Based on the noon update, looks like the models are in pretty good consensus for the next few days moving Ivan over central Cuba. The question is whether it continues north and east or north and west. I'm guessing that it will be Saturday before we can determine a more probable course. Still a cat. 5, but as the forecaster at NOAA said, storms rarely stay that big for long and going over Cuba will definitely effect its strength. Nevertheless, it's still a big storm and everyone from Mississippi to the Bahamas should keep a serious eye on this one.
Jeff, any chance you can stick [Weather] at the front of the thread title so it will be easier to spot? And the guy that runs the site Pole posted in teh Frances thread is an interseting guy. He has a computer show on the radio here. He is very knowledgeable abou ta ton of stuff.
Or Jeff could be dressing up his army of cats like they dress up Radar the Weather Dog....however, this could lead to multiple scratches.
Louis L'Amour wrote a terrific western, Matagorda, which used the storm that hit Indianola in 1875 as a backdrop. I highly recommend it for those who like the genre. Ivan destroyed 90% of the homes in Grenada, including the Prime Minister's. Incredible.
Yes, and lets get it sticky status too since we'll be following this the next several days. During the offseason, the Hangout deserves the same privileged treatment as the GARM
http://www.aberdeennews.com/mld/aberdeennews/news/nation/9603303.htm Posted on Tue, Sep. 07, 2004 New weather patterns turn Florida into a hurricane magnet BY MARTIN MERZER Knight Ridder Newspapers MIAMI - (KRT) - Charley, Frances and Ivan. Three major hurricanes. Two assaults on Florida already and possibly a third by next week. Get used to it. This is the new normal. Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet. ``People are suddenly alert, suddenly paying attention,'' said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division on Virginia Key. ``They can see now that we are in an active era. ... - People should realize that it is very unlikely that Frances is the last storm the U.S. will see this year.'' Which brings us to Hurricane Ivan. Though subject to considerable error, long-range forecasts are consistently suggesting that Ivan will strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday as a vicious Category 4 hurricane. The outlook improved slightly for South Florida, but the southern half of the state remained in the five-day cone of probability. When asked if Florida can endure another hurricane, Gov. Jeb Bush pointed Tuesday to a button he wore on his shirt. It said: ``I survived damn near everything.'' ``We will survive whatever comes at us,'' he said. ``We're an incredibly resilient state. I'm not being defiant; I'm only suggesting we can meet this challenge.'' If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30. ``The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years.'' A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes - with winds higher than 110 mph - attacked Florida. ``And that doesn't include the other less powerful hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970. Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists. ``The implications are much-increased damage when storms make landfall,'' Goldenberg said, ``and the potential for major loss of life in the event of an evacuation foul-up during a rapidly intensifying storm.'' He has more than academic interest in this. Goldenberg and his family were nearly killed when Hurricane Andrew crushed their South Miami-Dade home in 1992. Research he later conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for decades. These patterns, unrelated to the current concern over global warming, are caused by regular cycles of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, such as unusually warm water in hurricane breeding grounds. One period of ``hyperactivity'' ended in 1970 and was followed by a 24-year lull. The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to their report, which was peer-reviewed and published in 2001 in the prestigious journal Science. In the last few years, and particularly this year, the depressing statistics related to the number, power and duration of storms appear to verify the report's depressing conclusions, especially when major hurricanes are considered. This is significant because, though relatively few in number, major hurricanes - Category 3 or higher - cause 80 percent of all damage from tropical weather. ``We're not talking about stronger hurricanes than in the past,'' Goldenberg said. ``We're talking about more of the stronger hurricanes.'' The long-term average, including relatively quiet periods and busy periods, is 2.6 major hurricanes a year. Between 1971 and 1994, only four years had more than two major hurricanes and none had more than three. Between 1995 and 2003, a much shorter period, seven years had three or more major hurricanes. And we've already had four major storms this year - Alex, Charley, Frances and Ivan. All the other numbers tell the same tale: total storms, total strength, total duration, Caribbean hurricanes, October and November hurricanes, each at least 100 percent - in some cases 500 or 1,000 percent - higher since the lull. ``That's a humongous increase,'' Goldenberg said. ``This is striking. This is not a little signal. It would be like saying the average temperature is 15 degrees warmer than last summer. It's huge. It's huge.'' Worse, atmospheric steering currents have changed to our disadvantage. During the beginning of this active period, a persistent and beneficial bend in the jetstream carried hurricanes away from Florida. Now, that phenomenon had disappeared, replaced by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that is pushing them toward Florida. What can you do? Only one thing: Prepare. ``People should realize that, active year or slow year, we can still get hit,'' Goldenberg said. ``Remember, Andrew hit during a below-average year. The higher activity is just all the more reason to remind people that they can't let their guard down.''
