This. A GOOD role player is just as valuable as "quality young talent". Unless you're talking about a young stud who is destined to be a top 3 player on the team, a quality role player is probably more valuable to a team's overall success, both in the short term and long term. If the draft pick ends up becoming only slightly better than that role player in the long run, then you ended up giving up the short term quality in favor of very minimal long term value. Better to take $1.00 today for an asset that may only be worth $1.04 in a few years. Now, if that same asset is likely be become $1.50, then you keep it. That said, I would much rather see Morey package the pick with other assets (Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, a future pick, Lior Eliyahu's draft rights, etc.) to either move up in the draft or to get a good player. It doesn't have to be a great scorer, since the Rockets already have plenty of those. But someone who can block some shots and/or play solid defense. Possibly someone like either Jason Thompson or Spencer Hawes from the Kings. Both are young (Thompson is 23, Hawes is only 21) and would make good backups to Yao. The Kings have those two, plus Carl Landry, Omri Casspi, Donte Greene, Andres Nocioni as frontcourt players. If the Kings end up with the #3 pick (and a choice between Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins), perhaps they trade away one of those bigs for the #14 pick, a foreign prospect and cash. Either player's salary could be absorbed in the $3M trade exception generated in the McGrady trade (equal to Landry's salary).
They won a championship and his $19 million contract will be expiring at the end of this season. I'm not concerned with how it worked out for Memphis. I'm concerned with how it worked out for Houston. Rockets were supposedly in win now mode and Battier was to put the team over the top. That didn't happen, which is why I said that we all know how that ended up. Before you and other Battier lovers start crying about injuries, please remember that everybody was healthy in 2007 and the Rockets couldn't get out of the first round. The role player that was supposed to put the team over the top, the same guy that couldn't help Memphis win a playoff game in their entire history, was essentially a non-factor and was getting abused by the likes of Matt Harpring, who's no longer in the league. Still curious?
Wow. You're hanging the Rockets' playoff loss to the Jazz on a role player? A role player who didn't even play poorly in that series? Wow. Just . . . wow. So, just because Matt Harping hit a couple of shots in 7 games and committed a couple of hard fouls, he "abused" Battier? I can only imagine how badly the Rockets would have lost with Rudy "No D" Gay trying to defend the pick and roll. Sure, he's a good young player. But he would not have made the difference in that series. It was a poor matchup for the Rockets, plain and simple. The Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets were fairly evenly matched. But Utah had the matchup advantages and won out in the end. Get over your Battier hate. He was a great role player for this team who could help win games without putting up 18 ppg. Frankly, your revisionist history is unamusing and actually quite ridiculous. I'm okay with those who want to bash the Battier-8th pick trade (that's what it was, especially since the Rockets were set to take Thabo Sefalosha had Battier not become available). But at least be fair with your analysis when doing so. If you want to say that the Rockets would have been better off NOW (rather than in 2007 or 2008), fine. But Battier clearly made the Rockets a better team those years (when they were actually contending for a title with T-Mac and Yao) than Rudy Gay ever would have. Goodnight.
This part always gets me when people bring up Gay vs Battier...Gay was never coming to Houston lol. People see Gay and all the wonderful stats he puts up and assume he was the missing piece... I assume if you want to bash Morey, CD or whoever made that pick/trade the argument should be Thabo vs Battier not Gay vs Battier.
I'm only going by what we were told by the organization. It went something like this: The Rockets were in win now mode and Houston acquired Battier in order to accomplish that goal. However, he didn't put the organization over the top. We didn't even get out of the first round when everybody was healthy in 2007. He was essentially a non-factor in those playoffs just like when he played for Memphis when they didn't win one playoff game the entire time he was there. I'm not going to deal with hypotheticals like you. You can imagine and wonder all you want, but one thing is for sure and that is Battier certainly wasn't any sort of difference maker in that series and again his acquisition was described by the organization as a move to "win now." That didn't happen. Please I want YOU to explain to me how anything I've posted in this thread is "revisionist history." If Battier "clearly" made the Rockets a better team during those years, how come they kept getting bounced in the first round? Win now mode, remember? You can't use injuries as an excuse in 2007 when everybody was healthy. Either you win it all or you're just another loser in this league. I'm not big on moral victories. Apparently sensitive Battier fans like yourself are.
So, the fact that we didn't win a championship means Battier didn't clearly make the Rockets a better team? I think, 99.9% of trades fail to deliver a championship to either team. It doesn't follow that all these trades were bad trades for both sides.
