Just saw on the news that the path is bringing it to Galveston. Maybe more than 10 inches of rain and very high tides.
Yup, we gonna get some rain this weekend. Fortunately, it should be a minimal tropical storm when it gets here. We'll get some rain and a little wind, but mainly a lot of rain. The forecast track has it going just north of Galveston. This storm is HEAVILY concentrated on the north and east side. Everything south and west of the center is exceedingly dry. So, if it goes even 50 miles to the north of Galveston, we'll barely get anything, but if it goes in 50 miles to the south, we'll get drenched.
http://www.chron.com Ivan's remnants swing back into Gulf, threaten to develop By ALLAN TURNER and RUTH RENDON Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle The low pressure remains of Hurricane Ivan that wandered in the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday swelled into a tropical depression that's expected to assault the Texas and Louisiana coasts as early as Thursday. The storm, with sustained winds of 38 mph or less, likely will make landfall between western Louisiana and Houston late Thursday or early Friday, said Tom Bradshaw, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's southern regional office in Fort Worth. Bradshaw said the storm was thought to be strengthening and would be upgraded to tropical storm status if its sustained winds were found to top 39 mph. Several inches of rainfall are expected when the storm reaches land. High tides associated with the storm Wednesday washed onto low-lying Todville Road in Seabrook and along "The Point," an inlet along the Clear Creek Channel that is home to several restaurants and seafood stores. Several roads near Jamaica Beach on Galveston Island's west end also were flooded. The Weather Service's League City office has issued a coastal flood watch for Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Harris, Jackson and Matagorda counties. National Hurricane Center officials were still debating late Wednesday whether the depression in the Gulf was actually associated with the Category 4 hurricane that struck the Alabama and Florida coasts last week. "After a considerable and sometimes animated in-house discussion of the demise of Ivan ... the National Hurricane Center has decided to call the tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico Tropical Depression Ivan," meteorologists stated on the hurricane center's Web site. By Wednesday, driven by steering currents in the upper atmosphere, Son of Ivan was back in the Gulf of Mexico -- about 200 miles southeast of New Orleans and already causing flooding in some areas of Seabrook and Galveston Island. Meteorologist Bill Read said easterly winds were causing tide levels to run 1.5 to 2.5 feet above normal along Texas's upper coast. The problem could be enhanced, he warned, during today's normal morning high tide cycles. Weather watchers say the current storm is a fragment of low pressure that separated from Ivan as the main body of the one-time hurricane moved through the mid-Atlantic states and into the Atlantic Ocean. "Several days ago it moved out to sea," Bradshaw said. "At that point, it had weakened substantially. It essentially was heavy rain." Once offshore, though, upper-level steering currents brought a portion of the storm southward along the coast of the Carolinas and across Florida into the Gulf. Once over warm Gulf waters, it began to gain strength, showing the telltale circulating pattern found in tropical storms and hurricanes. Jeremy Nelson, meteorologist with Weather Central Inc., said the storm is in a new life cycle. "Once a hurricane hits land, it weakens to a tropical storm, then a tropical depression and ends in an area of low pressure," Nelson said. "Ivan had gone through its cycle, but it's almost like it's starting over again since it's back over water." A Category 4 hurricane with winds topping 131 mph for much of its life, Ivan killed at least 70 people in the Caribbean before it hit Gulf Shores, Ala., and the Florida Panhandle about 3 a.m. last Thursday. The storm killed at least 52 people in the United States as it moved through the upper South and into the mid-Atlantic states. If the current tropical depression becomes as tropical storm, Bradshaw said, it likely will be named Matthew.
location of the tropical storm is almost exactly like the great storm of 83.i was 6 yrs old.its amazing the way this storm is working!ive been wanting to be a meteoroligist(sp lol)since alicia.i was a child prodigy cause of that storm.ivan will be nothing more than a very weak tropical storm cause of what soemone exactly said earlier the reason...too much wind sheer and if u the front thats close to it is drawing moisture from the storm as the gets closer to each other over us. they front doesent have to meet up with the storm to make an impact on its strengthing.the thing is not the winds but the rain.so we need to cross our fingers.im not sayin it will be an allison but it could cause flood damage.
This could be interesting... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/222313W5.gif
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/US...harts&product=HurTrack5&prodnav=none&pid=none wow. check out the loopty loop on that thing. like a skip-to-my-lou spin move.
