How to incorporate Carmelo Anthony into your offense(stats inside)

Coach E · Jul 7, 2018

Love it OP!

I’m with you, people are crazy negative on Melo.

He’s a 20ppg career guy, if he comes for vet min that’s gotta be the best production per dollar contract in the NBA

chievous minniefield · Jul 7, 2018

In our last game against OKC this year, I got to sit courtside. In addition to getting in Russell's head hardcore, I also said the following to Carmelo:

"Melo, I know you wish you'd ended up in Houston last year."

It was during a free throw or something, and he had his hands on his knees back on the defensive half of the court, near the Rockets bench.

I have no doubt whatsoever that he heard me, and I swear he nodded when I said it.

H-Town Melo · Jul 7, 2018

H-Town Melo said: ↑

How to incorporate Carmelo Anthony into your offense.

I tracked the data to show where he was most impactful last season in a system that didn't utilize him properly and tried to tailor it to the D'Antoni and Morey's philosophies of where they like to see offense come from.

Catch and Shoot

54.3 EFG%

37.3 3P%

46.3 FG%

6 of 14 FGA were catch and shoot

2 of 6 makes overall were catch and shoot

Note: Catch and Shoot should be a staple of his offensive output. 8-10 catch and shoot shots a game is my target if possible.

Timing and Rhythm

60.3 EFG% w/ 22-24secs on shot clock

57.5% from 2, 42.4% from 3, 50.7% ovr

58.6 EFG% w/ 18-22secs on shot clock

56.3% from 2, 39.7% from 3, 44.3% ovr

48.9 EFG% w/15-18secs on shot clock

43.8% from 2, 35.2% from 3, 38.8 ovr

Note: Early and often he should look to put shots up, he’s much more effective early in the shot clock. His highest frequency was 7-15 seconds which also carried his 2nd lowest 3 3P% and 3rd lowest 2P%. I’d avoid him taking the ball out and instead have him set up down the court and come off a quick pin down for an easy look. If not he can swing it to the weak side and preserve his legs for defense.

Dribble Pull Ups

0, 54.6 EFG%, 37.5% 3, 50.6% 2

1, 47.9 EFG%, 33.3% 3, 47.6% 2

2, 45.5 EFG%, 28.6% 3, 45.7% 2

3-6, 47.8 EFG%, 30.3% 3, 48.4% 2

7+, 42.2% EFG%, 23.5% 3, 43.8% 2

Note: Melo should never take a pull up 3 pointer unless its off the catch with 1 dribble stepping into the shot. Every dribble should lead to him moving closer to the basket and if decides to not attack the rim then 10-14 feet is ideal.

Areas to attack

Inside 5ft, 54.1 FG%

10-14ft, 45 FG%

20-24ft 35.1 3P%

25-29ft 35.8 3P%

Areas to avoid

5-9ft 33.9 FG%

15-19ft 42 FG%

Note: Take the 3 ball if you catch in rhythm, use your dribble as a weapon to either set feet or get into the 10-14 area to use touch or to the rim and finish through contact.

Avoid longer 2s and running lay ups. 3s, Short mid range, strong lay ups and dunks only

Shot Distance targets

Less than 8ft 51.4 FG%

24ft+ 35.6%

Spots

Restricted Area 56.4 FG%

Inside the paint 45.2 FG%

Right Corner 3 40 3P%

Above the break 3 35.8 3P%

Note: Find ways to get into areas of strength. Again shoot the 3 or get into the painted area or rim either far enough to avoid the big and shoot over them or get by them and finish.

Assisted/Unassisted

148 3s were assisted, 21 were unassisted

Note: 3s should come off the pass and not through pull ups. Pull up 3s will kill your efficiency. Catch and shoot, catch 1 dribble shoot or catch 2-3 dribbles into sweet spots for shots.

Conclusion

Melo has areas where he can still be impactful on the court as outlined. The question is in the Rockets offense playing off of Chris Paul and James Harden will he have those looks created and will he able to establish a steady rhythm within an offense where guys are allowed to shoot at will.

Keys for Melo

Early in the shot clock

Limited dribbles unless getting into the lane

Not settling for the 15-19ft area

Assisted 3s from the right side of the court

3 Pointer, Paint, Rim only.

Quick but patient decisions

Only isolate when match up calls for it and if you isolate keep in my mind areas of strength as outlined here

My projections if Melo follows these guidelines.

7/14 FG, 50%

3/8 3P, 37.5%

3/3.5 FT, 85%

20ppg, 7rpg, 2apg

Couple that scoring output with passable team defense and ball moving when the shot isn't there and you have a way more impactful player than Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook utilized.
Click to expand...

For those who had trouble reading it because it was "too dark"

H-Town Melo · Jul 7, 2018

Daddy Long Legs said: ↑

How’s your baby bro!
Click to expand...

He's good man, 9 months old getting into everything he can find his hands on.

