How Many Shots are Available to the Rockets Starting Power Forward?

Using FGA attempts rather than some measure of possessions used such as FGA+FTA variation+TO seems inaccurate. Like the other posters said before, low FGA is correlated with high FTA, which is an effect of a team being great, rather than being the cause of greatness. Also, reducing other players' FGA could raise their efficiency and improve the offense overall as well, so there's no reason to fix our incumbent starters' shot numbers.

 

Last year whenever Harden missed a game, the Rockets always (or almost always) won. Harden out for three games, the Rox win three games in a row. Harden out against San Antonio, the Rox beat San Antonio. Lin, Parson, Dwight, Bev and Asik can more than adequately hold the fort until Harden gets back. Also don't think TJOnes and/or DMo won't surprise this year...

LeMarcus Aldridge would not be happy about only getting 3 or 4 shots a game and having his chief job be running around the floor to try to create openings for the other stars and finding creative ways to pass the ball into Dwight. That's yeoman's work.

 

Did you hear McHale's response to the "PF question" in the interview which he gave after yesterday's game? He said that "the (starting) PF's job is just to make the stars better".

Every team needs a glue guy. I've reminded of a guy named Ryan Bowen who didn't exactly pack the stat sheet but did all the little things so well that on a team with stars (i.e. McGrady and Yao) he was one of the most important guys on the floor. The Rox have two superstars and two stars-in-the-making. The starting unit offensively does not need any more creators (Howard, Harden, Lin and Parsons all can take their man off the dribble) right now, it needs facilitators.

 

With Harden and Howard, and maybe even Lin, we have such an advantage in terms of getting to the free throw line. This is gonna be so big for us aligning us extra free throws and putting the opponent in the penalty early. That itself is gonna give us the edge over most teams.

 

Way to work out your solar-powered calculator.

 

I am not sure if TJones is that guy you seek. He scores the rock well enough but not in the mold of a JR Smith who is strictly a bench scorer and volume shooter.
He is good at scoring and does everything well enough and to me his passing will come along once he is being trusted in a unit.
He has progressed but has a long way to become a complete player.

His rebounding will be good and his blocking and stealing abilities are near elite for his position.
He has to learn how to pace himself and not go out and lose control.
Has to trust his team mates more

 

Good thread.

and for spoilers type {spoiler}text{/spoiler}
but use brackets instead [ ]

 

[spoyler]...text.....[/spoyler]
y>>>i

 

While I agree with the idea that the PF position should just play a support role(keep the defenses honest) with our starting lineup, unfortunately it's a little more complicated with a 82 game regular season. I do believe the Rockets can greatly benefit from one more shot creator. This player doesn't have to be a PF. A JR Smith/Jamal Crawford type of player would suffice(it's the same reason that I prefer to have Lin as 6th man as this type of player). Someone who can allow Harden to pace himself in the regular season.

I push for Aldridge because I feel he solves several issues with this team. One is that Asik's production is marginalized due to his role. The other is having a backup center when Howard is out following any Asik trade. Because Aldridge can play center. And 3rd as a shot creator to lessen offensive load on Harden and Howard. All while being a perfectly fine "role player" at the end of games. Also, fwiw, he's developed a 3pt game. And probably can shoot from the corners where DMo currently sets up.

 

Once again, if we trade for a superstar power forward that guy will get at worst the third most shots. He'll get about 80% of Lin's shots (since Lin will most likely be traded in the package for him) plus the 4-6 shots the pf is going to get in this scenario.

A superstar is a superstar. You can debate all day about whether Lamarcus is a superstar or not. But just remember if Morey trades for him, he's going to get at worst the third most shots or more accurately put, he's gonna use at worst the third most possessions. Even if by some miracle we are able to acquire that superstar without giving up Lin he will still have at worst the third most usage with Lin's and Parsons usage going down.

 

I agree with this post and it looks like DMo is the best at playing a complimentary role.

DD

 

Spoiler

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Aldridge fills the Bosh role better than Bosh really. In that Miami tend to stagger the minutes so that Bosh plays alone with the 2nd unit for long stretches in the 2nd and 3rd quarter and gets the lion's share of the offense, but since lebron's minutes get extended during the playoffs, you see bosh getting less offense as well.

