With all the low pressure systems that have been camped above Texas, I would not be surprised if we get a storm or two that come crashing through the middle to lower Texas coast this year. Those low pressure systems just draw in the moisture..... DD
So far it's been really quiet. Both in the Atlantic and Pacific (even in western Pacific). The only place to see any sort of extensive tropical "action" this year has been the Indian Ocean. BTW, I consider myself to be a fanatic when it comes to meteorology, specially Hurricanes. Is there any one else here that shares the same fascination as I do?
Uh....did you read Jeff's post (#19)? He actually mentioned African dust... If that's not a serious weather nerd for you, I don't know what is.
i am, as well. i was 9 years old when hurricane alicia spawned off a twister that took the roof off my house while i was in it. since then, i've been more than casually interested.
Kinda. No doubt that low pressure systems have the tendency to attract other centers of low pressure, but the single most important factor in the track of a storm is ridges of HIGH pressure near it. Storms are pulled north towards the pole. That is their natural track once they get outside of a region in the Atlantic near the equator where the pull towards both polls in nearly equal. After that, it turns north and a combination of steering currents and the location of high pressure to the north guide the storm. Low pressure can have the effect of pulling a system in, but they have to be in fairly close proximity to one another and even then, it is more a guiding force. If there is even a small break in a high pressure system to the north, storms will make that northerly turn into that gap. A good example of this was a recent tropical wave near Bermuda. There was a pretty large trough of low pressure off the east coast at the time - remnants of a front that pushed off the coast. Rather than heading into it, the storm just moved north and dissipated because the ridge of high pressure to its north was far enough to the east to allow that movement.
To respond to Jeff's #19 post, I think the main reason for the lack of tropical activity thus far, seems to be strong upper level wind over the entire Atlantic basin. However, I dont have any statistical data to prove this (obviously). But it is interesting to know that the African sahara dust over the Atlantic also factored in the water temperatures in the mid Atlantic. Not to mention also retaining the dryness of air over the same region. So thanks to Jeff for pointing out the "dust" factor. Keep in mind that the Cape Verde season doesn't start heating up until august. But back to my previous point, in 2005 there were hardly any strong upper level winds throught the season. That coupled with very warm water temps. caused for the record breaking immergance of storms.
Bingo. Last year was the reverse. We had an El Nino event which caused a lot of wind shear over the Atlantic Basin. This year, we've had higher than normal shear and higher than normal levels of dust in the atmosphere keeping SST's cooler. You are right about August, however. I still think we'll see quite a few storms. I was looking at the computer models earlier and they are all forecasting the Bermuda high moving slightly east, which is good news because that will allow storms to re-curve out to sea. However, there is evidence that the high may move back over the east coast, which would force storms back towards the US coastline. The Caribbean is super warm right now - warmer even than 2005. BUT, there is still significant wind shear. When that dies down in the next couple weeks, things could pick up. One interesting note...I did some research last year and found that September 20 is the cutoff date for hurricanes and the Texas Gulf Coast. ZERO major hurricanes and only a couple cat 1 storms have hit the Texas coast after that date. In reality, once we pass the 15th, we're in good shape even though Rita came just after that.
Jeff's true identity revealed: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5000232.html Storm season quiet so far, but peak nears Most hurricanes form after Aug. 15, and ominous signs seen in the tropics By ERIC BERGER Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle The 2007 hurricane season, having produced just two minor storms, has come in like a lamb. But don't take comfort yet. More than 90 percent of Atlantic hurricanes develop between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15. And if that weren't enough, consider the 2004 hurricane season with its eight hurricanes, four of which battered Florida. Its first storm didn't form until Aug. 1. "Really, you can't tell what a hurricane season is going to do until August," said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist with The Weather Underground, a popular Web site for tracking hurricane activity. There are reasons to hope this season will be like last year, which produced just nine named storms and relatively little damage, but there are also more ominous signs in the tropics as this season approaches its peak. First, the good news. Scientists had worried about La Niña, unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, developing by now. This pattern, which hasn't yet appeared, has historically augured a fierce Atlantic season. Additionally, sea surface temperatures remain near average across much of the Atlantic tropics, providing less fuel for hurricanes. That's partly because of large African dust clouds that have blocked the sunlight and kept a lid on ocean warming. This dust, largely from the Sahara desert, also inhibits storm formation. "But this year probably isn't going to be like 2006. I don't think we're going to luck out like that," Masters said. Compared with last year, the disruptive force of wind shear in the atmosphere is lower. Of still greater concern, in the northwest Caribbean Sea as well as parts of the Gulf of Mexico, the warm waters run deeper than even in 2005. "This means that a storm moving into the western Caribbean and/or the Gulf of Mexico over the next few months may have a good chance of becoming a major hurricane, as long as wind shear is low in the region," said Chris Hebert, lead hurricane forecaster for the private, Houston-based service ImpactWeather. Updated forecasts soon Next week the two most notable hurricane season forecasts — done by Colorado State University's William Gray and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — will be updated. Both predicted up to 17 named storms this year before the season began. Because of the season's sluggish start, both forecasts are expected to be revised downward by a storm or two. A quiet beginning to this season may lull some into a sense of complacency. A Harvard University survey of 5,000 coastal residents living in Southern states conducted in late June and early July found that, if government officials called for an evacuation this year, 31 percent would not leave. That figure is up from 23 percent in a similar survey done last year. "Public officials need to be concerned that the further we get from the severe hurricanes of 2005, the less willing people are to evacuate," said Robert Blendon, the Harvard professor who conducted the study. In Houston, registration for a program to evacuate those who would need help fleeing from a hurricane — for which residents can register by calling 211 — has fallen from last year. In 2006, the program's first year, about 4,000 people registered for the service, said Sharon Nalls, emergency management coordinator for the city. This year, 3,015 people have registered. She's not ready to attribute the decline to complacency. "There could be lots of reasons, maybe that people have made plans since last year," she said. There is one certainty about this season. It won't be like 2005, when a record 27 named storms formed. At this point in 2005, Category 4 Hurricane Dennis had already caused about $5 billion in damages and Category 5 Hurricane Emily had broken Dennis' record for July's strongest Atlantic hurricane ever. And Tropical Storm Gert — that season's seventh tropical system — had just formed.
Our company had the weather underground as their default weather provider when I was interning for them in the summer of 2005. It was cool because Jeff Masters would provide an update everyday (sometimes multiple updates for the big storms) in his blog forecasting each storm, and literally hundreds of people would then include their own forecast in the comments section of the blog. His website is quite possibly the most interactive weather related website out there.
Dudes one of my favorite exchanges ever was watching that dork-off between Jeff and Orange about African dust. That was stellar. And I mean 'dork' in the most respectful way imaginable, not being ugly. It was just like two people that had a much more than casual knowledge of a subject stumbled into a forum that spent a thousand posts about cat poop. I felt privileged to have been privy to it. Now - my 2 cents....I am glad that last year was a joke for hurricanes because I am one of those goofy bastards that does not believe in human-contributed global warming. I know, I know - I am a Neanderthal but whatever. I don't believe in it and think the scientists are finding facts to support their funding and now most of those scientists are my age or right around there and I know I grew up with my elementary, middle, and high school teachers telling me about Global Warming (throughout the early 80s) so I know those scientists went into their collegiate studies with this preconception..so anyway. Global warming is horsecrap to me. I loved it that Al Gore movie came out in a year that was holistically calm. If he had done that untimely movie before Katrina and all of that drama then boy he would've convinced even more people! Anyway - Great stuff Jeff and Orange. I wish I could snort some african dust. see if it is better than the columbian and peruvian stuff the dancers sell.