The way the trade was explained to everybody by the organization was that it was a move to "win now." Those are not my words. Those are the words of the Houston Rockets. What do you think win now means? Win some games in the regular season and a few in the playoffs and get bounced in the first round? No, it means we are in a win championship mode now. That didn't happen even when everybody was healthy. The trade didn't accomplish the goal laid out by the organization itself. These are all indisputable facts. I don't understand why people are having a hard time accepting this. The only thing I can think of (and this isn't directed towards you pbthunder) is that the sensitive Battier fans are letting their emotions get the best of them. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that his has happened on clutchfans.
Our pick, Kyle Lowry and Jared Jeffries for Devin Harris and cash considerations. PG: Devin Harris | Aaron Brooks SG: Kevin Martin | Chase Budinger SF: Shane Battier | Trevor Ariza PF: Luis Scola | Jordan Hill CN: Yao Ming | Marcus Camby
Sure, I would like to have another Brooks, Gay or Landry or better yet Danny Granger, Josh Smith or Al Jefferson. What I don't agree with you isthe probability of how often we can get those guys with a 13th -14th pick. All things equal and not thinking luxury tax etc.: If somebody offers me, for example, a healthy Joel Pryzbilla, Marcin Gortat, Jamal Crawford, Danilo Gallinari, little bit younger Mike Miller or somebody else with similar talent for just the 14th pick, I would be tempted to agree to a deal. They are all role players, and won't be stars ever. They still are good value for just a late pick. The original question in the thread was about above average role player, in my view that's basically a MLE player or similar. If nobody offers better value, then we can draft. I have nothing against getting more youth, talent and potential, I just like to get maximum value out of our assets. This I can agree with. If there is a trade for a star available, one which Morey is willing to make, I'm probably all for it. If there is no such deal available, I'll want to get maximum value out of the pick, even if it means trading it for a role player. And yes, I would like for us to get all the stars but the reality of the situation is that Morey has to be at least somewhat fiscally responsible. Can he go over the luxury tax? Probably. Will he have the same leeway to spend as Lakers, Dallas, Orlando etc.? Probably not. What you deem critical doesn't really matter. What matters in this context is the framework, which Les allows Morey to manouever in. And when trading for players, you have to have assets as you said. The best way to get assets is to get value out of every transaction. If you always take lesser value back, you soon won't be having any assets to trade. Well, we might have a different view what a role player really is, but assuming we are still talking about MLE-level talent, there can be number of reasons why those deals don't happen that often: 1) Salary commitment = Some teams don't want to spend very much so they rather get a worse player with the pick than trade it for a maximum value. Financially it makes sense, but if you want to win, it mostly doesn't. 2) Trade rules = You need fillers most of the time if you want to complete a trade. If you are over the cap, you can't just trade a pick for a MLE player. 3) Trade rules, part 2: I you can't make a trade before July, it becomes much more complicated. 4) Risk-seeking = Many executives seemingly like to go for the risky transactions with higher potential, even if means getting back less than optimum value. 5) Marketing reasons = Fans might like to see young and athletic players oozing with potentail more than older, more steady, known commodities with more value on the basketball court. I don't view the Yao issue that way. At the moment, Yao could be completely done, a role player caliber, 2.-3.option, franchise player or top-5 player. Some outcomes are more likely than others, but until we know better, I'm not changing my philosophy. We aren't building just around Yao (or Tracy) any more. I'm thinking long term. And I don't necessarily see how taking huge risks gets us in any better position. There have been a number of organisations who also go for potential only to find themselves in the lottery every year. Also, I would think that blowing the team up and tanking a few years is not a realistic option either. In addition to winning, Les wants to make profit and sucking badly probably doesn't maximize it. Finally, I'm not against being predatory either. For example, Morey IMO completely raped the Knicks at the deadline, and what is the principle? New York thinks like you now. There hasn't been many riskier strategies around than what they are doing now. And Morey is betting against that. There are more than one way of building a contender, and Morey seems to be quite innovative in finding the ways.
