How ludicruous is the idea that Lebron/Bosh/Wade win 45 games?

How many wins did the 98 squad have?

 

It does seem strange. Maybe Morey is factoring in what Miami would have to give up in a sign and trade for Bosh.

I can't imagine a team with those three winning less than 55 games, though.

 

I hope Morey gets in front of this ridiculous non story before the media sinks their fangs into it.

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My suspicion is that Morey's "45-win estimate" for Miami was built around Bosh teaming up with Wade and not Wade/LeBron, since even Bosh himself has admitted that LeBron going there too was a "pie in the sky" idea. It's not reasonable for a number of reasons, and Morey knows it.

However, I could see someone telling Ford that Morey had a plan showing the flaws in Miami's scheme, and ESPN just assuming that to mean their media-created dream of LBJ/Wade/Bosh teaming up.

 

Morey definitely lowballing that number. But LBJ/Wade/Bosh would still have to work very hard during the season to get their 55+ wins. It would probably take just a little less work then what they had to do last season on their respectively bad teams.

Anyways, I'm convinced LBJ won't go to Miami so I think the debate is whether Wade +South Beach + whomever else they can get is an attractive package to Bosh.

 

I would of thought you would be on board with this.

If your rotation includes 3 second round picks and min salary guys, it doesnt matter how good your 1-2-3 is, you wont win a ton of games.

Furthermore Wade and Lebron are redundant. Both are high usage guys who need the ball in thier hands, so its likely they won't be as good together as they would apart. Finally neither can shoot so the opposing team can pack the paint and defend that team fairly easily.

 

I think the Rockets have shown in the recent past that even when your role players are 2nd-round picks or minimum-salary guys, you can still do alright. Really great players can mask the deficiencies of others. They can load up on specialists that are 1-dimensional to fill in the holes -- guys who wouldn't be highly coveted elsewhere where the would be asked to do more -- and they should still be very good.

 

Morey is looking at it from a salary cap room issue, and he is making assumptions that some players may want to come play with them for a low contract.

Players like Shaq may come in and give it a go for a year or so....for the LLE....

DD

 

I am highly skeptical that Morey walked into that meeting and simply said "you can win 60 with us or 45 with three superstars plus minimum contracts." Most meetings are more in depth than a tweet. I'm sure he laid out a sophisticated metric system, and then used it to predict ALL relevant scenarios, including but not limited to: 3 superstars in miami, 2 superstars and a few solid players in miami, LBJ and Bosh in Chicago, Bosh in Ny, and Bosh in Houston (with yao healthy and hurt). Just because Chad Ford summarized what he knew of the meeting doesn't mean that was what was presented in its entirety.

For my money, it doesn't seem that far fetched that 3 superstars and a few scrubs could win only 45 games. They are just one injury away from only two superstars. Even teams with two superstars needed decent supporting casts.

 

45 wins is still home court in the east. I just hope we dont give up brooks without some hope of replacing his role. (not just putting in lowry)

 

Not as ludicrous as the idea that this deal would actually happen - it looks to be mathematically impossible. I am inclined to trust in Larry Coon's calculus which means that Miami, after signing Wade, only has room for 1.67 max deals.

 

Yeah, I want to think Morey was a little more subtle than to point blank predict 45 wins like that -- that would stand a good chance of backfiring by insulting the man and making him want to prove DM wrong, I think.

 

I didn't read every post so some of this may have already been covered:

Wade, LeBron and Bosh can't play 48 minutes a game, 82 games a season.

Boston had much better role players than the Heat would be able to sign for the minimum. Rondo is probably the Celtics best player right now.

People are overestimating the NBA players who actually would sign for nothing and give up millions. A lot of has-beens but no one of substance.

Role players matter. Even Jordan and Pippen were surrounded by great complimentary players. So were Shaq and Kobe, Duncan, etc...

What if one of the big 3 is injured for any substantial length of time? Then you might not even win 45.

I seriously doubt this will happen in Miami, but if it does, it doesn't guarantee them anything. They will sell a lot of tickets and jerseys, but you still have to win the games.

 

Morey's numbers(45 wins for the Heat) might seem low considering the Heat are in the East BUT you gotta figure that most of the teams with cap room right now are in the east meaning there is likely going to be an upgrade in talent across the board by eastern Conference teams. The West if anything is getting older. Kobe is older with a deformed finger, the Spurs are way past their prime, Dallas is considering Shaq and Kidd in their starting lineup, the Blazer's best players are also their two most injury prone(and well same for Houston), the Hornets are about to be blown up, the Jazz are about to lose their 2nd best player and likely won't chase a high profile replacement, etc.

