He'll be a 20-10 guy almost right away. Although, he will probably be a step down from the truely elite, duncan, lebron, kobe class of player.
It's really hard to forecast the ceilings of PF's in the NBA. The best PF's in the NBA currently are almost all physical specimens that might be once in a generation. A 7-footer with a guard's shooting touch in Dirk, three 6"11-7ft guys with lanky bodies just absolutely built for the game in KG Bosh and Amare, another 7-ft big man with a soft touch in Gasol. It's quite clear by default that Griffin has no shot at being as good as those guys. But the next tier? Guys like Jefferson, Boozer, Horford, West? It's hard to say. Michael Beasley played against basically the same competition, left one year earlier than Griffin (they are the same high school class), and look at where his ceiling has fallen to now. I think Griffin is the safest pick in the class, but judging by how weak this class is overall, I think it is fairly damning to admit that he almost certainly will not be the best player of this draft. A starter to boot, but an all-star? I'd say the odds are 70-30 against it.
I think Boozer/Amare is probably the best comparison, but he is going to need to be able to develop a mid range game like those two have. If he does that there is no question he will be one of the best Power Forwards in the game within 4 years.
Depends how much UNC's defense keys on him. If they are smart, Roy Williams will make other players beat them. They have enough athletes to make it very difficult for Griffin to get the ball and do anything. I think UNC will win convincingly.
I'll have to disagree with you. I don't watch NCAA so I have no idea what Griffin is capable of but Horford is not just an offensive rebound/putback clone. He's also not a real defensive big guy either, since he's undersized at C (where he's being played right now by the Hawks). Horford IMHO is like Elton Brand with more athletecism, but without the jumpshot Eb has. Basically, Horford has an extremely advanced offensive skillset and a back to the basket game for a sophomore big man and lumping him as the same type of player as Oden is a mistake IMHO. His being a non-factor of the Atlanta's offense is more due to the absence of a true playmaker more than anything else. Bibby has always been a score-first pg, and coupled with other wing players on the team Horford kinda' gets left out of the offensive mix (as sometimes seen with our very own Yao Ming).
Griffin reminds me of Mail Man, without the vicious elbows. in college, the Mail Mail was an athletic muscular ~ 260 lb among boys. Coming out of college, his repetoire didn't include an outside game, and was an atrocious FT shooter, worse than Shaq. Griffith, most probably, will develop a mid-range game.
I like pretty much everything about his game. Great body, athleticism, footwork, touch, instincts. He showed an ability to face up and beat guys off the dribble as well. Boozer never really showed a jumper in college either. Griffin's game is impressive and refined enough that I'm confident he will be able to add a midrange shot to his game.
I probably shouldn't even comment, since I've seen exactly one Blake Griffin game. He looks to me to be a cross between Amare Stoudamire (great athleticism and quickness) and Carlos Boozer (strength and rebounding), but without the jump shot. His defense is comparable to those two -- in other words, not really there.
What about post offense/his back to the basket game? I'm just worried that if he doesn't have a jumpshot and doesn't have a low post game then he won't be able to score. He'll probably go to a scrubby team with a scrubby pg so I doubt anyone's gonna be able to set him up for his alley-oops and dunks, so he'll have to create for majority of his pts. Add to that his so-so defense and his impact as a number 1 pick might be lessened even more.
Blake Griffins size and athleticism will make him a force in the NBA, he posseses great ball handling ability while having a great ability to finish inside. he already has 33 double doubles this year and will definatly be a force in the nba
What is it about this guy that is so freaking annoying ? And i'm not just talking about the fact he is a Sooner.
Kevin Pelton analyzes Blake Griffin's last game as a college player in another Every Play Counts segment: http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=629 He summarizes at the end: [rquoter] Griffin's gaudy scoring and rebounding totals are legitimate, and surely will translate to the NBA level, but they are not enough. As plus-minus analysis has tended to show us, these "intangibles" that don't show up in the box score can be crucially important to teams. To achieve the greatness predicted for him, Griffin will have to develop the rest of his game. Fortunately, the weaknesses that showed up in paying close attention to Griffin's performance are ones that can be improved upon. I think he's got the ability to become a credible screener and at least average as a help and pick-and-roll defender. Surely, whichever team ends up landing the top pick in next month's NBA Draft Lottery will be hoping for just that result.[/rquoter] Basically, his defense needs work.
Agreed but I think his defense, potential to evolve into a solid defender and "coachability" is much better than Beasley's was at this stage, for instance.
I don't like how he shoots the fadeaway jumpshot, with too much fade and not good balance...although that's only from the video.
I like the Boozer and McDyess comparisons. Of course, he'll have to work for it, but people seem to give him credit for a good work ethic, so seems like he'll get there
I think he'll be better than Beasley, better than Love, ultimately more complete than Oden, but not as good as a Kevin Durant...if comparing to recent younger players. I think the fit is an interesting question, too. Curious as to which of the lottery teams would really be the best fit. The Nets would be a pretty good fit, if they won the lottery: Harris, Carter, [ ], Griffin, Lopez. The Knicks would just be fun to watch. if Charlotte did the impossible and won the lottery they could be a real solid team in the East next year. I'm focusing on Eastern conference teams since we have enough great PF's here in the West. Obviously, a Grizzlies team with Conley, Mayo, Gay, Griffin and Gasol as the starting five...well, that could be pretty good. And whether they could keep all their young players or not aside, Westbrook, Durant, Green and Griffin would make quite a foursome...though, having 3 forwards in that group isn't enormously helpful.
I think the key for him is to play alongside a stud PG. However, he should be pretty good regardless but PF's are so hard to predict. I don't think anybody predicted Boozer would turn out to be as good as he is being picked 34th overall in the 2nd round. Al jefferson was picked 15th. David west was picked 18th and Zach Randolph at 19th. These guys are all bonafide 20/10 players with the exception of West who's a couple boards short. I can also name a number of players picked much higher but didn't pan out but that list is never ending.
A thicker, 21st century version of Xavier McDaniel. I would say Buck Williams, but he's more coordinated than that. The X-Man was pretty darned good in his prime, so that would be a very solid career.
