HURRICANE CLAUDETTE...

I was at that one. Talk about a light show!

Hope Claudette turns in a good direction (like away from Texas). Going to Houston this weekend for a few days. This doesn't look good.

 

That's what I was trying to say...if it sounded a little different than that, then I apologize, but that's what I meant.

If it moves out quickly, though, then the storm will be too far south to be influenced by it. Same if it's delayed significantly - it'll have less of an impact on the storm.

If it stalls, though, over Texas, the Texas & Louisiana (to a lesser extent) coasts are in danger. The last forecasts I saw, though, had the storm crossing the Yucutan, turning NW, and as it nears the coast turning back to the west. That would tend to put the S Padre/Brownsville/N Mexico area at greatest risk in 4-6 days.

 

mfclark,

I saw the prediction you mentioned graphed on another web site map. That bodes well for Texas.

 

It'll hit the no-man's-land between Kingsland & Corpus.

 

Uh...still waiting for the big turn west. It turned west on Saturday afternoon/evening...but now is moving North/Northwest.

"uh...yeah...ummmm..we expect that west turn any minute now...of course we told you previously it was going in at Brownsville or northern Mexico....but that west turn should be any minute now. keep watching."

 

It looks like Houston or Beaumont right now...but I expect it to turn a bit westward.....and to reach Hurricane strength today.

We need the rain in Austin, so I hope it has an effect on us.

DD

 

They are still predicting a westerly turn so that it hits around Corpus..
but it's going so damn slow, that anything can happen.

Sitting in the warm Gulf, moving slowly...this baby is gonna hit Hurricane strength before the day is out.

 

yep...still waiting on that westerly turn...waiting....waiting...

the ironic thing is that westerly turn could prove even worse for the houston area, considering all of this system's storms are to the east of the center!

 

So here's where all the storm talk is...I take a month off and lose all sense of direction in here...

I boarded up my windows yesterday afternoon so I wouldn't have to be boarding up the windows in the rain...all the plywood is cut and Plyloxed into place. Looks like I'll be taking the boards down and keeping them handy in the garage...At least it's good to know that I'm ready if a storm heads down my way anytime soon.

Now i have some time to figure out a way to brace my fence...I would hate for that thing to get knocked down...

 

two words...homeowner's insurance.

I have been praying for a decent storm to come thru and take out my crappy fence so that I can finally use my insurance.

I havent made a claim in ages, and my fence is leaning all over the place.
Come on storm, make my day.

 

I don't think she will make it that far north. We'll definitely get rain but hurricane force winds in a storm like this one - still fairly disorganized and in a shearing envirnoment - probably won't extend much beyond 30 miles from the center. And, at this point, getting this storm up to a category 2 as you suggest is probably going to be a stretch given the proximity to the coast and environment.

Port O'Connor south to Corpus Christi look like the most likely targets.

I gotta say, though, that the NHC has been pretty damn impressive with the long-range forcasting. They predicted this type of landfall for this storm when it was still in the Carribean. They are dead on their target area even 5 or 6 days out. Pretty amazing.

 

I don't think I'll take the boards down just yet...maybe after I take nap in the middle of the day in complete darkness!!!

 

I'm gonna have to agree with Jeff. Although she is making some last minute changes, they've had her just about pegged up until now. And this from a constant five days out.

I watch these things obsessively (to the point that I generally get up at four in the morning for the latest update, and I'll time my bed time around an update too (usually the ten o'clock one....man I'm getting old).

Anyway, I've seen such a marked improvement in their ability to predict these things over the past several years. Is it perfect? No. But at this rate, it won't take long until the system is.

 

Hey, someone take a look at the Storm Plot on page 1 of this and tell me where it looks like its going land. Im not good with maps. Looks like they are saying its landing above Corpus now.

 

does everyone understand that the tracking map on page 1 of this thread is changing...it does not look the same as it did previously. they had this thing going in at brownsville or to the south into northern mexico. now they're saying north of corpus..and it continues to move north/northwest.

i still put little faith in weathermen...they've gotten admittedly better, but they all readily admit that everything they just told you could change the next time they report. the other day we were talking about 10% strike probability for Galveston. This morning when I was watching it was 18%. Right now it stands at 26%. Actually, reminds me a lot of Alicia...not in the storm's power, but in the way it has behaved.

 

All of you guys must have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

now that's freaking funny!!!