How the Trade affects the Rockets Salary going into the Summer

Here is a look at the Rockets Salary going forward with the current team and what it will look like going into this summer’s free agency. We already know Daryl Morey plans to be a player in this summer’s free-agency market via a sign and trade. Its common knowledge that with the trades DM made that the Rockets will be above the salary cap.

Luis Scola is coming off his 3rd year but not coming off a rookie scale contract and less than average NBA Salary therefore his cap hold is calculated at 200% of his final salary.
Kyle Lowry and Hilton Armstrong are coming off 4th year rookie scale contract and make less than the average NBA salary therefore his cap hold calculated at 300% of his final salary.

Code:

[b]Salary including cap holds for summer 2010[/b]
[b]Player	        2009/2010	2010/2011	2011/2012[/b]
Yao Ming	$16,378,325 	[b][color=purple]$17,686,100[/color][/b] 	N/A
Kevin Martin	$9,680,170 	$10,600,005 	$11,519,840 
Shane Battier	$6,939,200 	$7,429,500 	N/A
Jared Jeffries	$6,466,600 	[b][color=purple]$6,883,800[/color][/b] 	N/A
Trevor Ariza	$5,854,000 	$6,322,320 	$6,790,640 
Brian Cook	$3,500,000 	N/A	         N/A
Luis Scola	$3,284,667 	[b][color=red]$6,569,334[/color][/b] 	N/A
H Armstrong	$2,801,198 	[b][color=red]$8,403,594[/color][/b] 	N/A
Jordan Hill	$2,483,280 	$2,669,520 	$2,855,760 
David Andersen	$2,314,815 	$2,500,000 	$2,685,185 
Chuck Hayes	$2,147,750 	[b][color=blue]$2,334,125[/color][/b] 	N/A
Kyle Lowry	$2,034,996 	[b][color=red]$6,104,988[/color][/b] 	N/A
Aaron Brooks	$1,118,520 	$2,016,692 	$2,976,636 
[color=green]Brent Barry[/color] 	$1,062,800 	N/A	          N/A
Jermaine Taylor	$725,000 	$780,871 	$884,293 
Chase Budinger	$725,000 	$780,871 	$884,293 
[color=green]Mike Harris[/color] 	$82,306 	N/A	          N/A
[color=green]Will Conroy[/color] 	$43,319 	N/A	          N/A
[color=green]Garrett Temple[/color] 	$26,917 	N/A	          N/A
#14 2010 draft*		        $1,519,400 	$1,633,300 
#10 2011 draft*			                $1,923,600 
Total salaries:	$67,668,863 	$82,601,120 	$32,153,547 
L/T Threshold	$69,920,000 	$66,000,000*	
			
Salary Cap	$57,700,000 	$54,000,000*			
Blue - team option     			
Red - Salary Cap Hold  			
Purple - Early termination			
Green - not on team			
* - Estimate			

Code:

[b]Salary including estimated salaries for restricted free agents summer 2010[/b]
[b]Player	        2009/2010	2010/2011	2011/2012[/b]
Yao Ming	$16,378,325 	[b][color=purple]$17,686,100[/color][/b] 	N/A
Kevin Martin	$9,680,170 	$10,600,005 	$11,519,840 
Shane Battier	$6,939,200 	$7,429,500 	N/A
Jared Jeffries	$6,466,600 	[b][color=purple]$6,883,800[/color][/b] 	N/A
Trevor Ariza	$5,854,000 	$6,322,320 	$6,790,640 
Brian Cook	$3,500,000 	N/A	         N/A
Luis Scola	$3,284,667 	[b][color=red]$4,105,834[/color][/b] 	N/A
H Armstrong	$2,801,198 	[b][color=red]$992,268[/color][/b] 	N/A
Jordan Hill	$2,483,280 	$2,669,520 	$2,855,760 
David Andersen	$2,314,815 	$2,500,000 	$2,685,185 
Chuck Hayes	$2,147,750 	[b][color=blue]$2,334,125[/color][/b] 	N/A
Kyle Lowry	$2,034,996 	[b][color=red]$2,975,165[/color][/b] 	N/A
Aaron Brooks	$1,118,520 	$2,016,692 	$2,976,636 
[color=green]Brent Barry[/color] 	$1,062,800 	N/A	          N/A
Jermaine Taylor	$725,000 	$780,871 	$884,293 
Chase Budinger	$725,000 	$780,871 	$884,293 
[color=green]Mike Harris[/color] 	$82,306 	N/A	          N/A
[color=green]Will Conroy[/color] 	$43,319 	N/A	          N/A
[color=green]Garrett Temple[/color] 	$26,917 	N/A	          N/A
#14 2010 draft*		        $1,519,400 	$1,633,300 
#10 2011 draft*			                $1,923,600 
Total salaries:	$67,668,863 	$69,596,471 	$32,153,547 
L/T Threshold	$69,920,000 	$66,000,000*	
			
