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How bad does Rafer and JLIII have to play before you think VSpan deserves a shot?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jopatmc, Jan 22, 2007.

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  1. RoxToSky

    RoxToSky Member

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    dont' know if someone else has mentioned, but I should point out that lucas is really a ball hogger and really sticks to his own personal stats. you won't see him passing even for a wide open, he just wants his own shots, always, always....
    That is totally not a pg!!!!!!!
    give vspan chance to show this lucas monkey what a pg should do!!!!!
     
    #61 RoxToSky, Jan 23, 2007
  2. ikfit

    ikfit Member

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    Exactly

    Is Jeff not smart enough to handle more than 8 players rotation?
     
    #62 ikfit, Jan 23, 2007
  3. intergalactic

    intergalactic Member

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    Being turnover-prone is far worse than having a low shooting percentage. A bad pass usually leads to a fast break for the other team, prevents you from even attempting a shot, and prevents your offense from having a chance to rebound your shot even if you were to miss it. Turnovers are BAD.

    I've played plenty of games where I had a crappy teammate ball-hogging, but my teams did better in those than the ones where my PG couldn't get the ball across half-court...
     
    #63 intergalactic, Jan 23, 2007
  4. sammy

    sammy Member

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    A missed 3 often results in a fast break oppurtinity also. I dont know what the answer is at the PG position but something needs to be done.
     
    #64 sammy, Jan 23, 2007
  5. rhino17

    rhino17 Member

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    I actually agree with that.
     
    #65 rhino17, Jan 23, 2007
  6. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    http://www.basketballreference.com/leaders/leaderscareer.htm?stat=turnover&lg=n


    Yeah, demdam turnovers.

    Magic Johnson averaged a turnover every 9.4 minutes which equates to 5.1 turnovers per 48 minutes.

    Dwayne Wade currently is averaging 4.7 turnovers per 48 minutes for his
    career.

    Jamal Tinsley currently is averaging 4.6 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    Jerry Stackhouse, a 2 guard who isn't a very good shooter, has averaged 4.4 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    Gilbert Arenas is averaging 4.3 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    Jason Kidd, a point guard and notorious poor shooter, is averaging 4.1 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    Stevie Francis, a debatable point guard with average shooting skills, is averaging 4.6 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    Allen Iverson is averaging 4.3 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    John Stockton averaged 4.3 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career.

    T.J. Ford is currently averaging 4.3 turnovers per 48 minutes for his career and he is not a good shooter.



    VSpan's turnover rate per 48 minutes is 4.8 after 180 minutes in his career.




    Every player on this list had a higher career turnover rate than VSpan has after playing 180 minutes in the league and they all played in at least 400 NBA games.

    Name G MIN PTS FGM FGA FGP FTM FTA FTP 3PM 3PA 3PP ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TO PF
    1. Robert Pack 552 11463 20.6 7.3 17.1 .425 5.6 7.1 .787 0.5 1.6 .292 1.1 3.6 4.7 10.7 2.5 0.2 5.5 4.4
    2. Ray Williams 655 18462 26.4 10.3 22.9 .451 5.6 6.9 .802 0.2 1.0 .237 2.1 4.0 6.2 9.8 3.1 0.5 5.5 5.6
    3. Andrew Toney 468 12608 28.4 10.9 21.8 .500 6.1 7.7 .797 0.5 1.5 .342 0.9 2.9 3.8 7.5 1.4 0.4 5.3 5.1
    4. Magic Johnson (H) 906 33245 25.6 9.0 17.3 .520 7.2 8.4 .848 0.5 1.6 .303 2.3 7.2 9.5 14.6 2.5 0.5 5.1 3.0
    5. Eddie Jordan 420 8507 19.3 7.6 18.4 .414 3.9 5.1 .763 0.1 0.6 .224 1.2 3.2 4.4 9.0 4.3 0.5 5.1 5.0
    6. Isiah Thomas (H) 979 35516 25.4 9.7 21.5 .452 5.5 7.2 .759 0.5 1.9 .290 1.3 3.4 4.7 12.2 2.5 0.3 5.0 4.0
    7. Wes Matthews 465 9305 18.8 7.5 15.8 .478 3.6 4.5 .788 0.2 0.8 .225 0.9 2.3 3.2 10.1 2.3 0.4 5.0 5.0
    8. Ricky Sobers 664 19089 22.9 8.9 19.6 .456 4.7 5.6 .845 0.3 1.1 .291 1.3 2.8 4.1 7.7 2.2 0.4 5.0 5.3
    9. Reggie Theus 1026 34603 26.4 9.8 20.8 .471 6.5 7.8 .826 0.3 1.3 .252 1.6 3.0 4.6 9.0 1.7 0.3 4.8 4.2
    10. Gary Grant 552 12602 16.6 7.1 15.8 .450 2.1 2.7 .776 0.4 1.3 .278 1.3 3.6 4.9 11.5 3.1 0.3 4.8 4.6
    11. Michealray Richardson 556 18589 21.3 8.8 19.3 .457 3.3 4.8 .690 0.3 1.5 .220 2.5 5.4 7.9 10.1 3.8 0.5 4.8 4.8


    Boy,

    Those guys may have actually been able to do something in this league...................if it wasn't for them turnovers. Obviously, they couldn't get the ball over half-court.


