Not really. Alicia formed in the Bay of Campeche and moved almost straight north before turning northwest into Galveston. Also, that was a late-season hurricane that sat in the super warm waters of the southern gulf for several days. The gulf is still very cool this time of year and not particularly conducive to extreme strengthening. When I say they pegged the area, back almost a week ago the probability for Houston was equal to Brownsville. It will almost assuredly make landfall between those two locations. That's pretty damn good considering the distance and volatile conditions.
I live in Sugar Land and dont really know what to expect of this storm. But whatever the case the storm shouldnt be to bad. Before I lived in Texas I lived in Miami, Florida. Everything was going well we moved out of a small house and my parents just bought a brand new one. unfortunately we ran into a pretty big problem HURRICANE ANDREW!!!(yes we stayed thru the Hurricane) Talk about distruction that hurricane practically destroyed ALL of Miami. The reason we moved to Texas was in large part due to this hurricane. Just be glad Texas wont be getting hit by this monster!
Alicia hit August 18, 1983, right in the middle of the hurricane season. Hard to call it a late season storm. After forming just south of Louisiana on the Aug. 15, 1983, Alicia drifted westward and intensified quickly into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on the west end of Galveston Island in the early morning hours of Aug. 18.
Jeff: Maybe I'm missing something...or just being argumentative D )...but pegging virtually the entire Texas coast isn't much of an accomplishment. If that thing hits Brownsville or goes in to Northern Mexico, we feel virtually nothing. If it goes in at Freeport or Galveston, it's a whole different story. That would be particularly so if it were a stronger storm. The distance between Brownsville and Galveston is pretty great...if it were going in further east that would be the difference between it going in at louisiana or alabama. Northern Mexico and Brownsville were told as late as Saturday that it was going in there....the guy on the late news here on Saturday night kept talking about how this didn't appear likely to affect Houston weather at all. I'd say things have changed considerably. And that's what I meant about Alicia. They had it pegged for Louisiana. They told us we would be on the clean side of the storm. On further review, they were wrong. We were nailed. And that was VERY late in the game before it turned. There was zero...and I mean zero...consideration for it turning. It surprised everyone. Since mid-week last week we've been hearing about a westward turn..it did...briefly on Saturday morning. When I went to bed last night it was headed northwest....when I woke up it was headed northwest. But before I left the house at 7, a new report came up said it was heading, north/northwest. They do as good a job as they can possibly do. I'm not criticizing them at all. These things are just entirely unpredictable...and again, I wouldn't said they "nailed it" when they gave themselves the ENTIRE Texas coast as a margin of error.
Yep, we were having a hurricane party about 2 months after graduation when Alicia came thru. thats the only way I remember what part of the year it came in. (short of actually looking it up) Fox just popped up with a warning...we are officially under a Tropical Storm warning and the counties to our West on the coast are under a Hurricane warning.
omar -- you should have been here when Gilbert was headed directly our way. that was some scary stuff. highest sustained winds and gusts ever recorded from an atlantic storm. it ended up turning big time into Mexico...would have been a nightmare for the country's 4th largest city. an absolute nightmare. sustained winds near 200mph, if i remember right. gusts well over that.
That's right. Houston probably would have looked like Homestead, Florida (after Andrew) if Gilbert had hit directly. That hurricane was enormous and quite frightening to watch as it approached.
yeah! it ended up being the prettiest day of the year. they came on the loudspeaker at school and told us we wouldn't have school the following day...ended up being just amazing. i remember i played football with a group of friends that day.
gilbert: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1988gil15xx.jpg http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1988gilbert.gif In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24 hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s (110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period. http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project96/pd_proj2.html Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was the most intense tropical cyclone yet observed in the Atlantic Basin
We are now in the thick of the shizzznit...most probable landfall location is now Matagorda, and voluntary evacuations have begun in Galveston.
Up, east, backwards, forwards, I know that this storm went through Cancun but shouldn't it be sober by now?
Just saw on the weather channel that they aren't even sure, due to the large amounts of dry air pouring into the area, that Claudette will even become a hurricane by landfall. They said it probably would but only at a minimal size. Also, it be began a wobble just west of its center looking like it is making that turn. We'll see. Personally, if we are going to get a hurricane, better it be a minimal category 1 than a serious category 4.
Newest report from National Weather Service is in: Still moving north-northwest...now moving a little faster at 7mph. They extended the hurricane warning further...from Baffin Bay to High Island. Tropical Storm warning from High Island to Intracoastal City, LA. Winds at 65 mph sustained.
Here's the discussion from the NHC. Looks like it finally made that wobble left and it is pretty damn disorganized. The graphic shows Port O'Connor as now the most likely target with Freeport next. CLAUDETTE IS STRUGGLING WITH SHEAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM HAS HAD AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT DATA. HOWEVER...RECENT HOUSTON WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE EYEWALL IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO BECOMING EXPOSED. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS INDICATING THE INTENSITY IS STILL 55 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER ARE REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LONGER TERM MOTION OF 340/7 AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION SINCE 15Z THAT IS SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS THE START OF THE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST SUCH A TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6-18 HR. THUS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE FORECAST TRACK NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN 24-36 HR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE...IT IS SO FAR NOT DOING MUCH TO SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE SHEAR. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS LESS IMPREESIVE THAN 6 HR AGO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH WOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 82 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SUCH AS HAS OCCURRED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. AFTER LANDFALL...CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.
