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How long are you willing to tank to get a superstar?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jan 4, 2011.

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How long are you willing to wait while the team's tanking?

  1. No waiting. I'll take a mediocre team with the possibility of improving through trades/FA

    102 vote(s)
    50.2%
  2. One year. I'll bite the bullet for one year and pray for Tim Duncan

    36 vote(s)
    17.7%
  3. 2-3 years. I'm willing to wait for a decent chance at hitting the jackpot(s) ala OKC

    44 vote(s)
    21.7%
  4. As long as it takes... I have the patience of a Clippers fan

    21 vote(s)
    10.3%
  1. danoman

    danoman Member

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    I like how our team has a reputation of not giving up, also no we dont trade our hard working starters unless we can get a super star in return. On T-Will i like his potential as much as everyone here but the guy needs to learn.. not just the system but every little thing about being a pro on a good team the guy is already talented he just needs to pick up good work habits from his team mates. Why tank? we can always aquire a pick from another team last draft the sixers were selling their no. 2 pick with a bad contract we dont really have to tank.
     
  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Yeah, but not in the same year, and more like every now and then...and, ironically, only PIERCE has a championship, and he needed a lot of help to get there from players drafted in the top 5.

    I just don't get this whole argument.....I mean some teams get lucky, but every one of those teams has drafted again, and they didn't get another quality star, or superstar player.

    There are just no guarantees, sometimes you just get lucky in the draft....Karl Malone was in the teens too, BTW.



    But the Rockets did not even want Gay. Everyone knew that Gay had more upside than Battier, but we already had a very healthy Tmac.....so there is no guarantee that Gay would have developed on a similar level as he is now.

    Either way, I think most would agree that Gay is a far superior player today, but also most would agree that he is not a difference maker like you are wanting....

    No, this is false, the Rockets are not in a bad place, they are just in the not as good as elite level, which you have to go through BTW to get to the elite level....

    They are a few correct trades, or trading of young players for high draft picks from a good turnaround.

    Doesn't mean it will happen, but they are closer than going in the tank, which would reset the entire thing.....

    The only thing we probably agree on, however is that I would like for the team to play the young guys.....a LOT at this point.......find out what you have and don't have going forward.

    DD
     
  3. danoman

    danoman Member

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    maybe one or two months before the season ends, right now its still too early let them watch the game and pick up on good work habbits from our starters at the very least we have good role models in our starters
     
  4. BetterThanEver

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    When you are as bad as the Rockets are, you don't have to tank for a whole year. They are closer to a top draft pick than the top playoff seed. They are 13 games behind the 1st seed and 8 games ahead of the worst team in the league. They are 10 games behind the 2nd seed and 7 games ahead of the 2nd worst team.

    They can tank for the 2-3 months and improve their draft position by 5-10 spots. They could play Battier/Scola/Miller/Hayes hard for the next 2-3 months to move only 1-2 spots for the 7th-8th seed or lose anyway and actually go down the NBA standings by 1-2 spots.
     
  5. meh

    meh Member

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    I think it's easier than you may think to get out of the top of the lottery. Sure, some teams seem to stay in it for ages, because they are just badly run teams, but we got out of the lottery quickly enough with Yao(rookie Yao wasn't even that dominant). Portland got out with Aldridge/Roy. Although they seem to be going nowhere right now. It's not difficult with the right GM to identify players good enough to get you back to .500. It's much more difficult to get that "best player on a championship team" type of player.
     
  6. meh

    meh Member

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    Umm... Dirk was a ninth pick. I simply went with the lottery cut off line. Although there hasn't been any out-of-lottery superstar player picked in this decade.

    T-Mac didn't make the cut because he was drafted in 97. Pierce and Amare because I don't see them as superstars. If you need Ray Allen, KG, and Rondo to solidify your championship caliber team, that's not superstardom.
     
  7. BetterThanEver

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    If we are going with the lottery cutoff line, then it is just like not tanking. Rockets got the 13th pick. A few years before that, they got the 8th pick.
    Rockets look to be drafting at the bottom of the lottery again this year.
     
  8. Tom Bombadillo

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    We are not getting a superstar.

    We need to get a top 5 defense, and execute the Princeton with Kings like precision.

    We need to get a ring Pete Carril style... It will be that much sweeter. Screw these superstars, I don't want the fans that come with the "superstars", to be honest with you.
     
  9. meh

    meh Member

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    I'm pretty sure the trend in NBA basketball would make sure that never happens. You can't make money off of team basketball. You can make tons off of Kobe or Lebron though...
     
  10. meh

    meh Member

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    Sorry that seemed misunderstood by itself. I was responding to the previous post that I made the cutoff line at top 5. I didn't imply that simply being in the lottery is enough.

    In fact, it's almost always NOT enough, as superstar players by and large appear only at the top 5. The odds of getting that star player decreases exponentially with each lower pick. Kobe was more of a special case because of his insistence on going to the Lakers, which really hurt his draft position. Suffice to say it's incredibly unlikely that a superstar-in-waiting would do the same for the Rockets.
     
  11. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Yeah getting out of the top of the lottery isn't too hard to do, but how do make the leap from "crap team" to "contender" overnight? Right now the rockets are hovering near 0.500 because of Kevin Martin, Shane Battier and Luis Scola. Once we start tanking we have to get rid of these guys, and then you have to hope and pray that the guys you get are exponentially better than the players you let go. If they aren't then it'll take longer just to get to the level we are now. In that case you basically just wasted Scola, KM and Battier's prime years for nothing.