The West might be getting easier this year while the East gets tougher with young teams and new talent. Most of the big time lotto talent landed in the East and it appears the West will lose at least one or two decent players to the East(for sure Boozer, maybe Amare) and won't likely pick up any more talent. And the stars in the east who will likely stay in the East are talking about joining forces meaning the concentration of talent won't be spread out there like it is now. This past year Orlando and Boston were the only EC teams with multi-superstars. That likely won't be the case next year as the talent builds in specific teams. This is a changing of the guard - you have to stay in front of it and Houston is trying to do just that.

 

John Hollinger makes an attempt to answer the same question that Morey answered with "45 wins".

LINK

Someone care to "enlighten" me?

 

Many are forgetting one BIG fact: The Celtics and, to a lesser extent due to lack of championship hardware from this Big Three, the Rockets had a dominating inside presence on offense AS WELL AS defense. The Rockets had Olajuwon anchoring the defense and the Celtics had a very motivated and determined Garnett (and to a less extent in 2008, Kendrick Perkins) anchoring the Celtics' defense.

Who are the Heat going to bring in for peanuts to man the middle? Bosh isn't a slouch on defense but he is by no means a dominating (or even intimidating) defensive player. You put LeBron, Wade, and Bosh together you won't need a good starting point guard but you still have a glaring hole at the 5.

Jermaine O'Neal? Shaq? Brad Miller? Any of those guys would get eaten up by Dwight Howard next season or, if they even make it to the Finals, wouldn't stand a chance against Gasol/Bynum.

This problem is just one of many issues concerning a team of 3 max players + 12 minimum players. It's awesome to think 3 can be on one team but the Heat don't have 1. a supporting cast of players already there that can contribute like what the 2008 Celtics had and 2. a great defensive front line (especially at center) like what the Rockets had with Olajuwon all those years.

 

He predicted their PER for next year (29, 26, 23) and minutes played (3100, 2850, 2600), and assumed everyone else had a replacement level PER of 10 (what he calls a "worst case" scenario). From that, his model predicted 61 wins. He did say that if any of the big three have a prolonged absence, the win total would be closer to .500. Meaning it would be crucial that all three are healthy throughout the season.

 

first, it's horrible to compare a team now and one in the 90s...it's been a DECADE...the league is much more competitive.

Second....i was one that believed it was possibly for riley to recruit other FAs and get them to take less to play with this big 3....however, the more time passes the lesss likely that scenario becomes. Those other FAs will be getting more and more offers and eventually someone will offer too much money, the wont wait around to see if the big 3 pair up.

Third...there's an issue of how it all fits on the court...the big 3 have a lot of talent, but who's protecting the rim? Boston had perkins and KG was more of a shot blocker than Bosh ever has been. Allen was their spot up shooter, House did well in that role as well...even pierce. Wade can't shoot, and neither can lebron...they're very streaky at best...without a shooter or two they become less effective, just ask lebron, that's why he hasnt won a ring. Then there's the PG issue...although lebron and wade dominate the ball, that's in the halfcourt...you need a solid pg to handle the ball upcourt. Lebron and wade can do it, but you dont want them to be too involved in dribbling upcourt, they're still too big and dribble too wide for that, especially if there is a press.


so yes it's possible for them to field a team better than 45 wins, but they have to get it perfect, not much room for error in building a team around those guys with less than 8 mill available.....time is their enemy

 

Notice he said "pairing." Meaning Wade-Bosh, Wade-Lebron combination. NOT the trio. Of course trio will win more than 45games. Now in regard to trio..he said there won't be enough supporting cast to WIN the Championship...which is correct.

 

Yeah I agree. The potential is there for greatness, but there's a LOT more "if"s than when the Boston Big 3 got together. Not to say that there weren't tons of "if"s when Boston got Garnett and Allen, but when it happened, all three of them Garnett Pierce and Allen were still dominant and just coming off dominant years, like not just all-star level the way they are now but certain all-stars and in Garnett's case a former MVP. Plus, the pieces all fit together much better than they do now. Only Pierce was a ball dominator, and he reprised his role in the re-tooled Boston lineup. Allen was just what the doctor ordered; the best spot up shooter in the league to keep defenses honest on Pierce. And then when you added Garnett it was like all hell broke loose on offense; in fact he had so much free energy that he singlehandedly put it on himself to give Boston either the first or second best defense in the history of the game (depending on how good you consider the '94 Knicks' defense to be).

With these Big 3, you would have the talent but not the fitting games between the three of them and definitely not the glue that saved Boston in tough times.