A couple of things: 1. Tim Duncan has no leverage to force a deal like the one that was suggested above? What is he going to do if SA doesn't agree to the deal, sign with Houston for the exception? This is different than the Pippen deal, because Pippen could have outright signed with Houston for a starting salary of $9.5M with raises of 10%/year. The Chicago sign and trade, allowed him to get almost $11M the first year with increases of 12% per year. Sure that's alot more money to us, but it wasn't a deal breaker for Pippen. Duncan on the other hand, would be looking at signing for $2M instead of $9M and not be able to get much more for 2 additional years. He's simply not going to do that. He could go sign with Chicago or Oralando and get his $9M, but if he wants that extra 2% salary bump each year, then he would need to get SA involved in a sign and trade. Bottom line is that San Antonio can get much, much more than what's been discussed here for Duncan. They're not going to have to give him away. 2. David Robinson is a free agent after this season. The speculation has been that he might take less money to ensure that Duncan stays. Problem is that SA is allowed to pay them whatever they want (up to the maximum for each), the only question is how much can the owner afford. I personally don't see where it's a money issue. Duncan is going to get his money anyplace that he goes. The bigger question is, does he think that the Spurs can challenge for a title in the immediate future? 3. As stated above, you can't restructure a contract down. That's based on year to year numbers, not on the whole value of the deal. So, if a player is scheduled to make x Million next year, then you can't redo the deal to pay him any less for next year (even if you make it up at the end of the deal). Also, you can't do balloon payments anymore. The maximum raise from year to year is fixed at either 12% (for your own free agents) or 10% (for other teams free agents).
aelliott, You are right - Duncan cannot force San Antonio's hand, but we live in the communication age. Duncan says to SA "There is no way I'm going to re-sign with you, but I'm willing to do a sign and trade, so that a) you get something in return and b) I get more money, as long as you trade me too a team that I'm happy with. The list of teams that Duncan is happy with may be very short and it MAY include Houston. It just MAY be that San Antonio, while not ecstatic about getting Walt Williams (or others) in the deal, will accept it becuase it was the best on offer. Of course, if Duncan is not happy with the any of the teams he can just say screw you SA and your sign and trade, and take his pick between Chicago and Orlando, signing for the maximum. Hence, it is still plausible that we could get Duncan. Our $2mil exception does not come into play. I'm not saying it is likely, but if Duncan wants it, it is very possible, especially considering the $4.5mil trade credit we have.
Ok, let's say Duncan says trade me to Houston or I walk. If the best that we offer is Walt Williams and the Spurs believe that Duncan is serious, then I'm guessing that the Spurs would let him walk. Why would they take on Williams? They'd be better off letting Duncan walk and save the cap space. The fact is Duncan is not going to say "It's Houston or nowhere" and as long as there's multiple teams involved they'll be offers much better than Walt Willaims. What does Orlando have, something like 9 first rounders over the next 4 years? They'd be glad to give up three or 4 of those for Duncan. Sorry, but Duncan for Walt Williams is a pipe dream. Regardless of what teams are on Duncan's short list, the offers for him will be better than just Walt Williams. [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited February 29, 2000).]
The only way that I can see that we will be able to use that $4.5M trade exception is for a overpaid player that some team wants to dump, like Howard or Kemp. Even in those cases, they will want a quality player in return and/or a player who is soon to be a free agent. This is not the case with Duncan and SA. Duncan can not be overpaid and SA does not want to loose him. If SA and Duncan agree to part ways, Duncan will go to the highest bidder in a sign and trade. (Why? Because it is a win-win deal for Duncan and SA.) To be the highest bidder, the Rocks would have to pony up serious talent. We only have one player with serious talent, Francis. The Rocks might also have to give up Cato and Thomas (ie gut the team) to be the highest bidder. I would not be surprised to see the Laker bid Shaq in a Duncan trade bidding war (that is if Shaq does not have a no trade clause or buys into the trade). I think the odds are that Duncan stays in SA. I would not even be surprised to see Duncan and SA work a deal to bring Hill in, which would mean less $$$ for both players).
absolutely...aelliott Pertaining to the argument that SA would trade him because they would fear "nothing" in return...well, Walt is nothing in return!! The best way to package $4.5m is with a cheap, quality player like Mobley, Tmass or Drew for a $5-6m quality starter. Packaging Cato with $4.5m is another possibility. Walt won't land us anything.
