Right, now post the same chart for Milwaukee and Phoenix in 2021. Junk science fads can persist in corporate culture, that doesn't make them right. they don't win championships. But also, guys, lets clarify a few things here. Morey-ball is not about the value of the 3 pointer or the value of the shot at the rim. Getting to the basket has been the mantra of every coach since basketball existed. Rudy T. was coaching high-volume 3 pt shooting in his inside-outside scheme at a time when Morey was jerking-off in business school. People who know Rudy will tell you that he doesn't know what a spreadsheet is. These things were all known to traditionalist coaches long before Morey. Morey-ball is this crazy notion that some number crunching proves that you can eliminate all nuance and variety in your offense, adjustments to defense, etc. and you should run an algorithm-based offense with limited options. This led to Harden looking like a dear in the headlights in 2017 when Pop was dropping his bigs and daring him shoot from midrange. Screeeech!! the algorithm was being destroyed by a folksy 70-year old granpa. Or the 0-27 debacle. Screeeech! Another algorithm failure... That's the BS Morey-ball fraud that I hate. So let's not argue from position of misunderstanding. [A more detailed note on the 3 pointer for those who are interested. It is true that the 3-ball volumes now are much higher than what even Rudy T. was preaching in the 90s. There are several factors at play none of which have anything with some unique insights from bogus spreadsheets. 1. The illegal defense rule changes is absolutely the number 1 reason. 20 years ago you couldn't crowd the opposing top creators the way the rules allow now (unless you were George Karl and played border-line illegal D all the time). So you need a credible shooting threat to create space for your top weapons. That's plain obvious to every good basketball coach and you don't need junk science to realize that. The game evolved due to the rule changes and coaches adapted -- no unique insight was provided by bogus number crunching. 2. A secondary reason: skill development in youth coming to the league mirrors the league superstars, who are idolized by the youth. In the 90s kids wanted to be like MJ, they didn't idolize Kenny Smith and Matt Bullard. Then we had the crossover generation, copying Iverson, Stevie etc... Since Steph emerged as a kid favorite, you have all these kids trying to emulate him and they are now in the league shooting like crazy. Coaches in the 90s and 00s didnt have so much shooting talent at their disposal, or they would have utilized it more. plain and simple. 3. Most coaches are control freaks and many instinctively dislike the volatility of the 3 pointer. That's a weakness, a good coach should use the best weapons at their disposal and if that's a volatile 3pt shot, he needs to use it. But again, this could easily be fixed by just change in coaching style, no need for junk science...]
A few more thoughts on the game evolution. Basically in the last 20 years NBA became more like international basketball. You know how Shaq says that all the -vich-es are great shooters? That's because in international basketball you had to be able to shoot, since there were no illegal D rules. In the NBA we had guys like Dennis Rodman who never-ever took a shot (if you youngsters think Ben Simmons doesn't shoot, you should have seen Rodman), yet you had to send a defender to him if you didn't want to get called for illegal D. Many coaches didn't like that. "Why do I have to send a guy to Rodman, that's completely illogical rule from basketball perspective?' However, David Stern's view was that the league needed to highlight it's star players, for marketing, and the rules needed to provided them with spacing to shine. Eventually things changed and now you need shooting to provide the spacing. It's just the geometry of the court, fundamental Xs and Os. Daryl Morey and spreadsheets have nothing to do with this.
This is just untrue. There's a lot I disagree with in both of your posts, I don't really feel like arguing about most of it, but this one is just factually incorrect. Look at the number of paint/3s taken (they call this MoreyRate for a reason) over the last 25 years, look at how it changed after the illegal defense rule change (not much), and then look at how much it changed after the rockets started playing Morey Ball. It went from like 49% to 54% in the 10 years following the rule change, then the rockets started to play at 70%-80% moreyrate, and now the league average is 70%. You can criticize him for taking it too far, but you can't deny his enormous influence on the shot profile and offensive approach of the entire league.
So, because they got one ring before KD came, means that they definitely 100% couldn't have won more if they didn't have KD? Come on, man. This logic is just bad. Also, it's not like KD was only reliable as a midrange scorer, a la Derozan. KD can shoot the 3 with the best of them. Jimmy Butler and the Heat lucked into a Finals berth. If they were really that good, the Heat wouldn't have been swept in the first round, this year. Chris Paul also lucked into a Finals berth, considering either the best or second-best player on every single team PHX faced, had an injury. Even Giannis wasn't certain to play until like, hours before game 1. Middleton is good at the midrange, sure. But if you watched most of the games he's played, both good and bad, he's incredibly inconsistent. Also, hello? They have Giannis. It's not like Middleton carried the Bucks to the Finals. Speaking of carrying, it's ironic that Durant forced OT in GM7 of that Bucks series due to his shot being counted as a midrange. If he shot a legitimate 3, it would have been Nets-Suns. Point is, as quick as you are about discounting "Moreyball" or saying how midrange >>>, don't act like the only reason the Suns and Bucks were the last two teams, was solely due to the midrange. You're leaving a LOT of details out.
