I largely agree, Deckard. (Obviously.) Couple points of order: 1. As far as I'm concerned I won't feel like a chump at all if HRC campaigns her head off for Barack. I expect her to, she promised she would, it's her job and she has no choice. If she doesn't, she'll be vilified even by many of her closest allies from the campaign. That's not to say she won't deserve credit for doing all that; of course she will. But it's not a favor. It's her job as one of the leaders of the party and, while I won't belabor this after her speech tomorrow (presuming she does the minimum at least of what she has to do), she's running a little late for work. 2. It's a myth that Obama has a problem with women. Against the first viable female candidate for president in history, he ran nearly even among women. If Hillary had drawn 60% of women, she would have easily gotten the nomination. As it was, she barely edged him out among women. Now, he does need her voters and he will certainly ask for their votes in every way he can think to do it (and there is little sign even today that he won't get them), but the actual numbers suggest it's not a woman thing. HRC's advantage was among seniors and those who hadn't been to college. He has work to do in those areas.
I expect the Republicans will pull some crap in this election ... but their hearts are seriously not in it. The Republicans base does not like McCain. McCain has crossed the base once too often. It would not surprise me if the Republicans spent their serious money on preventing the kill that is likely going to happen in the Congressional races. This election I suspect will be a perfect storm for the Democrats. They will pick up seats in both Houses and the Presidency. This will be W's last hurrah and the final jewel in his legacy.
Oh no! Dems ran against Hoover for 30 years. Repubs continue to run against McGovern. Bush will help a generation of Democratic politicians.
I think Barack will win. But I'll say some challenges.... #1 John McCain is absolutely the best candidate Reps could get despite him being probably most disliked among the party (these are not independent points BTW). If you believe the military is the only thing the government should focus resources on--he is your man. If you believe we should continue a hawkish aggressive foreign policy but not be entirely stupid/poor in execution, he is your man. If anti-abortion and anti-affirmative action are core principles, well he certainly is better than Barrack. If you are not ready for an ethnic minority male P and possibly a female VP--he is your man. Plenty of folks, though I would hope a minority, share one or many of these sentiments. So lets not pretend he doesn't have political appeal--and not even getting to some individual attributes and perceptions like being a war hero and having an independent (certainly for a national politician) political streak. #2 Barack has some manovering with the Clinton situation. Whatever he does, offer Hillary or not, this is dicey and needs finese. If he doesn't pick he takes a big political gamble with many White women and Latinos who I can't tell you how dissappointed they feel. This is real folks. If he does take offer/take her, and I think he will/does, he has to really come on strong for the right reasons. He has to be compelling in her strenghts outwiegh the baggage, and this is the right and thought out decision, not an expedient one. #3 If anything this political season has shown is don't count your chickens. Last year it was probably 20-1 or more this is what we got. Terrorist attacks, natural disasters, economic surprises (good or bad), new personal baggage--lots of things can happen to stilt people going more comfortable (possibly McCain to them). Overall my hunch is Barack-Hillary wins by the biggest margin since Bill vs Dole (say 51-45; with 4% going to 3rds), and carry with them a couple of new senators (gain of 2-5?) and bigger gains in the house. I think the Reps will still have the filibuster in play in the senate. But take McCain seriously. He is the one Rep candidate with a fighting chance.
Anyone still have any of those threads archived predicting a landslide victory for John Kerry in 2004? Its June, guys. A LOT can happen before November. A candidate can be in complete control and then lose it all in one stupid moment... Just ask Howard Dean.
Republicans have a knack for distorting reality, and do it frequently to hope that one persists and snowballs. Obamaniacs are by far the most loyal grassroots org in American politics, so they might be able to stamp out the kindling before they become full fledged fires. My pessimism thinks this will be a contested fight, if only because we're in uncharted historical waters and that uncertainty will be played big time in the media.
Be fair, Deckard. Whereas I agree with your assessment, you should have, in fairness, included the creepy, shadowy groups on the fringes of the Democratic Party (with big dollars secretly backing them). Dailykos, Moveon.org, Hufpo, etc. etc. will be spewing out just as much hate and disinformation as anybody from the Far Right. I would love to see this race decided by face to face exchanges in some format that is fair to both.
