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How ludicruous is the idea that Lebron/Bosh/Wade win 45 games?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 1, 2010.

  1. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    This post is about Chad Ford's truehoop article, in which the following tidbit appeared.

    At first glance, this must look like the most absurd thing you can possibly read, much less one that Morey can actually say with a straight face. Now, I do believe Morey's fudging the calculations here, or purposely avoiding certain factors to make things look extra bad. But how big of a stretch is it really?

    There aren't many instances of an NBA team with such a huge disparity between its top 3 players and the supporting cast. Two teams come to mind, the 1997 Houston Rockets, and the 2008 Boston Celtics.

    1997 Houston Rockets (57 wins)

    Star players: Hakeem, Barkley, Drexler
    Significant role players that actually cost money: Kevin Willis, Mario Elie
    Players one can find for vet min: Sam Mack, Matt Maloney, Air Bull, Eddie Johnson, Othella Harrington

    Granted, the Houston trio was much older, but for that one particular year, it's really hard to say they're any worse than the Lebron/Bosh/Wade trio. Especially because of Hakeem's defensive presence that won't be seen in Miami.

    The Rockets basically filled the team with nobodies outside the big 3 and Elie/Willis. In other words, their roster is pretty much the same as what you'd expect from the Heat roster, except for Elie and Willis. But they won 57 games that year, or 12 better than Miami's projected win total by Morey. Even if you go by Pythagorean Record of 54 wins that year, it's still 9 wins better than Miami.

    Now, I love Willis, and I REALLY LOVE Super Mario, but they're not worth 10+ wins combined.

    2008 Boston Celtics

    It's hard to compare a hypothetical Miami team with the Boston team for one major reason: Boston management was AWESOME. You can see traces of Morey's work there, as they picked up significant role players for almost nothing: Rondo, Perkins, Big Baby, Posey, Cassell, etc. Players that while very good, were not known at all at the time.

    While you can say that Miami has no chance of having Rondo next year, was Rondo worth the 21 game difference? Certainly not. But Boston makes it clear that with great scouting and drafting(Moreyesque, you may say), Miami can turn into a powerhouse.

    Conclusion

    To me, the Houston comparison is more apt, if only due to the quantity of scrubs. I don't think Miami has a godly draft record or talent evaluation, so I don't think they'll pick up random good players as easily as Boston. If you go with the Houston comparison, and lower the expectations a bit, and you have basically a 50+ win team. While that is still a lot better than Morey's assertion, it actually doesn't seem as daunting as one may previously believe.

    Now, I will say that one thing Morey obviously left out, is that Miami will have a MLE the year after to sign FAs. And they can buy picks, assuming they trade away theirs for Lebron/Bosh. So really, the 45 win thing is misleading because it's only a one-year scenario. In the long run, unless other teams phase out Riley out of jealousy or whatever, Miami seems better than Houston from a wins perspective.
     
  2. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    If each player gets $16 mil (ie max money) next season, the Heat just committed $48 mil to three players. If the cap for next season is at about $54 million, what kind of quality players do you think Miami can bring in with the $6 million or so left? They would have to sign at least 5 players to the minimum vet salary just to have any semblance of a roster
     
  3. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    Nobody's forcing Miami to sign all 3 of LeBron, Wade, AND Bosh. They would be better served signing 2 of them and using the rest of the cap room to sign significant contributors rather than vet min players.
     
  4. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    So using that argument to get Bosh to eliminate Miami as a destination seems facetious.
     
  5. Depressio

    Depressio Contributing Member

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    The issue is that Wade and James both have to have the ball in their hand to be effective. For lack of a better word, this yields a clusterf$%k on the court. James and Wade's effectiveness is inherently reduced. On the '97 Rockets, Barkley and Olajuwon didn't have to have the ball to be effective; they could play off Drexler just fine. The setup is slightly different as the '97 Rockets didn't have a playing style conflict like James/Wade would.

    That's why I think the dream scenario for ESPN (they'd only have to spooge on one team, then) is bogus. James/Wade cannot be on the same team and, IMO, won't be.

    How long will they have to wait? No one knows. The Heat's draft picks will all have to pan out, and judging from their draft of Beasley who they vetted quite heavily, their drafting skill leaves a bit to be desired. Do these three guys really want to waste away their prime years waiting for quality players to arrive (and mature) via draft or yearly MLE signings?

