This. Value is the key. So what if we have enough "role players" as it is. Keep stockpiling assets, somewhere somehow in the future there will be a situation where we can cash in our cheap talent to acquire more "star power".
No way they let him go next season. They will probably be looking to market him or Tabeet next year when both of their stock's improve but they will still want the world for Gasol. I still think the best bargain has to be in the draft this year.
No doubt. We could really use a young back-up 7 footer from the draft. Enough with the banged up vets and overpaid role players. Unless, of course, he uses that pick in a package for Bosh. Not Amare.
OP: How would you feel about Morey trading our pick? It's like picking your nose. It depends on the results, doesn't it?
What do you think it would take to make something like the Miami or Minnesota deals work? Just in your opinion.
Well, what's the alternative? Try to find the needle in the haystack and in the process you actually get less value out of the picks while increasing the variance? Your bitterness towards Battier clouds your ability to see what the returns really are in the range we have picked in / we'll be picking in. There isn't a magic crystal ball that allows us to see who'll become a star.
For some perspective, the following is a list of some notable players drafted in the #12-#18 range since 2003. With the Rockets likely picking at #14, and given Daryl Morey's ability thus far to find great value in his picks (even in the picks he wanted but failed to get, like Brandon Roy at #6 and Rudy Fernandez at #24), the Rockets could possibly find a player the caliber of the following names: David West (#18, 2003) Al Jefferson (#15, 2004) Josh Smith (#17, 2004) J.R. Smith (#18, 2004) Danny Granger (#17, 2005) Ronnie Brewer (#14, 2006) Thaddeus Young (#12, 2007) Rodney Stuckey (#15, 2007) Anthony Randolph (#14, 2008) Maureese Speights (#16, 2008) While those names are rather impressive, there is no guarantee that Morey can hit a home run with his first pick inside the top 25. It may be more likely that instead he gets a "solid single" with a player the caliber of the following: Nick Collison (#12, 2003) Luke Ridnour (#14, 2003) Antoine Wright (#15, 2005) Thabo Sefalosha (#13, 2006) Rodney Carney (#16, 2006) Al Thornton (#14, 2007) Nick Young (#16, 2007) Marco Belinelli (#18, 2007) Jason Thompson (#12, 2008) Brandon Rush (#13, 2008) Robin Lopez (#15, 2008) Roy Hibbert (#17, 2008) Javale McGee (#18, 2008) Jrue Holiday (#17, 2009) Ty Lawson (#18, 2009) Although I included Holiday and Lawson in the "solid single" group, they could quite possibly elevate themselves to the first group if they continue to develop. In that vain, with respect to the other 2009 draftees in this range, it may just be too early to tell on them: Gerald Henderson (#12, 2009) Tyler Hansbrough (#13, 2009) Earl Clark (#14, 2009) Austin Daye (#15, 2009) James Johnson (#16, 2009) That said, here are the other players drafted in this range since 2003. For as good as Morey's (limited) track record in the draft has been thus far, it is still entirely possible that the Rockets end up with a guy like the following. Caveat emptor: Marcus Banks (#13, 2003) Reece Gaines (#15, 2003) (former Rocket) Troy Bell (#16, 2003) Zarko Cabarkapa (#17, 2003) Robert Swift (#12, 2004) Sebastian Telfair (#13, 2004) Kris Humphries (#14, 2004) Kirk Snyder (#16, 2004) (former Rocket) Yaroslav Korolev (#12, 2005) Sean May (#13, 2005) Rashad McCants (#14, 2005) (was sort of a Rocket for a bit) Joey Graham (#16, 2005) Gerald Green (#18, 2005) (former Rocket) Hilton Armstrong (#12, 2006) (former Rocket) Cedric Simmons (#15, 2006) Shawne Williams (#17, 2006) Oleksiy Pecherov (#18, 2006) Julian Wright (#13, 2007) Sean Williams (#17, 2007) As you can see, there are a number of players who played for the Rockets at one point or another. Guess what? They were all either "throw-ins" in trades or training camp fodder. Not too good for late lotto/mid-first round picks. Let's just hope that Morey takes someone the caliber of those in the first group, and let's expect that he at least gets someone the caliber of those in the second group. Sorry for the long post. Just wanted to put some names and faces with the numbers as far as the caliber of guys taken in the range where the Rockets are selecting.
Roy Hibbert is going to be a top 5 center one day. He's got the whole package. Larry Bird does have an eye for talent.
The only way they deal him is if they overpay for Gay this summer and underproduce before the trade deadline. Morey does like to pick on the owners that spend frivolously and have buyers remorse later. But then again, they did waste millions of dollars on the Iverson experiment so who knows.
