How much can we afford to re-sign Bonzi one year later?

Actually, no.

We have Rudy and Pau and will be adding (Oden, Durant) plus a MAX free agent. We will be OK.

 

I think MLE will be the only way to keep Wells next summer.

 

Bonzi will be 31 next year. If he plays well here, likes the environment, I don't see why he would want to leave. It's not like the money other teams will offer him will be vastly more than what the Rockets will.

 

Lets just hope that he has a productive and healthy season before we talk about how much we want to re-sign him after this upcoming season. Crawl before walking.

 

ok guys don't forget Wells value will only decrease with his age and not increase regardless of how skillful he may be.

Wells was one of the top FA this season mainly dude to the lack of quality FA players available. The offer that he got from the kings will be the best and last big offer he will ever get. He is one year older and not younger.

Chances are Rockets can still sign him next year with our MLE. no other team out there will offer him more than that. Specially when next off season is suppose to be full of talented pool of FAs

It will all depend on how this year will pan out and how wells get along with the rest of the team. Money isn't all there is, and don't forget endorsement from China. Ask battier if u wonder why/how. I am sure bonzi will get his "endorsement" if he choose to be a long term with Rox.

I wouldn't worry about not having bonzi next season. Superstars can draw talents.

 

the FA market next season is so good that bonzi won't get a better offer than the MLE. the rockets can offer him the MLE. done and done.

 

Straight up! All i know, i seat on one of the best seat in the TC watching the best rosters since Dream, Thorpe, Eli, Sam,Kenny and the rest of the gang era! Thanks CD for the wonderful opportunity.

 

I don't know if we will want him long term, but if we do, I don't think he can get more anywhere else. What teams are going to be under the cap that will want him? To get more money a team under the cap would have to give him a big contract and I don't see that happening. He's looking at a MLE deal next year for sure imo whether it's from us or some other team.

 

Agreed.

Correct, teams with cap space had no interest in a big long term deal for Bonzi this year, it would be even more improbable next year with a better FA crop and Bonzi hitting 31 prior to the season.

However we do want to see how he fits in. One nice thing is the most we could possibly offer, and the most anyone else will offer, is a 5 year MLE (30 mil). It does look like he can get a 5th year, unlike the Mike James, who was forced into a 4 year contract because of the over 36 rule and because James 31st b-day was just before the moratorium (June) where Bonzi's 31st will be next year in Sep. James being born in June instead of July or August cost him 6 mil (which we costed him by tading him to someplace that didn't want to resign him), and made his deal for Minny and the competitors sweet.

We will just have to see if we want to offer Bonzi most or all of a 5 year MLE, or whether we think another direction is better. Depends on his performance, as well as that of Snyder, VSpan, Head, and other FA targets etc. We are in prime position to evaluate and get a cheap rental at worst, that is for sure.

 

Sage advice, as always, from MX. Hopefully Snyder develops to the point that he is ready to start next year, and Bonzi becomes expendible.

 

I've gone over the CBA rules, how the increases go and crunched the numbers.

Bonzi will be able to get 5 years $34 million from any other team at MLE level next year.

Houston will be able to offer him 5 years $40 million next year using their MLE.

Bonzi would get roughly $8 million a year.

The Rockets would also have the LLE and rights to match any offers made to Chuck Hayes.

So........

Unless some team under the cap offered Bonzi more than $40 million, or unless some other team came in big in a sign and trade (possibly for a big man - perhaps Denver?)

I highly doubt that Bonzi is leaving if everything works out.

If he pans out and has a great year and settles in as option 3, then the Rockets would offer that $40 million, and it's very doubtful some other team would exceed it, even then it would be minimal and why would Wells leave the perfect situation? he might even get a ring.

All things considered, by taking that smaller deal with Houston, he will probably end up getting much more money and where he wanted to be - Houston.

I doubt the Rockets will pass up on him for $40 million if he pans out, especially if it means winning or close to winning a title, and again I doubt some other team will compete with that number. And Wells won't take $6 million less to go to some other team for the MLE, and more likely if someone under the cap offers $40 million over 5, then it won't be as good a fit or situation for him as Houston is.

