I find this site to be the best for tracking. http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#ivan Ivan is at 167 MPH and 912 mb and has taken a jib due west.
I have actually come to really enjoy http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ particularly because it has all of the latest model tracks for forecasting. It made a pretty good bump to the west today, but, looking at the satellite now, you can see it wobbling back west-northwest. You can also see the banding being squished in the upper right quadrant a bit as a result of that high pressure ridge that is extending from the Florida peninsula to the Bahamas. It is also the reason it has slowed to under 10mph. But, the low pressure system they've been predicting for days has moved out of the Mississippi valley and is moving toward the Gulf. As it does, that high will move east and weaken and allow Ivan to track north. At this point, the real issue is how long it will take before it makes that turn and how much of its easterly direction it will recover before making landfall. In reality, the forecast track has only shifted a couple hundred miles to the west in the past few days, but that obviously makes a big difference to people in Florida and Alabama in particular.
which side of the hurricane is more powerful and damaging? isn't it the S/W side more powerful and the N/E more wet?
The upper right quadrant of the storm generally contains the most rain and wind. Anything front side from middle to the right is going to be the worst.
Along with what Jeff said, the strongest wind forces are around the eye, but the most vicious quadrant is the NE quadrant. It's here that you find the majority of tornados being generated.
Looks like the Cubans got lucky. Will the storm be stronger when it hits the States now that it won't hit the mountains in Cuba? Or will it have recovered it's strength regardless?
Hmm, looks like Florida State is going to get raped twice in a week. Man, what an amazing game that was; loudest sporting event I've EVER been to (the last 2 minutes and overtime that is). Unreal. Stupid hurricane was supposed to cancel classes here and most assumed it would (like me), so I'm finishing an English paper at 3:30 in the freakin' morning. So this darn storm is headed straight for the permanent address; hard to imagine a hurricane in West-central Alabama.
It looks like more and more that it is heading for my boyhood home of Mobile, AL. We watched the Weather Channel in Frisco this weekend and every time I saw the cone of Ivan's future heading, Mobile is steadily moving to the center of it. Ivan's track is similar to the one that Frederic took back in 1979, a hurricane we rode out in the hall of our modest house while the winds howled outside. I was 11 and I was scared to death. We didn't have power for over two months after the storm and we had to drive over to my grandparents' house for showers and hot meals.
they're saying there's about a 5% chance of it hitting the Texas coast. of course, in a few hours, that may be a 15% chance.
My wife works with a bunch of people in NOLA, and they're all stressed out about it. It looks like it has finally taken that turn to the NW though. I'm saying Alabama.
The latest 3 and 5 day tracking maps : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/070303W.gif http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/070303W5.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html and http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html from http://www.noaa.gov/ show cool movement towards eek southern states. Check the "Forecast" checkboxes. It's cool to see if it coincides.