100...people should go look up gasol, no title for lakers without him. straight up star. And people can go look up all their rookie stats like giannis, terrible efficiency points, everything. Even the best like kd, lebron, kobe came out very, very ineffeciient and ineffective but showed flashes of what they could be. Sengung has definitely shown us some flashes, but from Summer League MVPs of old,we know the SL can't be fully trusted. We also know that stone so far should be trusted and I'm excited to see him go. As mentioned, I believe his experience as being the turkish MVP should prepare him a whole lot more and he did look way more seasoned than anyone in the SL.
@NewAge First of all I appreciate the thought out long post and detail...I'm one to talk, hats off. 2nd, I disagree. I think its a massive over simplfication for what morey was doing. He was given a budget by les, who only paid tax once, under par for the other guys trying to win. And Fertitta, who never would pay and just lie abotu it. But he had to get best bang for buck and make it work bc he was on a budget, he had to think what was the most efficient ways of scoring. Like he said for paul or harden, if they have an open mid range they can take it. They just realized that they aren't the most talented team bc htey don't spend the most on talent and they won't comepte in that way, so they are gong to find a niche made for warriors in that switch all defense and just run it to the ground.... How did we do in the 'gimmick" consistently among the no 1 teams, took them to game 7 without paul had them on the brinks while the rest of the league was stepping aside, and hten began to dismantle the team that offseason with non headliner moves that people who get basketball from ESPN think are fine(ignoring ALL bird rights, trading picks, trading rotation players, cutting staff, depths and margins that championship teams will swallow). Furthermore we adjusted with paul where we were running heavy PnR with Capela lob city. Then with westbrook( a trade tilman put through) to go totally iso, we didn't do bad. but injuries and more so depth and cheaping out elsewhere just cut the quality of the team. https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/10/16/21519593/daryl-morey-houston-rockets-luxury-tax-resign I think people have a gross misunderstanding of what morey's mandate and power is and how that changes with an owner allowing it vs one saying cut at all cost and let my son follow you. Its akin to getting mad a manager at your favorite restaurant when a new owner came in and changed the budget to cheap on quality. And that was the one thing that Morey never really had. According to the cap numbers at Spotrac, which go back to the 2010-11 season, the Rockets barely went over the luxury tax (just $3.65 million over) in their one season (2015-16) as a taxpayer. The Warriors spent $49.63 million in penalties over the last five seasons, while even the small-market Thunder spent $33.73 million. There was no excuse for Houston to not open up the checkbook. This is a franchise located in the fourth-biggest metro area in the U.S. that has had a superstar in the prime of his career. Alexander sat on his hands while Houston’s rivals went all in, counting on Morey’s ability to use advanced statistics to turn water into wine This refusal to spend money became farcical once Alexander sold the team to Tilman Fertitta in 2017. Fertitta spent so much money ($2.2 billion) to purchase the Rockets that he may not have had the liquidity to go into the red to build a title contender. Houston was a laughingstock around the league for the amount of juggling it had to do to stay under the tax. The best example came at the trade deadline last season, when Morey used a future first-round pick to shed the salaries of Brandon Knight and Marquese Chriss. There was no basketball reason for the move. It was just done to cut costs. It’s not that Knight and Chriss would have helped the Rockets. But there were certainly a lot of better things that Morey could have used that pick for. Houston also spent that season in a bizarre staring contest with Danuel House Jr. House is the kind of diamond in the rough that Morey routinely uncovered in Houston, an undrafted free agent on a two-way contract who would become a starting-caliber wing. The problem was that players on those deals can spend only 45 days with the NBA team during the season before their contracts have to be converted. Money in Houston was so tight that Morey had to send House back to the G League when he wouldn’t sign a below-market long-term deal. He replaced House with two players he signed off the street (Gerald Green and Kenneth Faried) before bringing him back right before the playoffs. It’s not like House was asking for the world. He signed a three-year, $11 million contract in the offseason. But even that was more than Morey could offer at the time. Houston’s limited financial flexibility became an even bigger issue last season after the trade for Westbrook. With the team’s two best players costing a combined $76.7 million, it became almost impossible for Morey to fill out the roster while staying under the luxury tax. Morey and head coach Mike D’Antoni had to conjure up production from players other teams didn’t want. Jeff Green went from being cut by the Jazz to being a