That's not the Gulf Stream that travels along the ITCZ. The Gulf Stream starts pretty much where it's named in the Gulf of Mexico. It flows northeastward across the Atlantic and provides Northern Europe with remarkably mild weather considering it's latitude.
Yes but if the water flows out of the Gulf of Mexico what replaces it?? It is replaced by water that flows up from the Equatorial currents which originate in the Mid Atlantic(look at the graphic on the page I posted). Which answers the original question posted earlier in the thread, as to where the Gulf Stream waters are heated.
Jeff, we just needed to ask a 5th grader. Thanks Castor. Curious, ya'll teaching about the Gulf Stream shutdowns also?
Actually we aren't, we only really mention the gulfstream, although I really enjoy the weather units there just isn't enough time to teach in depth on weather and still hit everything we have to cover for TAKS (although that is probably something for another thread). Back on topic: The 3 day track for Ivan has it much further to the West than at this time yesterday.
Yup, it has shifted. All of the models but the NOGAPS, however, are in pretty close agreement about a turn to the north and northeast after 72 hours. They all have Ivan paralleling the Florida coast and going into the northhern-most portion of the western Florida coast. The NOGAPS, which has fluctuated quite a bit all along, is now forecasting a more northerly trajectory heading toward the Florida panhandle very near the Florida/Alabama border meaning Mobile, AL could easily be considered in that area. All of the models are in excellent agreement on the track of the storm over the next 48-72 hours. After that they all show a northward motion, but it just depends on how far the shift to the east will be.
Horrible, horrible, horrible. The hurricane after weakening for about a day with the central pressure rising to 940 millibars has come back with a vengeance. The central pressure now being reported at 927 millibars by the hurricane hunters. It's strengthening right at the doorstep of Jamaica. People in Jamaica are not heeding warnings to evacuate low lying areas. Link Link This is going to be an absolute tragedy.
Holy Jeebus. Great, scary image. I am really concerned for the people in Jamaica. So many poor people living right on the beach saying they don't want to leave for fear their homes will be looted. And Kingston has 23-foot waves hitting the shores already.
Odd how some water vapor and wind seems to become a living entity. Jamaica is going to be in bad shape. I wish we were a little more helpful to our needy neighbors in their time of extra need.
Too true. I remember thinking the same thing, standing on the coast outside of Carmel, in Northern California. It comes in all forms, good and bad. Even something as terrible as this storm can have a perverse beauty, if you are able to watch from a position of relative safety. Sorry, guess I'm off on a tangent. edit: that photo is bloody amazing. edit-2: VooDooPope, I just realized I posted the same thing you did about that shot of Ivan, lol!
WOW. Thanks for the new desktop. What an amazing image. I feel for the people in the path of that beast.
Deck, Why were you thinking about a hurricane while gazing at the Pacific? Was there a storm out by Hawaii (like the one that hit us went we vacationed there )? Isn't Carmel nice? A good friend of ours has a home on Spyglass.
Looks like Ivan just missed Jamaica... With winds of 155 mph and a death toll already at 27, Ivan gave Jamaica's 2.7 million people a small, last-minute reprieve when its center took a sudden westward turn. That kept the most catastrophic winds off the south coast and out of the capital, Kingston. But the verdant, mountainous island still got hammered. link
Winds up to 165mph! Cayman islands are directly in the path of this monster. 000 WTNT61 KNHC 111931 TCUAT BULLETIN HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004 DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB AND THE ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 165 MPH...270 KM/HR. THESE NEW VALUES OR FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. FORECASTER AVILA
I would think it would weaken a bit running over Cuba (if it goes over... who knows with these things). After that Alabama, Florida, etc. look out. Hopefully the thing doesn't decide to head into the Gulf of Mexico on a path toward Texas.
Cuba will have some effect, but there is also some sheering in the atmosphere in the Gulf, so it will likely decrease as it gets closer to the US. It will still be a major storm, but how big will be dependent upon the sheer it encounters and how long it stays in the Gulf. There is a weak disturbance that is passing us over the next day and into the Gulf. That trough will keep the hurricane from getting too far to the west. The other reason why it is staying WNW at the moment is a weak high pressure area over Florida that is moving slowly off to the east. As it moves, it will steer the hurricane between it and the disturbance to the west, which is why all the models still forecast a northwest or even northerly track.
