The Rockets have a decision to make about Budinger: a 2012/13 team option at $885,120 for the 4th and final season of his rookie contract. So, I am wondering what everyone thinks of (a) his performance in 2011/12, (b) his salary value if he were a free agent, (c) whether the Rockets should keep him, trade him or let him go, and (d) what to do about the team option. Notable items: 1. Having the team option declined makes Budinger a RESTRICTED free agent (Houston having rights to match outside offer) right now. Having it picked up means he will be locked up at a cheap price for a year then become an UNRESTRICTED free agent. 2. Kind of a funny thing about his contract: Even if the Rockets pick up his option (which generally needs to be done before July 1, 2012), Budinger's salary is still fully non-guaranteed until August 1, 2012. So, they can pick up the option now, then waive him without paying him sometime in July in case they need $885,120 in extra cap room to sign somebody. Waiving him after the option is picked up, however, makes Budinger an unrestricted FA with Rockets not having matching rights.
Well... first of all I'd explore moving Bud on draft night. You get back some value, create minutes for Morris and let another team deal with Bud's option. If there's no deal out there to be made, I'd probably pick up his team option and see what's out there for Bud at next year's deadline. The risk some team overvalues/overbids for Bud ($4M+/year) is too high IMO. It's a good question though. There's certainly an argument to be made either way.
I'd try to lock him up on a long-term contract at about 2 to 2.5 mio. If that is not possible, pick up the option.
Really I think this boils down to whether or not you believe he can improve significantly, since I don't think his value is particularly high right now. Dunk contest might have teams looking for athletic Brian Scalabrine but I doubt we'll have to match some ridiculous offer. His stats have basically remained the same (though he did shoot 40% from 3 this year) throughout his career; I was highest on him after his rookie campaign based on potential but he's mostly plateaued while remaining frustratingly inconsistent. If there's reason to believe he'll make a big leap, I'd decline the option and play the RFA game. If not, pick up the cheap team option, hopes he improves a bit and try to move him at the deadline for whatever (ala Jordan Hill). Without a significant improvement, I'd rather give his minutes to Morris for development. Current Chase is made redundant by Parsons, Morris would bring something else (ability to create his own shot) provided he can get consistent minutes. I know Morris is "unproven," but I would like to think we didn't waste a lottery pick on a cheerleader.
My thoughts: 1. Budinger had an up-and-down year in 2011/12. Falling out of the rotation at one point but ended the season as a solid rotation player and having shot his career high from the 3 point line. His "down" periods this season had to do with (a) new coaching staff with different emphasis, (b) no training camp, and (c) crowded roster (with Parsons being added and the team not wanting to play a 10/11 man rotation). 2. A salary of <$2 million in free agency (a popular choice in the poll) is, in my opinion, unrealistically low for Budinger. Other similarly situated rotation wing/shooters have earned $3 to $4 million in free agency (CJ Miles at $3.7 mil, Roger Mason at $3.6 mil, Morrow at $4 mil, Bellinelli at the $3.3 mil qualifying offer, etc.). SAC even bid $3 mil a year for the amnestied Travis Outlaw. Some have gotten even more (Kapono, Luke Walton, Matt Carroll), but hopefully teams have learned from these mistakes. $3 to $4 million would be a more realistic range, particularly in a year in which multiple teams have significant cap room.
I agree with your analysis, but don't you think that some team just might be inclined to bid that exta $0.5-1M, just so the Rockets wouldn't match? Either way it's a risk. Would you be willing to take it? Is it worth it?
