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Hypothetical Kevin Durant Scenario

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by bball1217, Jul 9, 2015.

  1. bball1217

    bball1217 Member

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    I was playing around with some hypotheticals based on the projected cap level - $89,000,000 (HUGE jump) and the corresponding max-level contracts ($25,033,189 for 7-9 years experience; next year is Durant's 9th), which KD will obviously get. So, I am assuming no S&T and no major moves for players with contracts past this upcoming season which I know is unlikely, but here it goes:

    Salary committed for 2016-1017 (Italics is RFA QO or Non-guaranteed):
    Dwight Howard - $23,282,457
    James Harden - $16,784,031
    Corey Brewer - $7,986,071
    Trevor Ariza - $7,806,971
    Kostas Papanikolaou - $5,997,080
    Patrick Beverley - $5,943,820
    Terrence Jones - $3,532,643
    Donatas Motiejunas - $3,278,997
    Sam Dekker - $1,720,560
    Clint Capela - $1,296,240
    Nick Johnson - $980,431
    Montrezl Harrell - $874,636

    So, that is $79,483,937 against the cap and $9,516,063 in cap room available.

    First, trade or waive Papa's non-guaranteed contract and replace his roster spot with the minimum cap hold of $543,471. Now, cap room available is $14,969,672. Still about $10,000,000 off KDs projected max base salary.

    Next, we must trade one of Ariza/Brewer and let one of Motiejunas/Jones go via RFA outright or S&T (a little less control here since market will decide there value). I assumed Brewer traded and Jones let go. No salary can come back in any trade, we need all the room we can get. Now, cap room available is $25,944,915 and we have the room to get KD!

    So, now our salary commitments are:
    Kevin Durant - $25,033,189
    Dwight Howard - $23,282,457
    James Harden - $16,784,031
    Trevor Ariza - $7,806,971
    Patrick Beverley - $5,943,820
    Donatas Motiejunas - $3,278,997 (will change to whatever his new contract is, we will be able to match any reasonable offer)
    Sam Dekker - $1,720,560
    Clint Capela - $1,296,240
    Nick Johnson - $980,431
    Montrezl Harrell - $874,636
    Roster Spot - $543,471
    Roster Spot - $543,471

    Lineup:
    Beverley/Johnson
    Harden/Ariza
    Durant/Dekker
    Motiejunas/Harrell
    Howard/Capela

    It is a LONG way away, and there is most likely to be several moves to make this null, but if we do stand pat with what we have for one more year or do not add contracts past this upcoming season, it COULD happen.

    Either way, its fun and interesting to think about the possibility. But I would much rather take a championship this year instead :grin:

    All projections/numbers are from spoctrac and larry coon's NBA cap FAQ page.
     
    1 person likes this.
  2. Play07

    Play07 Member

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    So we have to trade brewer to even get a chance at KD next yr?
     
  3. bball1217

    bball1217 Member

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    Trades would only need to happen if KD agrees to come here, we just have to hope Bosh situation 2.0 doesn't play out
     
  4. photojoe

    photojoe Member

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    Too soon.
     
  5. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    He ain't coming, lets try to win this season.
     
  6. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    i have a hard time understanding why comments like these are necessary. If you don't want to talk about it don't post or respond. Why tell someone it's too whatever if they want to talk about it. The OP obviously put in the work....no ones forcing you to discuss and discussing it doesn't take away from being able to enjoy the team right now. Heck it's the off season, it's not like there's a ton of stuff to talk about other than.....you know.....ways to improve the team.
     
  7. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    Btw thanks for putting that together OP, I've curious myself but never had the time to go and figure it all out.
     
  8. ForTheWinYes

    ForTheWinYes Member

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    Now add someone like Lawson's large salary into the equation and you'll see why Morey might not want to give up too much for a player who might have to be a rental.
     
  9. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    Boooo, no josh smith.
     
  10. Disciple of RP

    Disciple of RP Contributing Member

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    Wow...I'm usually on board with all your posts but couldn't disagree more here.

    I agree with the other posters and they're just (respectfully) giving their opinions.

    Chill, breh.
     
  11. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    I should have given a more quality post I agree, I was lazy.

    But my opinion is that we are talking too much about something that will likely not happen. We have a great opportunity to win now and I'd rather focus on realistic acquisitions and not "pie in the sky" scenarios that won't even be possible until a year from now.
     
  12. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Doesn't howard have an opt out? If he opts out, Durant can be signed with cap space and then Howard can resign as our own FA, or am i missing something?
     
  13. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    Since Durant is a small forward, starting quality depth at the position apart from him probably isn't overly necessary
     
  14. basketballholic

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    OP,

    DMo will have a cap hold (RFA) in 2016 of $5,720,512.50. You'll have to use that as your figure for DMo when figuring available cap space.


    Likewise, Terrence's cap hold will also be even higher than DMo's. But thankfully he won't be here. Or at the very least we'll renounce him outright.

    Not to mention, you're assuming Dwight will be happy to take the $23 million he's on the books for. He's got an opt-out and he will be eligible for a super max deal starting in the $29-30 million range. So you're assuming he'll take a good haircut of around $6 million or so to get Durant in here.

    But it funnels down to the same place. At least one of Ariza, Brewer, Bev, has to go to come up with the cap space to give Durant (or any other max free agent with 7-9 years experience) a max contract. That is if we retain DMo. And if Dwight opts out and we have to give him a starting salary of $29-30 million that means other salaries have to move out as well.


    By the way, I fully expect this to change by next summer. We'll either trade for a good, young PG on a rookie deal that we're planning on keeping or we'll trade for a good PG on a long-term contract at somewhere between $11-15 million per season.
     
    #14 basketballholic, Jul 10, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2015
  15. bball1217

    bball1217 Member

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    Why is that, I thought the cap hold was just the QO?
     
  16. basketballholic

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    cap hold is 2.5 times last year's salary I do believe.

    cbafaq.com
     
  17. ggeorge115

    ggeorge115 Member

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    this is what i thought too. but its risky to let dwight roam around in free agency to leave after getting a better offer lol but if dwight is promised another 5 year contract if he opts out then i dont get why we wouldnt do that? this way we dont lose any major piece
     
  18. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    It'll be Ariza or Brewer, maybe and Brewer, Durant plays the same position (just he's a whole lot better)
     
  19. bball1217

    bball1217 Member

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    Ah, I see. Thanks for pointing that out. I guess we would have to trade Ariza too then to create the space, which hurts, but that's still an incredible starting 5.
     
  20. basketballholic

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    If we trade for a PG that has a $12 million salary, then it'll be a lot more than just one of those guys.


    And that's my concern about Bev's and Brewer's contracts and part of the reason why I'm wondering if we're going to trade for a good PG on a rookie contract like Schroder, Ennis, Smart, etc.

    Because if we have to dump more than one of these guys for no incoming salary next summer, that could get kinda tough.
     

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