H-Town Melo · Jul 7, 2018

justtxyank said: ↑

I'm not sure how much you watched of OKC, but this isn't really the case. The coach had to sit him down in December to talk him into changing his offense because he was doing too much iso and not allowing the other guys to create offense. This is when his "unhappiness" with OKC started. Through December he was getting a lot of shots, heavy iso and taking too many mid range jumpers. He was terribly inefficient and the team's offense was stagnant. They wanted him to play off ball more which he said he would accept, the offense got a little better. After the season he said he doesn't like that role. He wants to be a creator for the offense, not a finisher.
Click to expand...

In OKC he'd go huge stretches without a touch let alone a shot. Yes he wants to create but there's ways to incorporate it.

If he's quick then he can still create his own shot by attacking close outs and again just getting to his sweet spots and areas of strength.

The Thunder never had a true plan for him and when Billy asked for him to take a step back he did and Billy acknowledged that so there was no resistance but in that same breathe asking a rhythm player or a volume player to simply cut their strengths and then expect great results was asinine to say the least.

fchowd0311 · Jul 7, 2018

rammo said: ↑

He did a lot of standing around doing nothing at OKC. Occasionally PG or Westbrook would toss him the ball after 2-3 failed iso moves, and he’d have to jack it up, often contested or out of rhythm.

Won’t have to worry about that playing alongside Harden or CP. it would literally be an all you can eat buffet of open jumpers.
Click to expand...

This team broke records for jacking up contested threes.

KingCheetah · Jul 7, 2018

H-Town Melo said: ↑

In OKC he'd go huge stretches without a touch let alone a shot.
Click to expand...

Fortunately that won't happen with our playmakers -- with Westbrook running the show everyone's touches drop.

ApacheWarrior · Jul 7, 2018

Hate to get ahead of ourselves @H-Town Melo
But I like your effort and I like your numbers.
I posted some of Melo’s shot charts earlier (I think yesterday) & they coincide with much of your numbers.

I agree Billy Donavan has no rhyme nor reason to his offense. Sit down Melo and you still just have Westbrook
going 1 on 5. Everyone just watching Westbrook. In the playoffs I had this discussion with Holic.
Holic was right, I watched the playoff games and OKC didn’t run Melo in the post at all. When they did
it wasn't vs a forced mismatch. Melo is a force against players 6’6” and smaller. You have to send help
when Melo is posting up.

I saw Melo abuse GG in the post & even overwhelm Tucker in the post....when Melo had is mind right.
Which means I think he was dogging it during the season and playoffs. Vs us he dressed to impress that
final game.

per basketball-reference.com
Melo: ORtg..............DRtg
16/17: 108...............113
17/18: 104...............109* (could Melo continue to maintain around 108)

Harden: ...................DRtg
15/16: ......................108
16/17: ......................107
17/18: ......................105

USG%:
Harden:
14/15: 31.3 USG%
15/16: 32.5 USG%
16/17: 34.2 USG%
17/18: 36.1 USG% (I was expecting Harden USG% to drop to around 30% but it went up this past season)

CP3:
15/16: 27.1 USG% (Clippers)
16/17: 24.4 USG% (Clippers)
17/18: 24.5 USG% (Rockets......about equal to what I expected CP3 to put up)

EGo:
15/16: 20.3 USG% (Pels)
16/17: 22.1 USG% (Rockets)
17/18: 24.7 USG% (Rockets w/addition of CP3)

Melo: greatest USG% was 35.6 in year 2012-13. Went from:
16/17: 29.1 USG% (Knicks w/Porzingis)
to
17/18: 23.2 USG% (Thunder w/Westbrook)

I like your numbers/projections,
Melo (Rockets w/Harden/CP3/EGo healthy for 65 games.....Melo as well): I will go with:
18.2 pts/ 2.6 (3PM)/ 6.9 (3PA)/ 37.1% (3P%)/ 4.5 (FTM)/ 5.8 (FTA)/ 77.6% (FT%)/ approx 25% (USG%)/ less rebs than you have.....around 6.2 rebs.
2.6 (3’s) = 7.8 pts
4.5 (FT’s) = 4.5 pts
_____________________
.................. = 12.3 pts a game......so about 5.9 pts a game off 2’s to equal about 18.2 pts a game.

Best assist numbers were 3 yrs ago with 4.2. I will give Melo the bump of 4.8 Asts with probably a bump up in TO’s as well.

It can work and I think it will work for the most part. Harden and EGo will just need to ease up on their USG some....
and elsewhere. As it is, the Rockets push points at the rim, and 3’s, plus any FT’s will be appreciated.
Limited Mid-Range to those qualified. Coaches will inform Melo where they don’t mind Melo taking those Mid-Range
shots. Probably no 15 ft to just shy of the 3-pt line unless last second catch n shoot....this is the Houston mantra.

Thanks for the intel.

saleem · Jul 8, 2018

Trader_Jorge said: ↑

[Premium Post]
To the OP, very nice post. You worked hard and delivered some interesting insight, supported by facts. Keep up the good work.

GOOD DAY
Click to expand...

