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How does the math work on keeping these guys?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Will, Jan 28, 2025.

  1. xaos

    xaos Member

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    Hilarious to say that after Green just signed a non-max contract when he could've bet on himself this offseason. Doesn't get dumber than this folks.
     
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  2. Hippieloser

    Hippieloser Member

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    Landry's for dinner again. :(
     
  3. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    How the math works...

     
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  4. MacNYao

    MacNYao Member

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    I have enough confidence in Stone to be creative and find a way. Though I dont have much confidence in Tillman willing to spend.

    These boys have to prove they can contend as they grow and reach full potential.
     
  5. pmac

    pmac Member

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    I think Stone said he could pay all the young guys but didn't necessarily say pay the young guys AND the vets.

    So, I think there will come a time soon that Stone will have to make a decision between vets and some of the young guys. If we pay Tari and Jabari, I don't think we can pay Cam unless we move off Brooks. Same thing with Reed/Jalen/Amen and FVV.

    But, it's really not a big problem. Having too many good players is a great problem to have. Stone will be happy to move off FVV and Brooks if our young guys have played them off the floor.
     
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  6. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    One possibility with amen also is he gets 30% and not 25% on his rookie extension. A lot of rookie extensions have supermax language, and making all nba is way easier now with the 65 game rule.
     
  7. Exiled

    Exiled Member

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    trade Green for Ausar, that will open massive room for leverage ,opportunities and flexibility
     
  8. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    You would be correct.

    Plus neither one of them is even a $20M per year player if we are being 10000% frank.
     
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  9. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Jabari is easily worth more than 20M look at the Rox def rating dropping when he got injured.

    He only get 9 attempts a night if he went to other teams and got more attempts his ppg would be higher too its just basic math.
     
  10. karakedi

    karakedi Member

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    we cant before ausar hit 3s with %35+
     
  11. conquistador#11

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    Math checks out
     
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  12. theDude

    theDude Member
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    cos(x/1) * cos(x/3) * cos(x/5) * ... = (1/2) * (sin(x) + sin(3x)/3 + sin(5x)/5 + ...)
    Therefore,
    ∫_{0}^{π/2} x * cos(x/1) * cos(x/3) * cos(x/5) * ... dx
    = (1/2)^∞ * ∫_{0}^{π/2} x * (sin(x) + sin(3x)/3 + sin(5x)/5 + ...) dx

    = (1/2)^∞ * [(-x*cos(x))/1 + (1/3)*x*cos(3x) - (1/5)*x*cos(5x) + ...]_{0}^{π/2}

    = (1/2)^∞ * [(-π/2)*cos(π/2)/1 + (1/3)*(π/2)*cos(3*(π/2)) - (1/5)*(π/2)*cos(5*(π/2)) + ...]

    = (1/2)^∞ * [(π/2)/3 - (π/2)/5 + (π/2)/7 - ...]

    = (1/2)^∞ * π/4 * [1/1 - 1/3 + 1/5 - ...]

    ..so we probably won’t be able to offer Reed a max contract.
     
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  13. xiki

    xiki Member

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    The really realistic question IMO.

    Bring back FVV. On a realistic deal. 3/75? Dunno, but who can actually pay him?

    Find right guys under contract to mix in. Cam J in BarkLay. Safer pay than his contract or worse for Bari.

    When Rox actually move on from their CoreExpirings, replace with real cheap youth and/or real cheap latter vets. The savings there might pay for Tari?

    Recall Pat Williams from Basketball Heaven and have him voodoo Suns into Lotto and Top Two pick. That would help.
     
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  14. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    1d7859c2-fac5-4dc6-9f19-b07ced6651c6_text.gif
     
  15. PatBev

    PatBev Member
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    You trade Tari for Ausar and convince the twins to take team friendly deals to play together
     
  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  17. TimDuncanDonaut

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    Fourier series?

    if Rafael, Patrick and Eli are in the war room, I'll put money on Eli as the math guy. :D:D
     
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  18. HI Mana

    HI Mana Member

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    Luxury tax is set at 121.5% of cap, first apron at 126.7%, and second apron at 134.4%. I agree that going over the 2nd apron is extremely punitive, and I'm going to treat that as a hard cap for the Rockets.

    The first real decision they have is in the summer of 2026 - 2027, when Tari and Jabari are due new contracts. Assuming that the Rockets will carry a full roster, and backfill with 2nd-year minimum salary veterans that count as 1.44% of the cap, their commitments look like this:

    Green: 21.16%
    Sengun: 21%
    Brooks: 11.75%
    Thompson: 7.21%
    Sheppard: 6.53%
    Whitmore: 3.21%
    ~#18 pick in the 2025 NBA draft: 2.46%
    Jabari: ??
    Tari: ???
    Six minimum contracts: 8.

    Total, 81.96%, meaning you have around 39.5% cap ($67M) and still not pay luxury tax. Let's assume Bari and Tari each get a 15% cap contract (for reference, that is 4years/$94M for this season), comparable to Nic Claxton and Patrick Williams for rookies signing their first big extensions.

    2027 - 2028 is going to be the summer of hard cuts. The cap table looks as follows, assuming an Amen rookie max (but not a designated rookie max).

    Thompson: 25%
    Green: 20% (he technically has an opt-out, but I think most scenarios I've run, he makes more by opting in and extending)
    Sengun: 19.25%
    Sheppard: 7.5%
    Brooklyn 2027 pick (assumed ~#10): 4.67%
    Phoenix 2027 pick (assumed ~#15): 3.61%
    2025 pick (3rd year): 2.82%
    Five minimum contracts: 7.2%

    Total, 90.05%, meaning you now have just 44.33% cap below the second apron for Bari, Tari, and Whitmore. If you hypothetically signed Bari/Tari to a total of 30% cap previously, you're already a guaranteed luxury tax team, and you're going to have to decide how much you're willing to pay for Whitmore. Sheppard + the three first rounders is around 18% of the cap; that seems like a very attractive salary slot where you can get a final piece like Denver with KCP or Aaron Gordon. This team will be expensive, likely $490M out of pocket when including the luxury tax.

    2028 - 2029, the team will be almost unrecognizable, and hopefully by Y7 of Jalen/Sengun, we'll know who's worth keeping. Regardless, if we really believe in the core 7:

    Green: 30% (max extension)
    Thompson: 24.5%
    Sengun: 18.9%
    Bari/Tari/Whitmore: ~45%
    Eight minimum contracts: 11.52%

    Total: 129.96%, before any Reed Sheppard extension, and dumping all the first rounders for zero salary. Assuming Reed gets the same ~15% deal that the 4 before him got, you're blasting way beyond the second apron by almost 10%, roughly equivalent to the current situation that Minnesota is in. So is it doable? Yes, but the reality is that it will be so expensive ($700M+ in team salary when factoring in the luxury tax), that it seems unlikely.
     
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  19. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    The cap rises by 10% each year so shouldnt the salaries of Jalen and Sengun etc go down by 10% each year?
     
  20. pmac

    pmac Member

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    Why
     

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