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2000
    Messages:
    8,831
    Likes Received:
    15
    Even though I'm not a Michigan fan, I'm pulling for Oregon State and Arkansas in the coming week. Just for the chaos factor.
     
  8. tozai

    tozai Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2001
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    0
    Well, I doubt LSU will win out, so USC should be in the MNC game.
     
  9. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2000
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    11
    I agree too. LSU has probably just better than 50/50 to beat Arkansas at Arkansas than Florida or Georgia on a nuetral field. Those are all darned good teams, so overall I say LSU has only a 33% chance or so to win out.

    But like I said before, if LSU wins out I am not sure they need the bonus points from Georgia. Beating Georgia again would be major in SOS and the computer polls even if they lose most or all of their QW bonus. IMO if Florida somehow manages to get in the SEC champ without Georgia losing--LSU running the table without a doubt gets them in the NC game. I do think USC is the better overall team, but LSU would be the BCS #2 and rightfully so on merits.

    It all hinges on the computers and SOS, and Miss, Ark & Georgia/UF/Tenn are going to rocket LSU's SOS.
     
  10. mduke

    mduke Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2001
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    0
    It's pretty much a given that OU will be in the Sugar Bowl even if they lose to KSU...Just what I've heard...
     
  11. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2000
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    11
    I think it is a shame, but true, the top 10 SOS would save them. If LSU & USC win out, I think one of them will be left out even if OU can't even win their own conference. I think OU would have to slip to 4 in the voter polls (possible they move Michigan to 3) or have Texas lose to A&M, or possibly both, for OU to not be in the NC game even if they stick it up versus K-state.

    The more I look at it I do think LSU needs Florida in the SEC championship game. The reason is if you see the major movers (Michigan, from 35 to 13 playing BCS#5 versus Miss only going from 57 to 48 playing BCS#3) in SOS and computers are the ones that beat other teams with good records AND whose opponents have high SOS (factored in 1/3). Florida will have like a 5 SOS after this weekend and Georgia around 30. So not only would LSU kick their own Quality win bonus by beating Georgia again, but they gain less from Georgia's schedule than Florida's.

    Oh the Ark-LSU game is at LSU. That makes a big difference--I would expect LSU to be a touchdown or more favorites and win 75% of the time instead of very slight favorites and more of a 50/50 toss-up.

    Now Georgia or Florida (coming off an FSU victory) on a nuetral field verus LSU? LSU would be a very slight favorite I would think (couple of points at most).

    LSU still has a ton of football left to play.
     
  12. PieEatinFattie

    PieEatinFattie Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2003
    Messages:
    863
    Likes Received:
    1
    That would be so cool!

    Never gonna happen...

    But it would be cool.
     
  13. mduke

    mduke Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2001
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    0
    Why? A loss to #14 KState is better than a loss to unranked Cal...

    I'm not saying they should definitely be in the sugar bowl if they 'stink it up', but I don't see them getting beat handily by any team...plus they've been proclaimed 'one of the best teams ever' by many people, so I don't think it's a 'shame'...

    Not that it matters anyway, cause OU is gonna win against KSU, and LSU will lose again anyway.:D
     
  14. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2000
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    11
    Because all 3 teams would have 1-loss and only one of those teams both 1) have won their conference and 2) had a late season loss.

    On the game itself it should be interesting. I think both Stoops coached for Bill Snyder--so I would think they know well KSU schemes on both sides of the ball. Given this and how well OU staff prepares--seems to be a big edge to OU.

    However the X-factor that could give KSU a chance is Roberson. He can make plays even when the defense makes the right call. If KSU can get some pressure on White and Roberson plays a fine game--KSU can easily win. I wouldn't be surprised at all--because Texas's and most all other Big 12 defenses not in Norman or Manhattan suck so bad, in fact I think KSU is the toughest match for them from the entire Big 12.

    IMO I have seen flaws in OU against Tech and other teams. Tech really played pretty crappy (dopped balls & blown coverages) yet hung around somehwat. I don't think this OU team is near as good as the 99 team because their running game and short game (e.g., screens) without Griffin is not nearly as explosive, plus I am not sure if their defense is really at the level of the 99 or 00 Roy Williams lead ones.

    Honestly I think I'd take USC outright against OU right now. I would pick OU against anyone else, but I think LSU, KSU, Michigan and a few others could give them all they could handle. Because OU's offense I think will be completely 1 dimensional against any kind of quality defense, the key will be pass protection. Someone who can get to White occasionally and who has a balanced enough offense to put a few points up will take them out IMO.
     
  15. pgabriel

    pgabriel Educated Negro

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    42,794
    Likes Received:
    3,005
    Jim Rome's homering for USC is sickening, especially when he used to call them a Junior College just a couple of seasons ago.
     
  16. tozai

    tozai Member

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2001
    Messages:
    2,263
    Likes Received:
    0
    I have to disagree about KSU having a chance against OU. They're not that great a team. If OU is focused, they'll have no problem. And seeing Stoops track record, I'd be pretty sure OU will handle them. The only team IMO that could give OU a game is USC. I haven't see enough of LSU to make a judgement on them. Michigan is like Texas and would get torn up.
     
  17. mduke

    mduke Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2001
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    0
    I will tell you right now that this is the best OU team I've witnessed as a fan....the talent really isn't comparable to the 2000 team IMO. Better qb (though it's close) much better WRs, better all-around D...
     
  18. Desert Scar

    Desert Scar Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2000
    Messages:
    8,764
    Likes Received:
    11
    I know this is your opinion, we will have to see. OU's competition has been much weaker (no other elite Big 12 teams--even Texas is not this year, giving up 100 points in two games proved that) and teams like Texas and Tech had much more success against this year's OU defense than those Roy Williams led ones. I do agree the receivers are better, I don't agree White is better than Hypel (let's see when the former gets pressure from a USC or LSU or possible K-State)--but either way losing Griffin, who ensured offensive balance, is a bigger factor anyway.

    I have seen a lot more chinks in OU's armor offensively this year than the 2000 team and more chinks defensively than both the 2000 & 2001 team. OU may win the NC, but by far their toughest tests are coming up because they are finally going to play some defenses thart can pressure.
     
  19. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2000
    Messages:
    11,494
    Likes Received:
    1,231
    The current Sooner team is way better than the 2000 squad. Better athletes and a lot more depth. They used their 3rd string MLB, Gayron Allen, against Tech last week! Jason White has a better arm than Heupel, and is playing at another level. Josh struggled a little late in the season in 2000, and the defense carried him a bit.

    I felt that the 2001 and 2002 Longhorn teams had better talent than OU. In 2001, the Horns had guys like DD Lewis, Mike Williams, Quentin Jammer, and Rod Babers. But this year, OU has more talent and is better coached. Talent doesn't mean anything unless you can develop players.
     
  20. mduke

    mduke Member

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2001
    Messages:
    2,823
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yeah, Allen has started the past probably 3 games...and done really well...I think he had 9 tackles his first game..:D
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now