How can McCain beat Obama? My question is how many knives in the back (wielded by the Hillary camp) can Obama sustain? She has already cost him a landslide win, but the question now will be how he fends her off. Yes, she will be campaigning hard for Congressional candidates, but that is only to acquire IOUs for her bid in 2012. She will be able to say, with huge crocodile tears, that she did all she could for the party, but he was just too weak. If she wounds Obama enough to lose -- in her furtive, devious way -- IMO she believes she will make mincemeat of a really elderly McCain in 2012. What hurts is that this could well prove to be a very effective strategy.
By great propaganda. Say what you will about republicans, but they have mastered the art, sinking low with no remorse. Infact, I just viewed Mccain's first propaganda ad on network tv. I didn't know this guy had been held captive by evil communists. Amazing story!
It seems at this point that Obama would walk away with the election in a landslide, but so much can change. Legitimate issues will come up in addition to the inevitable 'swiftboating' -- plus Obama didn't exactly put Hills away in the big states, if he doesn't get the full support of her voters it could be trouble. Thinking back to John Kerry, after the first debate with GWB the election seemed to be in the bag -- not so much.
This also applies to your post, KingCheetah: You're ignoring the propaganda, smear tactics by the Far Left. I'm not excusing the Far Right by any means. I'm just saying you should look at the pot before calling the kettle black (old adage, not a race thing).
The election will be close because the election is all about Barack Obama. The GOP campaign effort will cast enough doubt about Obama that millions will see McCain as a safe choice. The fact Gore didn't blow out a very weak Bush candidacy in 2000 and the fact Kerry still managed to lose to a pathetic president Bush should make it clear that IF Obama wins, it will be tightly contested at the end. Enough mud will stick on him that many people will view Obama MUCH differently (as in his negatives) in November than they do now. I promise you more tarnish is coming. This snapshot moment isn't the best time to debate what will happen in November because Obama is getting a bump and McCain hasn't found his stride.
Ummm...who do you think we were fighting in Vietnam? Communists. That's what the whole war was about. McCain was captured by the enemy and tortured for 5 years. It's called history...learn a little about it before you pipe up.
As a whole, Americans are more traditional than not. Of 100 US senators Obama has had the most liberal voting record. If it wasn't for the Iraq fiasco, a very liberal Obama would not have a chance, but here we are. So, McCain needs to show that Obama is farther to the left than any candidate has ever been. While at the same time showing he is a moderate and he'll be the one that can unite the country by pulling ideas from both sides.
Where's the McCain does coke and has secret gay sex rumor? http://www.drudge.com/archive/104311/barack-obama-gay-sex-and-drug-use Where's the McCain was brainwashed by his captors and is a Manchurian candidate who will sell the country out to terrorists rumor? http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/02/11/obama-s-pesky-muslim-problem.aspx Where's the rumor of Cindy McCain appearing with David Duke and using the N word? http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Obama_denies_a_rumor_and_questions_the_question.html Where's the rumor of McCain being a Hitler Youth? http://obama.senate.gov/press/070123-debunked_insigh/index.php Where's the rumor of Cindy McCain being a lesbian and arranging for murder or not being a lesbian and arranging for the murder of her paramour? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Vince_Foster Where's the rumor of McCain running drugs from an airstrip in AZ? http://www.salon.com/news/1998/03/26news.html Where's the rumor of McCain killing people who have damaging things to say about him. http://www.snopes.com/politics/clintons/bodycount.asp And I didn't even mention swiftboats. And these weren't just some rumors on the fringes of wingerville, they were broadcast on TV repeatedly by people like Jerry Falwell, appeared on Drudge, were put into print on the WSJ editorial page and the Wash Times news sections, and broadcast daily on a national level by winger radio programs. Be fair thumbs... there is nothing on the left that even approaches this kind of systematic, organized, supported at the highest levels kind of sleaze. If you're going to compare a post on Daily Kos to a repeated mentioning of a rumor as if it were true on Limbaugh or Fox News or the WSJ, you need to wake up. Right now the Repub operatives are running a sleazy email campaign against Obama that repeatedly claims he's a Manchurian candidate who hates America and will sell us out to the terrorists. Point me to anything close on the left. Anything. And sorry, but a site set up by one nobody that lists things older than McCain in a humorous vein does not qualify. Simply put, there's no way the left comes close to spewing as much organized hate and disinformation as the Far Right.
Rimrocker, you're a smart guy, but when it comes to comparing hate machines sometimes I don't think you live in the real world.
Why don't you provide some evidence to back up your claim. Find me the equivalent of the WSJ writing that the Clintons are smuggling drugs out of an isolated airstrip with regard to Bush.