Thanks for taking the time to make that list. So, out of the 49 players listed there we'll arguably have: Stars: 3 (Granger, Smith, Jefferson) "Pseudo-stars": 2 (West, Stuckey) After that, there are some younger guys who still have a slight chance to be stars like Randolph (doesn't seem very likely), Young(seems to have hit a ceiling), Hibbert (Don't personally see it but apparently some do), Holiday (potential is there), Speights (great offensively, defense is suspect), Thompson? Lawson? Probably most of these dudes never make the jump and end up as role players as well. The rest are role players or complete garbage. Even out of the second group you listed, "the solid singles", I would argue that Wright, Carney, Belinell and Collison aren't very good and don't really belong to that group. So I don't really agree with the notion that you never trade these picks (late lottery-mid first round) for a role player.
Would you rather the Rockets draft a player like Brooks, Landry, Gay, etc... (young, dynamic, athletic, cheap talent) or would you prefer the Rockets acquire role players like Battier that are readily available through free agency and other minor transactions? I have no problem in trading the lottery pick, but it better not be for another role player. The Boston Celtics got Ray Allen for their lottery pick. The window to win with Yao is small (only a couple of years), thus I'm all for packaging the lottery pick along with some expiring contracts (Jeffries and/or Battier) and a young asset in a sign and trade or a just a straight up trade for something more than a role player, which is what this team needs (along with health) to truly make a title run
If it only were so simple. You can't just assume that whoever we pick is going to turn out to be a good player in this league. Out of the 49 players BimaThug listed, there are 0-1 franchise players, a few other stars, some young prospects who most likely end up being good role players anyway, and like 20 scrubs who have no place on a winning team. The average return of these picks isn't what you make it out to be. Most teams most likely would be very content with acquiring a solid role player(like 4th-7th best player on a good team) with later lottery picks. And like I said, nobody has a crystal ball. (Your beloved Shane Battier, was afterall drafted with the 6th pick) Your listing of Gay, Brooks and Landry(who is closer to role player than anything else) doesn't really prove a thing. For every Roy and Gay in that draft there were double the amount of duds: Bargnani (1st), Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams etc. Nba scouts, GM's and other professional decision makers prove year in and year out, that it's pretty hard if not borderline impossible to consistently draft well or predict the future. Sure, in extreme cases like Lebron, Duncan etc. it can be relatively easy but we are not talking about top picks now. In addition of role players being easily available, there will also be teams who want to get rid of aging and declining stars like Allen who are owned a ton of money. Allthough, Morey allegedly wasn't too thrilled about acquiring younger Iguodala/Dalembert so I don't know how he likes those kind of trades. Les doesn't give him an blank check like some owners, so this is something we have to take into account as well. Also, Celtics gave up the 5th pick, so our situation is not really comparable any way. Another example is Jason Richardson. It's not likely that the Warriors would have traded him for a pick if he was actually going to earn his near-max contract. edit. Disclaimer: It is of course well within the realms of possibility that Daryl Morey actually is a god and can always make the right decision. That being said, RudyT and Carroll Dawson had some hits too in their early days before running this organization back to stone age with their moves.
I wasn't assuming anything. I was posing a question. Okay, so it seems you would rather make a conservative move for a mediocre role player than take your chances in the lottery. Fair enough, but we all know how that ended up last time when the Rockets were in "win now" mode. If the Rockets want to compete for a title they are either going to have to make this type of move for a star that's owed a lot of money or trade the lottery pick along with expiring contracts plus some young assets for a proven star that will be getting max money like a Chris Bosh. Either way if they want to challenge for the championship they will have to go over the luxury tax. I have no problem with either scenario. What you fail to see is that historically it is rare for lottery picks to be traded for role players, because they are readily available via free agency and minor transactions. You also either are unwilling or unable to see that the window to try and compete for a title with Yao is getting smaller. All you've proposed in this thread is that the organization 'keep stockpiling assets, [so that] somewhere somehow in the future there will be a situation where we can cash in our cheap talent to acquire more "star power."' The organization already has enough assets. There is no need to trade a lottery pick for another role player. The lottery pick itself is an asset. There is no need to wait for a future scenario to present itself "somewhere somehow." The future is now. The Rockets either need to trade the lottery pick in a package deal for a proven star or take their chances in the draft lottery. You seem to want the Rockets to trade the lottery pick for a role player and just keep waiting. The Rockets need to be aggressive and "predatory" like Les said that they would be, not passive in hoping for the perfect scenario to magically present itself.
Yes they got Ray Allen, but the Thunder's pick was top 10 in a deep draft. We're talking about the 14th, not exactly a gold mine for franchise players. More importantly how did Ray Allen work out for the Celts? Last I here they're trying to ship his ass out.
As one of the biggest Battier for Gay haters in the board, I'm curious how exactly did that work out? Did Memphis suddenly win so many games with Gay on the roster? As far as I can see, we got the better end of the deal, the money we saved from trading Slowmile swift gaves us the room to sign Scola/Mandry, and Battier won a decent amount of games for us. All Rudy Gay did was show potential and lose games for Memphis due to his bad D. Next season might mark his 2nd productive season, except this time the team will have to pay him major money.
