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[Hypothesis] Analytics, I think we're doing it wrong OR in defense of the mid-range shot

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by twhy77, Apr 1, 2017.

  1. twhy77

    twhy77 Contributing Member

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    As everyone knows, the team has an emphasis on 3s, layups/dunks, and free throws with the mid-range having gone the way of the dinosaur. I believe the broadcast team said 110 out of 114 points came in those forms in one of our recent games.

    While the long term percentages might support these shots, I have to say that the lack of the mid- range game makes us incredibly predictable at times and easier to guard in crunch time.

    Think about the number of step back go ahead or game winning shots that James hit in his first two years here. You don't see that anymore. Against good teams, we are basically hand cuffed at the end of games.

    My hypothesis is that the addition of the mid-range shot would open up better looks, especially with respect to layups and dunks.

    Can the collective braintrust that is Clutchfans think of a way to analyze this? I imagine there has to be some number of mid-range shots that would be too much, but the complete omission of it from our game just seems like we are doing analytics wrong.
     
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  2. CapelaOnlyFan

    CapelaOnlyFan Member

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    That kind of logic will get you crucified here buddy. My condolences in advance
     
  3. RESINator

    RESINator Member

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    Or maybe the lack of mid range shots is why we're currently 3rd seed. The more you know. Just Morey things
     
  4. twhy77

    twhy77 Contributing Member

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    Well, this isn't anti-analytics. It's just an argument that we're doing it wrong. The Warriors certainly take a few mid-range shots throughout the game.
     
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  5. twhy77

    twhy77 Contributing Member

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    But we clearly struggle against good teams, especially at the end of games. James's step back is cold blooded. Why do we continue to try and penetrate an over crowded lane because good defenders like Draymond have no fear of a mid-range shot being taken. It's like a pitcher having 3 pitches but only using two of them. Throwing that third pitch makes the other two stronger.
     
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  6. rocketsballin

    rocketsballin Member

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    lol op is fkn dumb as hell. 5/50 from three > 15/40 from two. /moron(morey)ball extremists

    kobe and jordan were horible basketball players because they relied on a mid range game which leads to inefficient shots /moron(morey)ball

    if i miss 10 threes im taking 10 more! /hero(harden)ball

    after guarding 2-4 guys at the same time through the first 3 qtrs, i dont have the energy to shoot a ****in three at the end of the games but they insist that i play 48mpg! /ariza

    shut up an dtalk to bigglydick about the defense /mda to ariza and bev
     
  7. AirBud#10

    AirBud#10 Member

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    It's pretty clear the last 5 minutes of games are not the same as the first 43 (Morey and the team have got to have numbers that show this), and they shouldn't be played the same way.
     
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota Contributing Member

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    A wide open shot at the FT line is a great shot.

    DD
     
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  9. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    I think that we need to incorporate more mid range shots into our offense...especially when we just don't have it from 3. It's good to have a balance and not be so predictable.

    GS and Boston have the most ideal offenses to me...nice ball and player movement and more variety
     
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  10. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    What the OP is talking about is called an externality .

    In terms of pure points on offense , the points per possession ( i.e. Pts * percentage) is a great measure . However , it doesn't take into account things like long rebounds that start fast-breaks for other teams or the hit to confidence we take when we miss shots .

    Also there is truth in the game condensing in the last few minutes .

    The long run and short run are entirely different animals . What would you rather have with 3 minutes left in the game . A 2 pointer at 50 percent or a 3 at 35 ? The math says the 3 , but in reality you take the best shot at getting any points.
     
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  11. Easy

    Easy Very Calm
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    I wonder if Morey has some analysis on the correlation between the percentage of non-layup 2pt shot taken and the efficiency of our offense.

    I would guess a kind of bell-curve where when the team takes lots of non-layup 2pt shots in a game, the offense is inefficient and when they take little to none of those shots in a game, the offense also suffers. But it's just a guess.

    Conventional wisdom tells me that the more weapons you have, including some not-so-efficient ones, the harder for the opponent to defend against you. It is not debatable that the 2pt shot is inefficient compared to the 3pt shot. But is it easier to get open when you are a threat both on 2pters and 3pters, as opposed to only on 3pters?
     
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  12. Jayzers_100

    Jayzers_100 Member
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    Agree with the baseball analogy that even if you have a killer fastball, you have to throw your curve sometimes to keep the defense honest (it pains me to say this because I loathed baseball, but it's an apt comparison)
     
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  13. RiceRockets

    RiceRockets Member

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    Well sir, I think you will find the problem is that there were 4 points inside of the mid-range.
     
  14. smoothie

    smoothie Contributing Member
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    i think the formula can work if its a balanced attack from paint, fts, and 3s. right now its mostly 3s which is what makes us predictable.

    there should be more of an emphasis on getting to the rim and scoring in the paint. most of our scorers are looking to shoot rather than drive. even when they drive they aren't really dunkers which makes it hard to finish in traffic. james, ego, and lou all take layups.

    i think a wing player / forward who can get to the rim and dunk would go a long way in opening up the offense even more. attacking the rim will suck the defense into the paint which will open up the 3, however you've gotta be able to finish at the rim. right now when james, ego, and lou attack the paint the defense stays home on the shooters and dares them to finish over a shot blocker. a guy who can challenge a shot blocker with a dunk will be a threat that has to be stopped before getting into the paint... that's when the defense has to help which opens up the shooters.

    btw i'm not taking anything away from james. he's the best offense in the league. but in crunch time you can't finish in the paint with a layup like he tried against the spurs when he got blocked by kawhi for the win.
     
  15. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    I agree with the predictability part.

    Its harder to guard Spurs and Warriors, especially in the clutch, because they are less predictable.

    They shoot a lot of threes as well but they also mix their offense up well so the defense cannot park at the three point line like they do against us.

    Ultimately, I am more worried about our defense than offense though.

    Teams know we offer very little resistance.
     
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