Aldridge's PER against backup centers is approaching 30, his back to the basket game (which Bosh lacks) is far too polished for any of them and leads to a ridiculous number of easy layups.

i assume we'd do something similar, play him with Harden/Howard for about half his minutes, and without the other half and make sure he or Howard is out there at all times.

You need to break it down into scoring attempts using a TS calculation, the best players tend to get fouled a lot, and subsequently take a lot of free throws, and the best players are also the guys playing in the playoffs.

 

Great read. This is why Morey will most likely be looking for more of a Battier type for this spot. If the Rockets were to acquire a dynamic player at the PF position, that player would need to be put in a 6th man type of role in order to maximize their attributes offensively.

The Rockets need the 5th wheel with their starting unit to be able to increase the overall efficiency of the shots that Howard, Harden, Lin, and Parsons get.

The 3 most important attributes that starting PF needs are -

-Great Passing
-Great team defense
-Good spacing

These are the 3 attributes that will help maximize the play of Howard/Harden and put them in the best possible positions to decrease the amount of dud games they are bound to have.

So lets look at the PF's currently on the roster-

-D-Mo- underrated passing ability, improving team defense but still raw, and bad floor spacing but has great form on his shot.

-Jones- More of a dynamic player offensively and defensively. Not much of a passer, high upside defender, and poor shooter.

-Smith- OK team defender, Bad spacer, and poor passer.

-Casspi- Good spacer, bad team defender, OK passer.

Right now, I understand why D-Mo might get more and more time starting at the PF position, and have Jones come off the bench as a more dynamic scoring option. D-Mo has a ton of work to do to shore up the areas of concern (shot making & more consistent defense), but he has shown some promise.

If you are going to start Smith, you might as well just start Asik along with Howard first. Asik can do the same things Smith can but X10, and hits 2 or the 3 needs to start as the 5th wheel in underrated passing & excellent team defense.

If Casspi can learn the defensive schemes and show that he's a viable option for feeding the post, then I'm very comfortable giving him a shot at starting. However right now I'm only comfortable giving him 1 of 3 stars.

I really like Jones coming off the bench right now. I think his talent will be maximized playing alongside established veteran bench players where he can handle the ball a little more, and get more looks on offense. 6th man big man coming off the bench might be the best way to maximize his potential this year.

 

The only game we beat San Antonio was Harden's game winner, the one he missed, Lin nearly scored 40 and we still lost.

 

My case for Terrence Jones: Last season Jones (in comparison to D-Mo) had a slightly higher assist ratio, slightly lower turnover ratio, significantly better rebound rate and less usage. I would also note that these are based on small sample sizes. He is also younger, played a superb complimentary role on loaded Kentucky teams in college and is likely the 2nd best (yes, better than Asik) shot blocker on the team.

D-Mo has a height advantage and a rep as a shooter but I don't like either of them from 3 point land and I agree that whoever starts should not take many shots. Jones makes up for his height disadvantage with superior wingspan, athletic ability and strength.

They both run the court well, I would give that advantage to D-Mo and I do like him better in the post as well even if he didn't show it last preseason game.

Overall I think Terrence wins this and I have faith he will get the lion's share of playing time at the 4, at least between these two players.

 

If you watch Jones play, he looks lost off the ball - that is the key - playing OFF the ball.

DMo understands that concept, and being that our PF will need to play off the ball and be able to understand angles, passing, and spacing, Dmo is far and away the better starting option.

TJones just looks great on the ball, and terrible off of it.

DD

 

makes a lot of sense the way you broke it down ! a guy like Ppat would be perfect basically ?

 

Not completely. Shane Battier would be perfect even though he's not a true PF he can do pretty much everything a 4 man would need to do to elevate the other 4 starters game.

Great post passer, Great team defender, and stretches the floor.

Not sure about 2Pat's passing ability. The Rockets really need someone who can consistently feed the ball in the post to Howard & put him in great spots to draw in the defense.