Looks like it may hit to the east of us, which means we'll probably barely even get rain from it. This storm has a very dry western side and it will need to hit us head on or to our south for us to get a bunch of rain. It will freak out the tides a bit in the bay and on the coast, so folks there will have to be careful.
Once it hits land, might it not act differently... i.e. send bands out? Our chance of rain in Austin has jumped from 30 to 60%, and we still are expected to be on the southwest side of the storm.
The imagine behind your link changes, but I imagine you were talking about the one where hurricane Ivan went up through Alabama and then changed to a storm and then down to a depression just north of the northern Alabama border. Intellicast then drew a line down from that point to the Gulf where Ivan started up again. That is NOT a correct drawing of the path that Ivan actually took. They were simply drawing a line from the point where the NHC stopped tracking the storm to the point where they started tracking it again. A truer picture would show that these were just remnants that blew off the North eastern seaboard, tracked down the coast, and then crossed over the Florida peninsula and then back into the Gulf. It was a much bigger loop than the one that old drawing indicated.
Possibly, but keep in mind that the center of this storm, which is where the dot is on the NHC tracking maps, is about 100 miles to the southwest of the storm activity. It doesn't mean we won't get rain. It just means that the heaviest stuff will be to the east. Now, once it passes the coast and moves inland, it will pick up moisture from the gulf and drop a bunch of rain. This should be of particular concern to central Texas where it is forecast to head and possible stall for a couple of days. We're all definitely going to get a bunch of rain over the weekend.
Weather channel shows that thing taking a more westerly track. Looks like N. Houston and Austin will be right in its path.
one of the guys I work with is from Grand Cayman he showed me these pics today of the damage Ivan did http://blueoceanart.com/ivan/
Pretty sad to see windows boarded-up on homes missing roofs and walls. Wonder why we don't hear more about neighbors who have destruction on this scale?
I had a weird feeling that Ivan was going to come here from the beginning. I told all my friends whom said I was crazy. Looks like my predicition is coming true..........all be it a week and a 1/2 late, and not near as strong.
Humor from the LangaList, a computer-oriented newsletter: Several of my family members and friends live in the Pensacola, Florida, area that was hit hard by a recent hurricane. After a few days of shock, and a few more days without power or phone service, a few harbingers of normalcy began to emerge; a sense of humor among the first. The cleanup may take months, but the spirit of the people there will recover sooner, if this note from Regina Barry (one of my sisters, who lives there) is any indication: 30 Things Hurricanes Teach Us 1. An oak tree on the ground looks four times bigger than it did standing up 2. Even after all these years it is still nice to spend time with Col. Mustard in the ballroom with the lead pipe. 3. When house hunting look for closets with lots of leg room. 4. Water from the shower is much colder than water from the kitchen sink--and tastes just as bad. 5. AA, C and D are the only alphabet we need ( batteries ) 6. The four-way stop is still an ingenious reflection of civility. 7. Radio can be the best way to watch television. 8. Chain-saw wielding men are nothing to be afraid of. 9. SUV's are the best makeshift tents on the market. 10. You can use your washing machine as a cooler. 11. It's your God given right to sit on your back porch and eat Chinese takeout by candlelight in your underwear. 12. We shouldn't complain about "useless" tools in the garage-- we actually DO need a generator 13. You can' t spell "priceless" without I-C-E. 14. Downed power lines make excellent security systems. 15. Lakes can generate waves. 16. Gasoline is a value at any price 17. Cell phones: Breaking up isn't hard to do. 18. The life blood of any disaster recovery is COFFEE 19. The need for your dog to go out and take care of business is inversely proportional to the severity of the storm. 20. Candlelight is better than Botox--- it takes years off your appearance 21. Air Conditioning: BEST. INVENTION. EVER. 22. Water is a comfort food. But 3-day-old Cheetos are too. 23. Shadow animals on the wall---still fun. 24. No matter how hard the wind blows, roadside campaign signs will survive. 25. You should never admit to having power at your house in the presence of co-workers or neighbors who do not. 26. There's a plus to having NOTHING in the refrigerator. 27. Getting through the day should be an Olympic event. 28. The movie theater can be a most pleasant place, even if the feature is Alien vs. Predator 29. Somebody's got it worse. 30. Somebody's got it better. Obviously, they're getting preferential treatment. Click to email this item to a friend http://langa.com/sendit2.htm
Everyone has been calling it TS Ivan this morning. But now, the Chron is saying that they will be changing the name to TS MAtthew.