They might, especially if the contract is only 1 year guaranteed. When there are teams with cap space and need to sign somebody to satisfy the minimum team contract, a one year offer make sense. If they strike out on their main targets, they might as well pay somebody a big one-year guaranteed contract (maybe with 2nd year team option) like teams did with Dalembert, Landry and Kwame. To answer your question: I wouldn't let Budinger become an RFA just to get the "RFA discount", whatever it might be. I would, however, do what is described below. This contract? http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/22025/inside-collisons-unique-contract-extension Personally, I think something like it is precisely what needs to be done with Budinger. Like OKC did with Collison, the Rockets should use their cap space this summer to give Budinger a large bonus to sign him to a 3-year extension (the longest allowed under the current CBA) at a cheap price. In fact, giving Budinger that bonus is probably one of the best things they can do with their cap space. Here's how the math would work in one scenario. In order to pay Budinger $3.2 million/year for 3 years, the Rockets will give him a large bonus to up his salary to $7.55 million for 2012/13, then pay him only the league minimum for the next 3 seasons. Their salary math kind of look like this: Spoiler <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #104E8B; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th> </th><th> </th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> </td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> Waived </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td> </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Projected </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Projected </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td> </td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>SUM</td><td>Average</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td> Renegotiated </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $7,549,164 </td><td> $915,852 </td><td> $992,680 </td><td> $1,027,424 </td><td> $9,600,000 </td><td> $3,200,000 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td> </td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td> </td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $762,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick </td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>Add Lee/Dragic</td><td> $59,336,862 </td><td> $56,528,716 </td><td> $29,271,545 </td><td> $18,263,227 </td><td> $9,010,110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td> </td><td>15</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td> </td><td> $(1,296,862)</td><td> $1,511,284 </td><td> $28,768,455 </td><td> $39,776,773 </td><td> $49,029,890 </td><td> </td><td></td></tr></table> They won't have cap room after this, but still has the ability to create more by (a) letting Lee or Dragic go (which isn't entirely their choice, given bidding in free agency, (b) trade or amnesty Scola or Martin (and Lowry, though he is owed much less). Budinger at this contract would be a very good asset since (a) you can use at the trade deadline to eat a lot of salary, and (b) the team he's traded to will have a good shooter locked up the league minimum. Teams at nor near the tax line (Lakers for one) would really be able to use this contract. Bonus features for this contract: Guys earning the minimum can be traded without worrying about balancing salaries. [Edit: I was wrong about reimbursement] Not sure what the free agency landscape is, but it is highly unusual to actually find a bargain there-- only "value" you typically get are (a) max players, (b) your own restricted FA when the restriction scares off competing bidders, (c) guys who elected to take less money than they are offered (because they like a team/city/coach, think it is better for their development, etc.). So, there is a good chance whoever they spend the $ on instead of Budinger would be a worse "value" contract than Budinger would be.
To me, its a no-brainer to pick up his option, then gamble at loosing him for nothing next summer. -First of all, you have the Kmart/Lee situation. There is a good chance you might be moving on from one of those guys. Bud is really more of a shooting wing anyways, and is probably better suited guarding shooting guards anyways on the defensive end. If Martin is traded or the Rockets let go of Lee in free agency, you have an affordable backup already on the roster to give you minutes off the bench. -Summer of 2013/14 teams will have less and less to spend in free agency outside of the two mid level exceptions. At this point we all know who Bud is, and what he's going to be going forward. If the Rockets cant resign him because a team is offering too much, then he's probably not worth resigning at a higher amount anyways. You can find guys that replace what he does fairly easily in the NBA. -Trade chip- to make a move either this summer or during the trade deadline in 2013, Budinger will be a nice filler to any deal. Plus, he's versatile enough to plug him into multiple spots on the floor if you did need him to fill in on a team that gets depleated in a major trade. That being said... take advantage of Bud on the cheap this year by picking up his option, and deal with next summer, next summer. If you gotta let Bud walk, let him walk and say thank you for your services.
You pick up his option and don't think twice. At near league minimum, he's a terrific bargain. Almost 10-4 off the bench is nothing to sniff at when you're paying less than a million. He'll have trade value, especially if a contender has an injury at the swing position. If we let him walk after 2013, that's fine. Bud is a very nice guy to come off the bench, but ultimately, Bud is not a difference maker. There's no sense spending $4M on a top 40 swingman with marginal D when you can scoop up a new one in nearly every draft. Right now, the only thing that matters is getting a top 15 player. Everything else is window dressing.
Carl, you're smarter than this. The Rockets cannot possibly benefit more from any move besides picking up his option. The only scenario where this may not be the best move, is if the Rockets want to keep capspace for the 2013 offseason. But even then Morey probably is better served trying to replace CBud with some future 2nd rounder rather than keeping him for $2-3mil.
The last few games of the season Budinger suddenly became more of a threat off the dribble. He was actually making moves to the hoop, and not just shooting or giving a pump fake to take a few dribbles to shoot. It's weird to me that he was able to make this change all of a sudden. He's had his moments in the past, but I dont think he's ever looked to drive this consistently before. I don't see an improvement in his handles, so it leads me to believe it was mental. Why wasn't he thinking like this before? He's had playing time and opportunity. I can't imagine two different coaching staffs didn't make it a priority to tell him to do it. Was Budinger holding himself back, and is now preparing for a contract year? That being said, i'd hold on to him this summer if possible, i think he's going to "break out" next year. Nothing special, but he should increase his trade value.
.... don't like him bricking that much..... He is not motivated to play well half of a season so I don't know. Willing to give him a final chance.
IMO Budinger holds some trade value in the league. But I don't think he is a starter. Good bench player type. I think Bud could prove most valuable in looking to move up a bit on draft night. How far (or who?) would Lowry+Budinger+14+16 get us?
I'd keep him as a 6th man, a 3PT spark or high energy guy right off the bench who can knock down shots