PLUS the marketing, if Battier already got a $4 million shoe deal in China, plus what these guys get in sales, etc ( Sura said he made more in endorsements his first year playing with Yao than the rest of his career combined), then obviously Houston is where the money is at.

It all comes down to how he acts and if he does his job, then the Rockets will give him the deal.

 

Bonzi turned 30 a few weeks ago, so if they were to sign him for 5 years at the end of the season, the deal would take him to almost 36. That would definitely be a tough decision for management, but this years results will determine the value of the risk. If he helps us win a championship or go to the finals, the deal is done. If we get eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round and we need to make changes to improve... there is no way to even guess at a scenario like that right now.

 

RD, I think we are limited to 5 years $34 mil like every other team using the MLE after Bonzi opts out, which he will unless he is badly injured because there is no incentive for him to wait for an early Bird (2 years) with us given the over 36 rule coming into play (the extra year early of starting a full MLE/average salary contract is a lot more than the 2.5 difference in raises the Early Bird/average salary contract affords). Also, the 10.5% raises and 6th year only come if you have early Bird or full Bird rights, not your own MLE signing for a non-Bird FA. Besides, even if we had Early Bird or Full Bird, 5 years would be the max next year for Bonzi because of the over 36 rule.

I don't see any problem at all with getting Hayes via the Early Bird (having him 2 years), not using the MLE or LLE. I would be wrong about having Hayes's early Bird rights after next year, but I think we do.

I am not sure if we will want to use a full MLE on Bonzi next year, or that anyone else for a 31 year old swingman with a mixed history. He made to finish next year as he did for Sac, being a force. Bonzi has a lot of incentive to play well and be a model team citizen this year, great for us.

 

Don't forget a big factor in the salary. In Texas there are no state income taxes and it is a lot cheaper to buy housing here as an investment incentive, i.e. a way to make more money while they are here.

An insider to the Rockets administration told me the "cheap housing issue" was the way they got around the salary limitations here and gave the new player more "money"...

 

Whose contracts are expiring??

 

Agreed. I see Snyder as the replacement for Bonzi just in case he leaves next year. Both good rebounders. I hope everything lines up for this team this year and Wells does well, but if he asks for anything more than 3 years, then forget it.

 

so i read the rules and saw this for the early bird exception

"This is the lesser form of the Larry Bird Exception. Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "early qualifying veteran free agents," and qualify after playing two seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. Using this exception, a team can re-sign its own free agent for either 175% of his salary the previous season, or the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater. Early Bird contracts must be for at least two seasons, but can last no longer than five seasons."


so heres what i think if bonzi plays well here and wants to stay he could not opt out the 2nd year and houston could resign him for up to 175% of the avergae salary, which is the same as the mle. So if the mle for 2008-2009 is lets say $5.5/year then houston could pay him up to $9.625/ year (1.75 x 5.5) so if he plays well this year at the end of the year they could guarantee him he will be resinged for more than the mle if he just doesnt opt out. He knows from this off-season that he shouldnt turn down an offer over the mle for more money since he wants to be on a winning team and still make his money and teams under the cap are the only ones that will sign him for more than the mle but are they better contenders than houston?? so if he stays he could end up better off.

 

The Early Bird is 1.75 last seasons salary OR the average salary, whichever is higher. The average salary in this case is higher than 1.75X Bonzi's year 2 salary. The average salary is also used in MLEs, but the Early Bird allows for 2.5% higher raises and an extra year, except that because of Bonzi's age he can't use the 6th year anyway (over 36 rule), so delaying 1 year for an Early Bird costs him that year of salary anyway.

Bonzi he will opt out after 1 year. This is true even if he wants to stay a Rocket (in the case the Rockets can use their MLE). I think the only reason the option year was tacked on is just in case he gets a bad injury and doesn't think anyone will give him 2 mil or so, but it is 90% likely his 2nd year it is declined.

The early bird should work for Hayes though, under the rosiest of scenarios for Chuck's play I can't imagine that would not be enough.

 

This is way too confusing, sorry but why can't the NBA be like MLB ala New York Yankees where salaray cap is not an issue? I don't get it.

 

can't teams frontload the contract to make it so the MLE won't be able to cover the first year?