How much money and how many free agents do we need to win in 08?

To me, it depends on a couple of things:

1. Will the Astros play Bruntlett as SS next year? Based on his .286 average and decent defense, I sure would.

2. Will they give Scott and his .833 OPS the RF job? I would. His OPS is right about the MLB average for that position. One also never knows how Scott will improve based on consistent playing time and experience.

3. If you commit to Bruntlett at SS, what can you get in an Adam Everett trade? Maybe not much, but maybe a young C.

If you want a good shot to win next year, you need via free agency a catcher who can hit for average, if not power and one decent SP. You can relegate Woody to the pen.

Lineup:
1B Berkman
2B Burke/Bruntlett/Wigginton
SS Bruntlett/Everett (if not traded)
3B Wigginton/Lamb
C Get via FA
LF Lee
CF Pence
RF Scott

SP Oswalt
SP Get via FA
SP Backe
SP Sampson
SP Wandy

In relief you have Lidge, Qualls, Woody, Miller, and Albers.

We will probably resign Jennings because after his performance, you can probably get him on the cheap. If his performance this year was an aberration due to his yet unhealed injury, he could put it back together next year and do well. You could slide him into the rotation and slide either Wandy or Sampson out.

For a decent offensive C and a middle of the rotation SP, you probably only have to spend $20MM or so in FA. Out $95MM payroll this year plus $20MM totals $115MM in total payroll next year.

I really think that since Scott and Bruntlett have started to come into their own, they could be viable solutions from iside the organization.

 

^^ That team is similar to this year's team, and that is not a good thing.

 

There's no way that Bruntlett should be playing every day. His offense is only slightly better than Everett's, and he's nowhere near the defender. I love his versatility, but it's really the only reason he has a big league job.

 

Yeah. "Solution" is the wrong word for starting Bruntlett at shortstop, because for better (which is my opinion) or for worse, it seems the org. is committed to keeping Adam there full-time.

 

I agree to the extent that 40 to 50 point difference on a batting average is only slightly better.

 

Zambrano can give us the ol' hometown discount? Maybe?



after all, he's from houston, lololololololol

 

Putting aside the fact that batting average alone is an insufficient means to compare value, Bruntlett is a career 0.260 hitter while Everett is at 0.250.

So you're really willing to put your support behind Bruntlett based on 77 AB this year and call him a .286 hitter? In fact, he was batting 0.260 in 2007 before last night. So you're essentially willing to put all your eggs in Bruntlett's basket because of a single 3-hit game.

 

Get a catcher, two legit starters, and at least one more middle relief pitcher. However much money that takes. I'm not holding my breath.

 

Are you joking, or do you expect the Astros' pitchers to strike out everyone next year?

 

I believe the answer is quite simple, yet highly unlikely. We just need to sign one main guy, and that would be Big Z, Carlos Zambrano. I am not a cubs fan at all, but this guy is a beast, and sure he would probably get more than $100, especially after zito stole all that money from the giants. Then adding a little bullpen help never hurts. But our rotation would be Roy O, Zambrano, hopefully a healthy Backe, Wandy/Sampson/Jennings, and we could even throw in Patton for the fifth spot. I don't think that's a bad rotation at all. But as I said, this is probably all wishful thinking.

 

zambrano is going to be a cub

 

eric bruntlett isn't a .280+ hitter. not over any long term stretch. and he's nowhere near what AE is in the field.

 

i'd have a real hard time paying ANY pitcher that kind of money.

 

we just need some pitching, starting and bullpen...to win.

 

I concur sir !

DD

 

I did the math, for myself, a long time ago. Thankfully I still have the notebook. It maybe a little long winded. Sorry.

I say 120 million. Roughly 20 million is going out in the various players that are either going to retire or are free agents at the end of the year. The team salary is at 83.8 million. If you spend 150 million next season, the Astros would have spent around 85 million in the offseason. That's pretty crazy if you asked me. At 120 million you got around 56 million. That's on raises in contract players, arbitration players, and on free agents. Berkman, Oswalt, and Woody are all going to make the same next season as last season. Only Lee has a raise on his contract, and it's only 1 million raise. He then gets a 6.5 million dollar raise the year after and it stays like that from then on.

So set off 3 million for Lee. 53 million
Arbitration players, just a wild worst case guess. 15 million. Now your at 38 million to spend in FA.

We all know the needs. It's the order of the needs that is debatable. I figure our immediate needs are SP, RP, RP, C (in no order). Now you may include 3rd and RF, but those arn't needs. Those are upgrades.

Now I have that needs list after bringing back T. Miller to be the lefty specialist. LH opponents are hitting .235 against him. That's just fine for a lefty specialist. As much as I like McLemore, he just doesn't have the breaking stuff that you'd want in that role. He's more of a middle reliever/future setup guy. Besides, Miller isn't going to cost you that much as it is. At most I figure 2 million. So you still have 36 million to work with in the FA market on those needs.

So if your working with 120 million go spend 36 million in the FA market. If your going with 150 million, I think that's insane, but go spend 66 million in the FA market... If you can.

 

I agree as well.

 

We don't know what Bruntlett will be if given consistent PT. He has been given some consistent PT recently, and has been swinging the bat well recently.