If you look over the past hour and a half, it has been heading due north. It made the northwest turn this morning around 9:30am and has been gradually inching more to the north. Also, if you look to the northwest of the storm, you can really see how the outflow on that side is being squashed by that trough that is in the central and western Gulf. Plus, the outflow on the northeastern side is really impressive where it was being squished yesterday much the way the northwestern quadrant is today. Even if it wobbled more to the west, there is a big ridge of high pressure sitting over New Mexico and extending all the way into eastern Louisiana and south into portions of the Gulf. It is why we've been getting warmer over the past week and why it has been so still with little breeze. That is acting like a protective bubble for this part of the Gulf of Mexico because low pressure areas like hurricanes cannot enter high pressure areas. My aunt, uncle and cousin live in Mobile. I'm hoping for the best for them.
geeze....who needs the Weather Channel when you've got Jeff and this thread? thank god(or whatever diety) we wont see this one up close....
You and me both. My parents and most of my father's family live there. I'm quite concerned right now.
Emergency Management team called the school today about 1:30. They told us to be prepared for possible voluntary evacs. Also, I was told Port Arthur ISD admins were set to meet with hurricane experts and city officials to determine what they were going to do. One report we heard is that there is a chance it swings a bit more to the west and comes in near Morgan City.
They are just being careful. It isn't going to get near Texas. The ridge to the west of Ivan is much stronger than predicted and most of the models are not predicting a slight northeasterly turn just before it makes landfall. It is currently moving almost due north with just the slightest westerly drift. It is good that they are being prepared especially if you are near the coastline.
Well, it's weakened to a Category 4. "Only" 140 mph winds at the moment and barometric pressure is up to 929 mb.
The pressure was all the way up to 939 earlier today but it has regained a little strength. All indications are that it will get a bit stronger by tomorrow then gradually weaken as it gets closer to shore. The water between the hurricane and the coast is very warm for a while then much cooler closer to the coast and there is some shear close to the coast as well that should diminish it a bit. If I had to make a bet, I'd say it goes in very near the Alabama/Mississippi border at a strong cat. 3, maybe borderline cat. 4.
One near Beaumont. We have had evacuations in the area in the past and it takes a good 10-20 hours to get most of the population out of the area. They try to plan accordingly and they usually err on the side of caution. The problem with that is they always call for evacs early and then when we don't get hit people complain that they should have waited. But if they wait and we get hit people don't get out. I was not really worried but a couple of days fishing at the lake would have been okay by me too.
Damn!!! That is awesome! Looks like Ivan is strong enough to make landfall as a strong cat. 4. It hasn't lost strength and should hit some warm water then shear before making landfall. But, those should about cancel each other out. The fact that they are predicting it will be a hurricane 12 hours after landfall is remarkable. For those who live in Appalachia, be REALLY careful. Most of the forecasts are predicting that the storm (at that point, a depression) will stall in your area and could cause some serious flooding. My family is leaving Mobile in the morning for Memphis - the closest place they could find hotel space.
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This storm is so large that it appears to be gouging its own course ~ watch out New Orleans a direct hit would be catastrophic…
i remember reading an article a while back saying that new orleans is going to be underwater for sure, at some point...for good. anyone else know anything about that? not a matter of if...but when.
The scary part about New Orleans being hit is that all of their corpses are above ground. Doesn't paint a pretty picture.
i had a friend who toured the cemetery #1 just a couple of months ago there and said the bodies lowest to the ground already have water standing up near them.
swoly. lol nice.. I had a similiar situation in class last semester about whether or not to get something signed by the baseball player who was the 6th overall pick in the draft this year.. I finaly just had someone else on the team I know get something signed by him.. didn't want to be asking him for autographs... especially since he was in the class with me and actually in school again this semester.. after he sigend with indians .. kept going this semseter..
