I picked Clips in 6 for matchup reasons. I'm sticking to it. I don't think Paul's return will automatically doom us, though. It's basically a brand new series and I don't quite see us recapturing the HCA without some sort of huge change to our execution.
Depends on the Clippers. If they play at their best, we won't be able to keep up. There's a decent chance they won't. And there's no shame in winning that way. It happens in tennis all the time. You win because the other guy couldn't maintain his level of play after the first 2 sets.
If I'm being honest, I think the Clippers win in 6. It's not even about Paul's availability or LA being a tough matchup. The Rockets just haven't looked very good through 7 playoff games. Game 1 vs Dallas was probably the closest they came to playing an overall great game and even that one had their typical disastrous 2nd quarter.
I had Clips in 5 before knowing Paul would miss 2 games. If Paul comes back tonight, they'll will the next 3. Rockets haven't been able to do what they need to: Layups, 3s, and FTS. Our bigs missed so many easy, close range shots, its ridiculous. We are only shooting 16/59 (27%) on 3s, which is supposed to be this teams offense. FTs (56/88 64%) especially Howard and Smith have been atrocious. Both combined are 16/40 (40%), they need to bring that up to 50+%.
Also, our defense stinks (played much better in 2nd half of game 2). Giving up 117 and 109 at home without Paul is terrible. Outside of first quarters, we haven't been able to play consistently on both ends.
If/when Paul comes back there's a strong chance he'll reaggravate that hamstring. Because of that I give us a good shot, say 65%. But there's a slim chance he can return to form, in that case I give us about a 45% chance to win in 7. If Paul was healthy we'd be done in 6 IMO. If Paul was healthy and we had DMo & Beverley I believe it would come down to game 7 (50-50).
Voted not sure 50/50 all because of the questions surrounding Paul's health. If he comes back healthy and effective I don't think we can beat them 3 more times.
I voted all but certain we'll advance. I used to always stress myself out in years past being cautiously optimistic. This year I decided to go all in. Rockets in 6 or 7!
I always tend to be cautiously optimistic. If they put first half game 1 with second half game 2 I have no doubt they can win.
Cautiously optimistic. If Paul plays tonight then I think the best chance to steal a game in LA would be game 4. Not saying we automatically lose when he plays but whatever game he comes back will be the healthiest game he plays all series. His injury isn't going away anytime this season and this will be the most rest he gets.
The next 2 games in LA should be viewed like elimination games by the Rockets. The Clippers core has played together longer than the Rockets players. Since Beverly and Motiejunas are out, only Howard and Harden have played together for more than this season. Chemistry is still questionable. Certainly there have been flashes of brilliance, but still a work in progress. The Clippers had a confidence just from that edge. Their confidence increased from winning the series with the Spurs. Then it increased further by winning Game 1 in this series without Paul. The Rockets didn't recognize that the Spurs series had that effect. I think they assumed it took a lot out of them; then with no Paul? The Clippers honestly believe and are confident they can play with the Rockets with or without Paul. And the trend and flow of both games so far affirm their feeling. Because of this lack of cohesiveness that comes from playing together the Rockets crack at certain times -- untimely turnovers (many unforced) and lack of a "group" mind. FT shooting is, obviously, a weakness. Practicing at this juncture of the season doesn't generally help because in the case of the bigs, it is a mechanical defect (poor form) that has to be singled out during the offseason to modify. It's sort of like a golfer making a change in his swing. Muscle memory and habit don't change so quickly. I think the general consensus is that the best opportunity of winning on the road during the first home stand of an opponent is the first game. And normally, that is probably true. In this instance, I think the next 2 games will be difficult. The Clippers played the Rockets tough even in Game 2 when their offense went stagnant due to lack of ball and player movement. They will get the equivalent of a "second wind" on their home court. The Rockets "philosophy" of 3-point shooting is flawed. Their "shooters" are too streaky across the board. If any one of the players, considered 3-point shooters, could stay more consistently at their average on a game-to-game basis, then the 3-point theory is good. The Rockets just aren't consistent enough. And they practice these shots all year long. If they had the equivalent of a couple of Ray Allens you'd see defenses having to scramble more. As it is, they can fudge a bit. Even Terry, the great "Rocket killer," has been quite streaky this season. I think any basketball player should consider a mid-range jump shot as part of being a complete player. Players like Paul have that shot and it can be a real killer, because that area of the court is so often a "no man's land" for defenses. I think it is absurd to suggest that the team should be "blown up" if they lose this series. They don't lack talent so much as they lack a little better chemistry/cohesiveness, cutting down on unforced turnovers, and better FT shooting, which may or may not be possible even if concentrated on during the offseason. Shaq never got very good at it. Jones is probably our best big at FT shooting since Motiejunas is out, but he has been very streaky in the playoffs and seems to disappear for long stretches. I've noted all season long he needs to learn to finish stronger around the basket. We all keep our fingers crossed that the stars will align just right and the Rockets can somehow serpentine to a championship this season. Mostly likely the Rockets come back down 3-1 if they lose the game tonight. If the series ends up going to a game 7 I'd give the Rockets a 60% chance of winning.
"All but certain we're going to advance" I think CP will either be out the entire series or be very limited. If the Rockets win tonight I say the Rocket's will win 4 in a row to close out the series in 5 games.
as long as they take atleast 1 of the 2 games. either tonight or sunday, it doesn't matter. either 2-2 or 3-1 is a good trip
First, for a team that often lacks focus, playing on the road as underdogs, may be the best thing. Counter that with the fact that the Clippers are a very good team, and we have at best, a 50-50 chance to steal a game. For a talented Rockets that it is still flawed, you cannot ask for much more than that.
I really think this is going to be a F U game from Harden. Barnes talking ***** to his mom was no a good idea. That should lean the series in the Rockets favor.
I said it before the series started, and I'm sticking to it. Rockets in 7 games. This is going to continue to be a brutal series for us. But we're going to win and grow from it. We are better than a lot of Houston fans are giving us credit for. The Clippers played the same number of games in the west as we did, and we have the same winning percentage. Our regular season series is tied at 2-2. They have as many match up problems as we do, honestly. This is a tight match up. People put way too much emphasis on home court advantage. Losing a game on your home court doesn't curse you to lose the series. It's just a loss, whether you got it at home or away. And right now, the series is right on course for what the regular season series predicted, 50/50. I don't know if it's refreshing or annoying that Clutchfans has gone from super-homerism to super-pessimism. On one hand, I can tell people are putting a lot of fair thought into their own predictions of the series. On the other hand, I think there is a bit of anti-bias going on here. If it's ever 50/50 against a team, then you should "know" that your home team is going to pull out a win. I know a lot of people have read the hand we've been dealt so far and have assumed we're going to lose. But I've seen way too many signs so far that tells me that we're taking it in 7. Go Rockets!
I put cautiously optimistic. This team is capable of beating the Clippers with or without Paul, provided they bring 100% effort for all four quarters. I want to see the same intensity that was shown in the 4th quarter from game 2 from here on out. Get the W tonight boys!
