I am thinking LSU could overtake USC by the end of the year

All this talk about USC in the clear, but I am not so sure.

LSU just beat Ole Miss, will have to beat Ark (who has a very good record and Q win over Texas) and will have to beat Georgia or possibly Florida or even more remotely Tennesse (all with good records on difficult schedules) .

They will probably only have to make up 1 poll position via between SOS, Computer Polls or Quality win.

SOS:
-I am guessing USC's SOS will be around 30 or so after the OSU game. USC's is current 37--the combination of UCLA and Oregon State will have a slight positive effect.
-LSU's is currently 72 but think it will free fall to 15 or 20 after a Miss, Ark & Geor/UF/Tenn schedule. I think people are underestimating what Miss, Ark and Geo/UF/UT are going to do to LSU's currently poor 72 SOS--consider conference mates UF's SOS is 9 before playing FSU, UT's is 12 and Georgia--with weak non-conference schedule and not playing Miss (#2 SEC West) or Ark (#3 SEC west) is 20. In sum I can't see how LSU's SOS could be any worse than Georgia's is now after LSUs finishing games.
-overall I'll expect LSU to make up around .40-.60 on SOS by the end of the season.

Quality win points will be very difficult for either team to get. WSU is out of the top 10. Georgia is in the top 10--but LSU will have to beat them again unless Georgia loses to Gtech (when they would fall anyway) or Florida somehow leapfrogs Tenn in the BCS where then Florida wins the tiebreaker with Georgia to represent the SEC east. For the latter to happen Florida must beat FSU and Tennessee must lose to Kentucky (a lot more plausible than many realize--it is all Kentucky has left and they have been competitive at times) or win but somehow get vaulted by Florida in the BCS.
-overall probably not ground here for either team--though LSU could get as much as .5-.6 or possibly only .1-.2 if they give Georgia its 3rd loss but Georgia still ends at 9 or 10 do to other loses (FSU or UF, maybe Tenn, maybe Mia).

-Now it comes down to computers. As we say with OSU-USC last week--because winning margin has been taken out most of the computer polls track fairly closely to SOS x winning %. If LSU rises in SOS as rapidly as I think--that is bad news for USC as they could get leapfrogged by LSU in 5 or 6 computer polls. Remember USC was ahead of OSU in only 1 computer poll, 6 or 7 had OSU higher because OSU had the 13 SOS to USC's 37. I am assuming a similar story if LSUs SOS is like 16 to USC 30.
-summary, let's say LSU comes out ahead if 5 polls, USC in 2--LSU gains another around .40 here, if LSU is ahead in 6 to 1, I think than is more like a .70 gain.

OVERALL SUMMARY: I think people have no idea how close it will be if USC and LSU win out. I think it will go down to .3 or so difference assuming no quality points are in the equation. Further, if somehow Georgia doesn't lose again yet LSU wins out against a team like Florida in the SEC championship--I am very confident LSU will be the BCS #2.

 

I agree too. LSU has probably just better than 50/50 to beat Arkansas at Arkansas than Florida or Georgia on a nuetral field. Those are all darned good teams, so overall I say LSU has only a 33% chance or so to win out.

But like I said before, if LSU wins out I am not sure they need the bonus points from Georgia. Beating Georgia again would be major in SOS and the computer polls even if they lose most or all of their QW bonus. IMO if Florida somehow manages to get in the SEC champ without Georgia losing--LSU running the table without a doubt gets them in the NC game. I do think USC is the better overall team, but LSU would be the BCS #2 and rightfully so on merits.

It all hinges on the computers and SOS, and Miss, Ark & Georgia/UF/Tenn are going to rocket LSU's SOS.

 

I think it is a shame, but true, the top 10 SOS would save them. If LSU & USC win out, I think one of them will be left out even if OU can't even win their own conference. I think OU would have to slip to 4 in the voter polls (possible they move Michigan to 3) or have Texas lose to A&M, or possibly both, for OU to not be in the NC game even if they stick it up versus K-state.

The more I look at it I do think LSU needs Florida in the SEC championship game. The reason is if you see the major movers (Michigan, from 35 to 13 playing BCS#5 versus Miss only going from 57 to 48 playing BCS#3) in SOS and computers are the ones that beat other teams with good records AND whose opponents have high SOS (factored in 1/3). Florida will have like a 5 SOS after this weekend and Georgia around 30. So not only would LSU kick their own Quality win bonus by beating Georgia again, but they gain less from Georgia's schedule than Florida's.

Oh the Ark-LSU game is at LSU. That makes a big difference--I would expect LSU to be a touchdown or more favorites and win 75% of the time instead of very slight favorites and more of a 50/50 toss-up.

Now Georgia or Florida (coming off an FSU victory) on a nuetral field verus LSU? LSU would be a very slight favorite I would think (couple of points at most).

LSU still has a ton of football left to play.

 

Because all 3 teams would have 1-loss and only one of those teams both 1) have won their conference and 2) had a late season loss.

On the game itself it should be interesting. I think both Stoops coached for Bill Snyder--so I would think they know well KSU schemes on both sides of the ball. Given this and how well OU staff prepares--seems to be a big edge to OU.

However the X-factor that could give KSU a chance is Roberson. He can make plays even when the defense makes the right call. If KSU can get some pressure on White and Roberson plays a fine game--KSU can easily win. I wouldn't be surprised at all--because Texas's and most all other Big 12 defenses not in Norman or Manhattan suck so bad, in fact I think KSU is the toughest match for them from the entire Big 12.

IMO I have seen flaws in OU against Tech and other teams. Tech really played pretty crappy (dopped balls & blown coverages) yet hung around somehwat. I don't think this OU team is near as good as the 99 team because their running game and short game (e.g., screens) without Griffin is not nearly as explosive, plus I am not sure if their defense is really at the level of the 99 or 00 Roy Williams lead ones.

Honestly I think I'd take USC outright against OU right now. I would pick OU against anyone else, but I think LSU, KSU, Michigan and a few others could give them all they could handle. Because OU's offense I think will be completely 1 dimensional against any kind of quality defense, the key will be pass protection. Someone who can get to White occasionally and who has a balanced enough offense to put a few points up will take them out IMO.

 

I know this is your opinion, we will have to see. OU's competition has been much weaker (no other elite Big 12 teams--even Texas is not this year, giving up 100 points in two games proved that) and teams like Texas and Tech had much more success against this year's OU defense than those Roy Williams led ones. I do agree the receivers are better, I don't agree White is better than Hypel (let's see when the former gets pressure from a USC or LSU or possible K-State)--but either way losing Griffin, who ensured offensive balance, is a bigger factor anyway.

I have seen a lot more chinks in OU's armor offensively this year than the 2000 team and more chinks defensively than both the 2000 & 2001 team. OU may win the NC, but by far their toughest tests are coming up because they are finally going to play some defenses thart can pressure.