Man, these weekly hurricanes are great; at least they are when one has a 4-page English paper due Monday and hasn't started... Thank god the game will be played tomorrow!
Jeff, If I am not mistaken Hurricanne Allen hit 190 mph in the Gulf as a Cat 5, then parked off the coast at Kingsville and weakened before coming ashore. I just remember it covering the entire Gulf of Mexico...it was nasty. DD
Everytime a hurricane gets to brewing, it always makes me nervous. I live about 20 miles from Boca Chica beach and my subdivision is surrounded by man made resacas. The last few hard rains we've had have ended up in some flooding, mostly on the streets surrounding the subdivision. At least I'm prepped as far as boarding up the windows. I cut 1/2 plywood to shape for all the windows and doors to the house and they are easily attached using Plylox clips that I purchased at Home Depot. I can have the house bparded up ready within an hour.
I was 10 when Allen missed us down here in Brownsville. I remember all the talk of the wind meters snapping and I was thinking I wouldn;t make it through the night. It was supposed to hit in Brownsville, but I recall it just skimming us.
I recall Alicia tearing up our fences and trees. A baby-twister passed over our neighbor's yard. With Allen, we saw the pictures of it covering the Gulf took-off for Austin (a SOLID line of headlights the entire way!), where we watched a tornado hit the airport while we were having breakfast at an IHOP. An eerie shot from inside Allen's eye: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/flight/fly00227.htm Interesting/predictive story from 2001: http://www.cnn.com/2001/WEATHER/07/19/hurricanes/ Scientists: Monster hurricanes could hit U.S. ... A hurricane causing $50 billion in damage and hundreds to thousands of deaths is quite possible in the next ten or 20 years, according to Landsea. "I think at this point the U.S. is so developed and there's so many people along the coast that just about anywhere is a major disaster ready to happen." Scientists say the Earth's climate goes through cycles, but they don't know why. Right now, Atlantic water temperatures are slightly warmer than usual, by just half a degree Fahrenheit. And in general, there is less wind shear. The current conditions resemble those in 1900 when Galveston, Texas, was nearly obliterated, and the time between the 1920s and 1960s when hurricanes repeatedly slammed into Florida and the disastrous Yankee Clipper hit New York. The period from 1965 to 1995 saw opposite conditions, cooler water and more wind shear, neither of which fosters hurricane development. Times have changed. From Florida to New England, everywhere along the East Coast is now at increased risk of a major hurricane, the scientists said.
Hurricane Allen had a lowest central pressure of 899 millibars and max winds of 165mph. It did weaken significantly before landfall, which spared the Brownsville area from tremendous damage. Allen 1980
Some screenwriter in Holloywood is foaming at the mouth right now. The Spiral Doom By "I Write Crappy Screenplays" Premise: A monster hurricane the size of the entire eastern U.S. seaboard is about to hit America. Hundreds of people attempt to flee the area. Dr. Neil Frank's son, helping evacuate people from NYC, gets caught up in rioting, where he meets the President's daughter. As they fall in love, they stumble upon a Segway construction facility, when a thought comes to them: the jammed highway problem can be eliminated if everyone rides Segway's instead. As the massive hurricane barrels down upon the coast, millions of people ride of on Segway's which miraculously survive the 500+ mph winds due to its amazing balancing mechanics and bring people to safety (except for the 5 Segway's that break and get caught up in the Spiral of DOOM). Neil Frank, Jr. survives and becomes the next President. -------------------- Thoughts?
I knew they did, but I didn't know they had this type of pattern. Is it every 24 yrs? Every 12? 8? 6? 4? 2? Just curious..