    An example of this would be the Blazers when they got Roy/LMA and the Thunder when they got Durant. They already managed to get their franchise players, but even with franchise players in hand they still had to wait a while before the team became decent. Worst case scenario is you enter a Lebron/KG scenerio where the guy you got was so good he made the team playoff worthy almost overnight. Its almost impossible to surround that superstar with a championship cast in that case, as you won't get another lottery pick until your star gets injured or leaves you.
     
  12. BetterThanEver

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    Even if it takes 3 years to be a playoff contender, that's better than the Rocket's current 15 yr plan straddling the line between the lottery and the playoffs. I don't see them being a contender, next year either. It's not like Patterson is going to be Karl Malone and T-Will turns into Kobe.
     
  13. BetterThanEver

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    If the Rockets maintain their winning % and split the next 10 games for 5 wins and 5 losses.

    They will still be in the 9th seed with a 21-23 record.

    If the Rockets spent more time developing T-Will and Patterson, they might end up with only 3 more losses. They would move up 2 spots in the draft past Memphis and Phoenix.

    It looks like Morey will try to "win now" and miss the playoffs with the 9th/10th seed again and a 13th/14th pick.
     
  14. leebigez

    leebigez Member

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    In regards to pierce,dirk,amare whom all were picked 8th or lower, thats the point. Their respective teams got elite talent there. Just because their teams haven't won a title, except pierce with help, he was a staple of playoff teams until he really needed help. He and walker made it to the conf finals a couple of times. He was a staple,amare was and is a staple,dirk is staple. Sure those guys need help, but its easier getting help than finding the staple player.

    In regards to Rudy and I was one of the ones who said it was a good move, but could blow up in the rockets face if they didn't win anything in 3 years, it had nothing really to do with Tracy. Tracy playing the swing had 0 to do with drafting Rudy. Now, I know he wasn't their player and I remember you and I going back and forth about JJ and brewer because Rudy was projected as a top 5 player, but their alternative was Thabo. There is no way on any board thabo ranked ahead of rudy. I know its water under the bridge, but if the scouts or whomever said since we cant get roy, thabo is the next best player, then that was wrong.

    Personally, I think they're in a bad spot. Not because they have bloated contracts like philly, but they have too many of the same gusy at the same positions and they don't have 1 player who you can say can be a 3 time all star. If a team doesn't have a superstar, they have to at least have a couple of guys pushing all star status. If you look at a recent team whom I kinda lump into the same category as the rockets are the pre injury arenas injury wizards. Their run wasn't long if you call it a run, but are the rockets 3 best players any better than their 3 best players at the time? I say thats debateable. A more current team the probably can mimick are the hawks. Problem is the hawks have some guys who are really good right now (smith and horford) who are still young and getting better by leaps and bounds. The rockets don't have anyone with the talent ceiling of horford or smith on their roster.
     
  15. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Pierce and Amare aren't superstars? Really? So double digit all star games, 5+ All NBA appearances, probable HOF careers, when it's all said and done doesn't make you a superstar?

    Interesting. Well they're both way better than any rocket of the past decade...in fact better than any Rocket since No. 34.
     
  16. meh

    meh Member

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    Really now, you believe Pierce and Amare are both better than Yao and T-Mac at their peak...

    Well, I can only say we have to agree to disagree. We obviously don't see eye to eye on just how good these players are.
     
  17. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Not only are they arguably better at their peak, but, far more important for your franchise their peak is much, much longer.

    How many years did Paul Pierce have the "never lead his team out of the first round-tag" that will be McGrady's epitaph? Oh...that's right...NEVER... because he took them to the ECF's his first time out. And guess what, he's now a ring and a couple of finals...while McGrady is a journeyman role player. But otherwise, good comparison.

    As for Yao....seriously? I mean, my god, Amare is not only better than Yao, but he's played in 127 regular season games since the beginning of last year, to Yao's 5.

    You think that shouldn't be counted when determining who's a superstar or who had a better career? :confused:
     
  18. meh

    meh Member

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    If they are only "arguably" better than T-Mac/Yao at their peaks, then they would not have been able to lead the Rockets to past the first round during the past few years.

    Which makes them not superstars. Because 2 superstars don't lead their teams to first round exits. At least not real ones.
     
  19. Hball

    Hball Member

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    I think the best option would be to try and acquire as many draft picks as posssible now and future picks ala portland trail blazers, that's why the were able to rebuild within a 2-3 year span getting roy, Aldridge and then greg oden the following year.

    Clear as much cap space as possible getting rid of the longterm contracts to give us more flexibilty in free agency and to also atleast have a chance at signing a legit franchise player outright like howard and cp3 when their available.

    We need to get rid of the veterans scola, martin, battier and miller because their going to keep us around .500 which will make it hard to improve through the draft and free-agency with their contracts, it will also give younger players with more upside a chance to develop full-time.

    Were in a bad situation because Morey is building the team backwards, your suppose to get the franchise players first then build a supporting cast, that's why were a .500 ball club I know it isn't his fault due to the injuries to yao and t-mac but that's why it's time to start over now to give to give us oppurtunities to acquire one through draft or free-agency and not just trade.

    In which I don't expect Morey and Adelman to choose this route because their jobs may be at risk being a bottom team, so will most likely be a .500 team for the next five years using his moneyball tactics... :(
     
  20. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    So let me get this straight, you're saying that Paul Pierce and Tracy McGrady have similar records of post-season success?

    Because I was gracious enough to have said "arguably" to you when you're laughably trying to compare two washed-up has-beens with an MVP candidate and a future HOF'r working on his second title?

    Just plain silly.
     

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