crucial piece of the Rockets’ small-ball attack in the playoffs. It was the same story with Austin Rivers, who had been on three teams in five seasons before landing in Houston, and Ben McLemore, who had one foot out of the NBA before the Rockets turned him into a 3-point sniper. All were more valuable in Houston than anywhere else in the league because Morey identified what they could do well and put them in roles that didn’t ask them to do much else. So think of that, We ignored Ariza...suns signed him...Suns flipped him to Kelly oubre, then took kelly oubre and rubio to flip to Chris Paul who our owner leaked was teh worst contract in all of sports....they took a swing without hte guarantee and went to the finals. KEEPING ASSETS ALIVE, all these nba econoimcs mechanisms that we just ignored to prioritize...savings! Those moves help Morey 0, not even for financial flexiblity they are just tax savings to one man...maybe tahts why HArden, Morey, Tad brown ALL left money and home on the table to goto a frnachise that won't throw them under teh bus and lie about it...thats what people don't get it, this whole rep changing moves we're doing now understone is not cleaning up morey's mess, its them realizing no one will work with tillman who has other options. That coach's agent, MDA's that Tilman publicly got lying on is one of the most well connected guys in the league. The league is small, tilman ruined our rep in 3 years and people here talking abotu be loyal to him, not the rockets...:/https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id...amn-turmoil-unsettling-vibe-surrounds-rockets Or how about bucks? Giannis was mvp like harden, but lost in the semis 1-4...looked helpless in the playoffs with defense, and couldn't hit a free throw...nah but the fans there didn't start screaming we wont win and its 'proven' don't go all in...don't pay for a 30 year old holiday on max, don't pay max for middleton, dont get an old pj tucker for a first rounder...36 minutes an 0 ponts...why do all these coaches in winning teams keep playing pj close to 40 minutes when he has 0 points all too often? its almost like he contributes more than the box score! but yea...no one was counting savings for Marc Larsy...they won a ring or Warriors...their team invested big. They went from non destination oakland, they inveted in facilities, paid tax, and treated it like a start up. thinking long term and brand building and now there are warriors fans lal over the world. More so even in an injured year last year, even as they would struggle to 'guarantee' a finals, they sitll paid tax last year heavy amount so that Fertitta comically Tweeted it!...for kelly oubre, obviously not worth it, but warriors fans don't act like some on here and count blessings for Joe Lacob...they want the team to win, and this is ab illionaire boys league, not the budget league. You gotta take a swing, any year magic can happen unless you convince yourslef magic doesnt happen and you forget clutch city.
that’s interesting, where is the data from? It kinda supports what I am saying but not completely. The league cannot turn on a dime when there is a rule change you need an adjustment period. For 10 years, however, I would expect it to be 60-65%, which is healthy as a ballpark. The algorithmic BS, going to 75-80%, is exactly what I am saying is fraud - you can’t win in the playoffs with this ****, generally. You need variety and nuance. I wonder why the adjustment to a healthy 60-65% didn’t happen as fast. 49–>54% is indeed lower than what I would have thought, for 10 years. These were the Kobe/McGrady years, these guys could still get their shots off. KG’s face-off midrange… My guess is the need for spacing was not perceived as acute when you had elite shot-makers making tough shots every night, so the adjustment was slower than what I would expect.
and i'd imagine its going to continue to evolve and the league style will too. many players say it comes full circle that said, you're whole morey is a fraud is basically based on you feeling it should be 65 percent of our offense rather then 75 while the whole league has risen to match that? I do agree that the idea that it should be a forumla decided and not adjusted based on what the defense and match up is, but still its a simplfication and over indcment on morey and then not considering the context that he was working for two bosses on a budget which got smaller to hte point where he had to give up good assets and even comparmentalize skills by signing minimum specialist and not deviating for the role...that was more of a necesseity based on his budget to optimize rather than indicment that he didn't want flexibility. theres a few dominos before the ones you mentioned
I hate these comparison threads that are way too early. There is no way to know what he is going to be or what he could be at this point. I think it is fair to say he doesn't look like a bust so far, that is for sure.
He is leading all rookies in rebs/game, blocks/game, 3rd in free throw attempts/game. Second in assists/game for centers after Mobley, 2.8 vs 3.0. 32nd in minutes per game.
I just rewatch the highlights. Every time when Jaygup or another guard passes the ball to Sengun, it would result in Sengun scoring or Sengun setting a teammate up to score. Too bad our guards are too dumb to realize that
