Looks like now it will be on land by tonight somewhere around the Texas/Louisiana border and then meander around east and central Texas. We are on the dry side of the storm, so probably very little rain at first, but once it gets into central Texas, it will probably start pulling moisture up out of the Gulf and we'll end up getting rain. We need it at the moment anyway. Very little wind in this storm. It is BARELY registering from that standpoint. But, even weak storms and depressions can drop a ton of rain.
Gusts now to 55, but sustained winds at around 40mph at surface level. From the NHC: WHILE IVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER...ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING UP LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. Winds from this thing extend only a few miles out from the "center" of the storm which is actually to the south and west of the main portion of rainfall. It is expected to weaken into a depression within about 6 hours of landfall and weaken even further into a low pressure area within 12-18 hours of landfall. The main issue for this storm will be rain and high tides.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
When was that updated? On the weather band they are saying as of 1pm sustained winds of 50mph and tropical storm winds extend 70 miles from the center. I couldn't understand where they said it is expected to make land fall.
Damn, now they've practically got it projected over Corpus! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W+GIF/222258W.gif And what looks like the 'eye' or at least center is practically in Louisiana: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
All forecasts show it moving in right around the LA/TX border. Note that everything to the west of it currently is getting no rain. It should move in tonight - probably by 1 or 2am. We probably will start to see rain tomorrow as moisture from this thing gets sucked up from the Gulf of Mexico. It will meander around southern and southwestern Texas befroe heading back into the Gulf and ultimately being picked up by a cold front and finally taken out of the area. Crazy storm.
We have yet to see a drop <knocks on wood>. And to think our building shut down at 7pm last night b/c of the threat of flooding. It's been beautiful outside. I drove home last night with the top down in my car and did the same this morning! <knocks on more wood>
What did I tell you guys? We are still going to get some rain, but we really need the 1-3 inches they are predicting. What I loved was the horror in the voices of local media members over this thing. You would have thought the world was coming to an end.
I know conditions aren't great in the Gulf for storm formation, but it would be entertaining to see this storm complete it's circle and return to the Gulf again to strengthen. What a bizarre storm