Salary Cap	$57,700,000 	$54,000,000*			
Blue - team option     			
Red - Estimated Salary  			
Purple - Early termination			
Green - not on team			
* - Estimate			

Based on where the Rockets are salary cap wise and where they will be in two years I believe Morey will play hard ball with Luis and Kyle in order to make it possible for the team to get below the Luxury Tax Threshold prior to next seasons trading deadline. Knowing that Morey has every intention of re-signing both players and that few teams will be able to offer more than the MLE I just don’t see Scola or Lowry having much leverage. DM is likely banking on his ability to move Jeffries contract at the trade deadline to get the Rockets back under the Luxury Tax Threshold. He can not use Jefferies contract to get under the salary cap if he offers too much to Lowry and Scola. Of course there is the possibility that either or both could be part of a sign and trade.

Hilton Armstrong will have a very big cap hold based on the fact that he is a 4 year veteran coming off a rookie scale contract. He has been a 4 year scrub and hardly worth the 2.8 million he is being paid but if he can show enough heading into the summer DM might be tempted to offer him the vets minimum just under 1 million a year for a 4 year vet. This could allow DM to cut Chuck who is scheduled to make 2.3 million next season which could be important next February when the Rockets are trying to get under the Luxury Tax Threshold.

What is DM willing to offer in a sign and trade this summer? Hard to know for sure or who will be available. Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Amare? Obviously the Rockets have some interest in Amare but I believe that Bosh is their real target providing he is willing to leave Toronto. Looking at the team and knowing that 1st round picks equal guaranteed money for un-proven talent I would think the Rockets would be more than willing to offer up it’s 2011 and one of it’s 2012 draft picks to a team as sweetener in a deal. The chance for a team to have multiple lottery picks in two straight years would seem to be appealing on the surface.

 

sweet!

 

That is correct.

The Rockets hold team options for Hill for the 11/12 season and the 12/13 season.

 

I think if he were an un-restricted free agent you might be right. I just don't think any GM is going to waste their time trying to sign either Scola or Lowry this summer because they know DM will match. Plus there are not that many teams that will be able to offer that kind of money.

Just based on how DM handled the Landry situation a couple of years ago I don't think he will get into a bidding war with himself. I think when its said and done both Scola and Lowry will be signed for one year at or very near the qualifying offer for restricted free agents.

 

I agree. I just think his big pay day is coming in 2011 but you never know. If some other GM offers him 6.5 mil for 5 years the Rockets still win because they get out of the 6th year plus all the other team can offer is an 8% increase every year. If the Rockets offer him a 6.5 mil a year salary he would expect all 6 years and the full 10.5% increase a year due to the Rockets bird rights.

The more likely scenario if another team makes Scola an offer would be 5.5 mil (the MLE) for 5 years and an 8% a year increase per year. Of course Morey would need about 5 seconds to match that offer.

 

I agree that they can afford to but if at all possible they will avoid it. We have seen Morey do this every year.