Yes, I'll agree. I think it like this (don't get caught on the percentages as they are imaginary/unknown): Ceteris paribus (no injuries etc.) We got Shane Battier: 1) 80% probability: He stays the same, which is a great role player on a contender 2) 10% probability: He actually improves and starts being more involved on offense 3) 10% probability: He regresses quickly to a bech player FOR Stromile Swift: 1) 80% probability: He continues to have no iq, never living to his contract but still has some use 2) 10% probability: He becomes Brian Cook before Brian Cook became Brian Cook 3) 10% probability: He finds the switch and becomes a starter or better and We gave the Grizzlies 5 (or less/more, however you want) lottery tickets: 1) 5% chance of winning: Gay (or anybody else they drafted) turns out to be the franchise saviour. 2) 15% chance of winning: Gay becomes a solid, even star-quality starter. 3) 40% chance of winning: Gay loses his hunger and is content of being a role player 4) 20% chance of winning: Gay appears to be a head case, unmotivated, or his skills don't translate enough to nba level etc., and he mostly warms the bench, but still has some uses 5) 20% chance of winning: Gay quits the team, announces microfracture surgery and is out o the league. Again, the percentages/outcomes are imaginary but the concept isn't. Just because the bolded outcomes became true, it doesn't mean that the other possible outcomes are not relevant when assessing the trade. In the short term, solely looking at the results often leads to wrong conclusion. Fooled by randomness, they say.
It's most likely to happen. After they sign scola, lowery, and Hayes the rox will be over the tax. If you draft a rookie and he doesn't play, it will be bad cuz the rox will pay taxes on him for nothing. So in reallity they will trade the pick, cuz they do not want to pay double the price for a rookie to just sit there. The best thing is to package a deal like a sign and trade with JJ, Hayes, Shane, or even scola for an all star like bosh, Amare, or David lee
Hey, that's what I said earlier, but in a slightly different way. The difference is that I really think Morey will do that (based on what? simply a hunch), whereas it something you would like to see Morey do. I'm playing a hunch and you're being more realistic by not including the prediction. Very nice post about the history of picking around the 14th spot, by the way.
Maybe giving up the 14th pick and next years New York 1st round swap or the rockets 1st round pick in 2012 because they own New Yorks 1st that year. Alot is going to to depend on how they value the overall talent in this upcoming draft compared to the potential draft talent in the next few years. Its looking like a very rich draft especially for big men this year. The rockets window is now, so it would surprise me if they added two more 1st round rookies this season, but at the same time the rockets have one of the smallest frontlines without Yao. As the rockets have seen this season, size matters. How much will it cost the rockets to sign or trade for some quality size compared to adding through the draft?
This. Kwame, I'm not trying to tell you that you're not entitled to your opinion about whether the Rockets would have been better off in the long haul without Shane Battier. But your assertion that he was a failure in Houston because the Rockets did not go deep into the playoffs is just ridiculous. If Tracy and Yao could have carried the team a little more, or if the OTHER role players were a little better (the Rockets sure could have used a Luis Scola on that 2006-07 team), then the Rockets advance. You can't simply point to one role player and claim that he was a failure. The Rockets failed, plain and simple. But it wasn't Battier's FAULT. It just happened. Also, you ARE employing revisionist history, saying that Shane got "abused" by Matt Harpring. That never happened. Did he get abused on one play? Probably. But certainly not during the course of the series. Nor did anyone Battier guarded regularly abuse him or the Rockets. That was part of the problem: the Jazz were the only good team in the playoffs WITHOUT a star wing player for Battier to guard. This effectively neutralized his true effectiveness for the team. That said, Shane still played well and was NOT abused. And one more thing on the whole "Rudy Gay" thing. Does this mean that in any year in which the Rockets trade draft picks, we should assume that the Rockets inevitably would have taken the guy who ends up being the best player after a couple of years? THAT, my friend, is revisionist history.
I believe Morey will try to trade up in the draft just like what he did last year. I have a hard time believing any team would give up a top-3 pick for a 14th pick and a role player though.
Who said he'll be able to trade up that high? Sometimes just a couple a spots can put a guy you have as a target within reach. Of course, I would love a top three pick, but whatever Morey does, you can count on there being a good reason behind it. (it was a real reach for me to say that! ;-)- )
Obviously I would like Wall or Cousins, but I am thinking we target either Udoh or Monroe with my slight preference going to Monroe. I think you try to package 14 this year with a 2012 first rounder since we have two. I would say our lottery pick plus Jordan Hill. But I would like to keep Hill, I think he could play backup 5 a bit. Yao, Scola, Monroe, Hill, Hayes is a good 5 man mix there for the front court.
Although recently I have started salivating over the fantasy of getting Josh Smith. Great defender, shot blocker, he could play SF for us (although I think he plays PF for Atlanta most of the time) He would be a great compliment to the 4 other starters next year (Yao, Scola, Martin, Brooks) Our lotto pick this year+Jeffries+Ariza + Andersen (filler and irony) +2012 first rounder for Smith. Its a heavy price, but I think he would fit well and he had a great year. He is getting better all the time. Yao/Hill/Hayes Scola/Hill/Smith sometimes or Hayes sometimes Smith/Battier Martin/Budinger Brooks/Lowry.