His hard work is very much appreciated by me as well. I'm not sold on Melo to the Rockets though. Lack of defense and discipline will cause great problems for Harden in particular. James thrived with Chris Paul. A PJ Tucker type of player may be of greater benefit for the Rockets, with the MLE.

hou$tonScrew$tonTX · Jul 8, 2018

H-Town Melo said: ↑

How to incorporate Carmelo Anthony into your offense.

I tracked the data to show where he was most impactful last season in a system that didn't utilize him properly and tried to tailor it to the D'Antoni and Morey's philosophies of where they like to see offense come from.

Catch and Shoot

54.3 EFG%

37.3 3P%

46.3 FG%

6 of 14 FGA were catch and shoot

2 of 6 makes overall were catch and shoot

Note: Catch and Shoot should be a staple of his offensive output. 8-10 catch and shoot shots a game is my target if possible.

Timing and Rhythm

60.3 EFG% w/ 22-24secs on shot clock

57.5% from 2, 42.4% from 3, 50.7% ovr

58.6 EFG% w/ 18-22secs on shot clock

56.3% from 2, 39.7% from 3, 44.3% ovr

48.9 EFG% w/15-18secs on shot clock

43.8% from 2, 35.2% from 3, 38.8 ovr

Note: Early and often he should look to put shots up, he’s much more effective early in the shot clock. His highest frequency was 7-15 seconds which also carried his 2nd lowest 3 3P% and 3rd lowest 2P%. I’d avoid him taking the ball out and instead have him set up down the court and come off a quick pin down for an easy look. If not he can swing it to the weak side and preserve his legs for defense.

Dribble Pull Ups

0, 54.6 EFG%, 37.5% 3, 50.6% 2

1, 47.9 EFG%, 33.3% 3, 47.6% 2

2, 45.5 EFG%, 28.6% 3, 45.7% 2

3-6, 47.8 EFG%, 30.3% 3, 48.4% 2

7+, 42.2% EFG%, 23.5% 3, 43.8% 2

Note: Melo should never take a pull up 3 pointer unless its off the catch with 1 dribble stepping into the shot. Every dribble should lead to him moving closer to the basket and if decides to not attack the rim then 10-14 feet is ideal.

Areas to attack

Inside 5ft, 54.1 FG%

10-14ft, 45 FG%

20-24ft 35.1 3P%

25-29ft 35.8 3P%

Areas to avoid

5-9ft 33.9 FG%

15-19ft 42 FG%

Note: Take the 3 ball if you catch in rhythm, use your dribble as a weapon to either set feet or get into the 10-14 area to use touch or to the rim and finish through contact.

Avoid longer 2s and running lay ups. 3s, Short mid range, strong lay ups and dunks only

Shot Distance targets

Less than 8ft 51.4 FG%

24ft+ 35.6%

Spots

Restricted Area 56.4 FG%

Inside the paint 45.2 FG%

Right Corner 3 40 3P%

Above the break 3 35.8 3P%

Note: Find ways to get into areas of strength. Again shoot the 3 or get into the painted area or rim either far enough to avoid the big and shoot over them or get by them and finish.

Assisted/Unassisted

148 3s were assisted, 21 were unassisted

Note: 3s should come off the pass and not through pull ups. Pull up 3s will kill your efficiency. Catch and shoot, catch 1 dribble shoot or catch 2-3 dribbles into sweet spots for shots.

Conclusion

Melo has areas where he can still be impactful on the court as outlined. The question is in the Rockets offense playing off of Chris Paul and James Harden will he have those looks created and will he able to establish a steady rhythm within an offense where guys are allowed to shoot at will.

Keys for Melo

Early in the shot clock

Limited dribbles unless getting into the lane

Not settling for the 15-19ft area

Assisted 3s from the right side of the court

3 Pointer, Paint, Rim only.

Quick but patient decisions

Only isolate when match up calls for it and if you isolate keep in my mind areas of strength as outlined here

My projections if Melo follows these guidelines.

7/14 FG, 50%

3/8 3P, 37.5%

3/3.5 FT, 85%

20ppg, 7rpg, 2apg

Couple that scoring output with passable team defense and ball moving when the shot isn't there and you have a way more impactful player than Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook utilized.
Click to expand...

Fantastic analysis man!

Deckard · Jul 8, 2018

Deuce said: ↑

Folks, the solution is simple. Give the man a HOODIE!

Click to expand...

He's not Deuce. He's The Answer!

Semi-seriously, if Melo does end up here, and it seems disturbingly likely to me if he doesn't end up in LA, we are all assuming CP3 will give him The Word and he'll listen most of the time, right? That he'll hit a decent number of treys and not fixate on deuces, right? (Or left - I'm not that particular when it comes to basketball). The only problem is getting the league to let Melo wear a hoodie on the court. Silver doesn't seem like a hoodie guy. Heck, he doesn't seem like a Banana guy, either. Are we doomed?

fattz · Jul 8, 2018

Is Melo really just another D. Howard type by another name?

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