Walt isn't the point - I was using him as an example to say that it is possible for us to get Duncan, where as in the previous post, aelliott had said, and I quote: Duncan on the other hand, would be looking at signing for $2M instead of $9M and not be able to get much more for 2 additional years. He's simply not going to do that My point is simply this. It is possible that we could get Duncan via a sign and trade with SA. It would probably involve a lot more than Walt Williams, and could even include Francis, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. If anything we are in a slightly better negotiating position than other teams(except those under the cap) because of our $4.5mil trade credit. For most other teams to match Duncan's Salary in a sign & trade,they have to pony up some serious talent, or some overpaid talent, the latter of which San Antonio would be none to happy about. We could send Drew (notice I'm not using Walt as an example now) plus draft picks to SA, and they won't get burdened with any salary. You have to look no further than our own rockets to see a perfect example of a bad trade situation. In order to move Pippen, we had to take on contracts from several players who were almost immediately released.
What about the exemption we get when dream announces his retirement due to a mystery illness (some call it old age) and is forced to live the rest of his life in a bubble (Dream in a bubble).
Davo, didn't mean to appear i singling out your comments. I was mainly bashing Walt. I've posed duncan scenarios myself. It's definitely a fun salary cap problem. But, with this real $4.5m in hand, i've become much more interested in hunting down $5-6m players. There are a slew of possibilities; e.g., straight trades involving those currently paid that much, and sign-n-trades for free agents.
Achebe: that's confidential. However, I am not holding my breath here at all. This is certainly a mysterious situation, IMHO. Prior to the deadline, I predicted the Rockets would move Cato,Walt,Drew, but that of course did not happen. Then, we learn about the $4.5million trade exception. My only guess is that they are gearing up for some major action this offseason. It would take much more than Walt in a sign and trade deal for SA to bite on this. Why would they trade the best player in the league to a division rival for a cap killer? They're better off just losing Duncan with nothing in return. IMHO, it would take something along the lines of Cato,Drew(and or)Thomas. That itself equals nearly $9million, so we'd have to work around that with the trade exception. The $4.5mill trade exception as well as the crop of young, developing trade bait we have sitting in the refrigerator put us at a great advantage over the other bidders. 4Chuckie brings up a good point. How would Steve Francis react to being supplanted by Duncan as the team leader/go-to guy? A Francis-Duncan tandem has the potential to be remembered forever in league history, but only if both parties sacrifice their game.
Leafhead, I think Steve can take on a diminished role in this offense. He's not an Iverson where he has to take 30 shots a game to be content. I don't think a Steve/Duncan combo would be a problem at all. If anything, Steve's play should be improved with a player down low that can be a threat to score from anywhere on the court inside the 3 pt. line. This scenario is interesting since we have what it may take to acquire Duncan. We have a high first-round pick, we have a player in Mobley with an unGodly low salary, we have one of the best young centers in the league, etc. Then again, we'd be facing the Rockets everytime we traveled to San Antone. ------------------ <this space for rent>
love the signature professor. I think there are plenty of shots to go around nowadays for 2+ superstars to coexist on each team. 20+ shots a night seems feasible by 2 players on a team, in particular where the two players average for 20 rebounds, ~14 assists. then again, (this.post == rockets.getDefense()) which is, as rudyt said...
no...raises are capped as well. no more balloon payments. Renegotiated contracts are capped at 112.5% increases with 12.5% raises. Plus, renegotiation is not allowed until you fulfilled at least 3 yrs of a contract already. You may not renegotiate salary or # of seasons downward. No signing bonuses. There are minor pay increases you can achieve, mainly only the difference between your original raise and your new raise amount. All of this must be done under the cap. For all intents and purposes, renegotiations are about extending a contract, not giving significant pay increases. The spirit of the new CBA is to prevent all loop-holes involving getting around the cap. The ability of agents to demand more money through renegotiations, or teams and players to conspire to free up cap room through paycuts/balloon pay, has been eliminated. About all you can achieve now is more security in a longer contract. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited February 29, 2000).]
for pick-n-roll mavens and closet fans of Stockton: duncan and francis would destroy any memory of malone and stockton's pick-n-roll.
Heypartner. Man your last response just brought a huge smile to my face. What a scary thought!!! Nothing wrong in dreaming!!! Hope it comes true! ------------------ "There is Francis backpedaling at full speed to guard Seattle All-Star Gary Payton on a fast break and then leaping as if off a springboard to make a spectacular fingertip block on what appeared to be a sure layup."
How about I kidnap Jay Howard, torture him until the Spurs agree to trade Duncan to us for Cato, Drew, Walt and exception? I was planning to do it anyway. Only problem is that the Spurs may be relieved that they finally got rid of Howard. This post is pure satire...or is it