    Another factor no one is looking at is that Toronto does not want Beasley. They've poo-poo'ed a deal involving him already. Without relinquishing Beasley (and a few other contracts), Miami cannot sign 3 max free agents. Thus, again, a Bosh/Wade/James dream scenario relies on those 3 agreeing to less than max... and that won't happen.

    So you don't have to dig, here's a pertinent quote from the article I linked above:

     
    1 person likes this.
  6. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Nice to see everyone running with a story that might not even be true.

    .
     
  7. TechieOne

    TechieOne Member

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    They can go over the cap by signing players with their bird rights. So I'm sure GM's can work their magic.

    Having said that, those three players in the eastern conference will win more than 45 games even if they play with NBDL players.
     
  8. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    How are they going to sign players that have bird rights who weren't on their roster in the first place? IIRC the team has to have bird rights to the player before said player's contract ends and only at that time can the team go over the cap to re-sign said player.


    I highly doubt the heat are dreaming about re-signing QRich or Carlos Arroyo
     
  9. TechieOne

    TechieOne Member

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    Can't they just sign wade last?
     
  10. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    I highly doubt the heat will be able to do that considering his salary is counted as a caphold at this very moment
     
  11. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    That would allow Wade to make more money than the other two (you think he'd have the gall to do that to Lebron and Bosh), but it wouldn't save them from being bound by the cap with regards to how much money they have to work with in filling out the rest of their roster.

    In fact, it would hurt their ability to sign anyone else. As soon as they pass the cap they can only get vet min players (and their draft picks of course who will be making less). They won't have any exceptions.
     
  12. xiaoqiu

    xiaoqiu Member

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    well, I am not familiar with Rockets in 90's. but look at the Boston on 2008, they had a very very very good supporting cast around the big 3:

    1. Rondo - young promising PG, later 1st round pick.
    2. Perkins - young promising C, later 1st round pick
    3. Glan Davis - early 2nd round pick
    4. PJ Brown - Vet
    5. James Posey - excellent bench player, signed a full MLE after win the champion
    6. Leon Powe - mid 2nd round, but played like a lottery pick, Boston's Landry


    if Lebron/Bosh/Wade end up in Heat, Maimi has to fill up the roster NBDL players.

    And don't forget, the big 3 in Boston really complement each other very well with a top defensive big in KG, a top shooter can play off the ball in Ray Allen and a top offensive threat in PP.
     
  13. Depressio

    Depressio Contributing Member

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    Nope. He'll either have a cap hold or they will have renounced his Bird Rights.
     
  14. m_cable

    m_cable Contributing Member

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    This isn't going to happen. All the recent rumors point away from a Miami three-max team. And consider this bit of info from Larry Coon, the salary cap expert:

    http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-freeagency-100629/cap-room-summary

    So not only would one of the three have to take less than the others, but they'd have to fill out the rest of the entire team with minimum salary players.

    This ain't going to happen. And that's why Morey is a genius. He's able to make this great declarative statement about a three max team without having it proved to the contrary.
     
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  15. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    There is a cap hold for Wade's max salary, while he is unsigned. If the Heat renounce Wade, the cap hold is gone and they lose his bird rights.
     
  16. Nolocke

    Nolocke Member

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    Looks like Miami just got......

    [​IMG]
     
  17. TechieOne

    TechieOne Member

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    Oh ok I stand corrected then. Thanks
     
  18. Thefabman

    Thefabman Member

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    our big 3 in 97 complimented each other as did the big 3 in boston, wade, lebron and bosh do not compliment each other
     
  19. Cannonball

    Cannonball Contributing Member

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    In a regulation NBA game, there are 240 minutes played split amongst all players for a team. Last season, Lebron averaged 39 mpg while Wade and Bosh each averaged 36 mpg. That leaves 129 minutes to be split amongst total scrubs.

    I don't know exactly how it would play out, but it's very possible that a team of 3 superstars and nothing but scrubs could fail to deliver results.
     
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  20. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    They can't sign Wade last to make more money than LeBron or Bosh. There is a cap hold for Wade right now. They only have enough cap space to sign 1 max free agent, unless Miami renounces Wade's bird rights. Then, they can Lebron and Bosh, but they can't sign Wade.
     

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