    :eek: :eek: :eek:
     
    #66 jopatmc, Jan 23, 2007
  7. RocketsMac

    RocketsMac Member

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    wow jopatmc, just wow. :eek: those numbers are crazy...

    I wasn't even expecting anything like that, pretty interesting stats man..

    please dude, start a new thread with this post. just the exact same post. I just wanna see what all the blind JVG lovers have to say about this... talking about major pwnage for all the Span haters..
     
    #67 RocketsMac, Jan 23, 2007
  8. Rashmon

    Rashmon Member

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    You're trying way too hard...
     
    #68 Rashmon, Jan 23, 2007
  9. sammy

    sammy Member

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    JoPat - It is not just his turnover problem that is holding him back. He can't shoot very well either, which is the same reason why everyone bashes Rafer for the most part.
     
    #69 sammy, Jan 23, 2007
  10. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    sammy, sammy, sammy

    I understand that. I was addressing the fact that the previous poster was harping on turnovers. And besides that, there are plenty of 40% career shooters with high turnover numbers who we would love to have on this team if they were not retired right now.

    Rafer can't shoot, can't finish and he can't assist. He can hand the ball off and stand in the corner for a shot though.

    VSpan needs to be given a chance to prove if he is indeed as bad or worse than Rafer and JLIII. That's my point. You can't pull one or two statistics out of the hat, especially on a player that has played 180 minutes in this league, and be able to draw any conclusions from it. VSpan especially needs to be given a chance in light of the fact that our point guard play is severly lacking right now. We ain't got Stockton or Magic on this team. We've got Rafer and JLIII. And they aren't giving us enough. That's the whole point of this thread. How much less do they have to give us before a change should be made.

    Apparently, the vast majority of posters on the most knowledgeable bulletin board in the NBA feel like we can't hurt ourselves too bad by giving VSpan a few minutes.......based on how bad the other two guys are doing right now. We're halfway through the season man. Haven't we seen enough of Rafer to know that without Yao attracting defenders away from Rafer, he is going to be horrible at best and with Yao attracting defenders, Rafer is going to at best be slightly below average?

    How much more you gotta see man? That's why all this talk about fans wanting a quick fix is bologna. We're 41 games in. Halfway through. We're 41 games away from the playoffs. And if nothing changes in regards to our rotation, we all know what's coming. When we hit Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, or whoever, they are gonna jam up 111, play off of Rafe, and force the ball into his hands. And we will be operating with a very low percentage offense.

    It won't work come playoff time. We may stumble bumble through the regular season to 50 wins, but come playoff time, when the real teams come out to play the real game, front and center will be Rafer and his 35% from the field.

    At some point, you gotta size up a situation and realize that a change needs to be made. 41 games isn't too early.
     
    #70 jopatmc, Jan 23, 2007
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2007
  11. VicVictory

    VicVictory Member

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    Please stop with the per 48 minute stats. Nobody plays 48 minutes per game, their not entirely accurate, especially when it comes down to vets and a rookie. Also, of course all those guys average more turnovers PER 48mins because they played way more minutes and games than V-Span has. Give V-Span those starter minutes those guys were getting and you'll see his turnovers increase. Also, V-Span is nowhere near the level of play that those guys are.

    Oh yeah, you must have forgot that Billy hasn't really ran point in the real season, everytime he was in was to be a "spot up" shooter, not the PG, hence the low TO numbers. Why not use his preseason stats? At least that way, he got his stats from running his true position, PG.

    Games played: 7
    MPG: 20.3
    PPG: 5.1
    APG: 3.4
    TOPG: 4.1

    Yeah, try rounding up those nice numbers to PER 48mins. Trust me, those will not be pretty. When you average more turnovers than assist, you have a problem. And it definitely means that you are turnover prone.
     
    #71 VicVictory, Jan 23, 2007
  12. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    You are making a fundamental invalid assumption that he is going to get worse with more minutes. That is not a known nor is it a given. He needs to be given more minutes to see if indeed that is the case. There are plenty of cases of players in the NBA who started out with high turnovers that decreased their turnovers. There are plenty of cases of players that started their career being horrible shooters that actually improved with more shots.

    I'm not saying he definitely will get better. But I believe there is a chance that he will and I personally think it is a good chance. But he needs to be given the chance in light of what terrible play we already have at the point.

    Using your own assumptions, we can assume that Rafer's shooting woes are going to get worse also with more games, more shots, etc. etc.
     
    #72 jopatmc, Jan 23, 2007
  13. sammy

    sammy Member

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    Jopat- I know that teams are just gonna let Rafer shoot. That is why I dont think Rafer is the answer, especially if he is playing major minutes. I just think that the coaches have seen enough in practice to put VSpan at third string or whatever he is. JL3 and V-Span are not my favorite options this season. We need to bring in someone else to split time with Rafer.
     
    #73 sammy, Jan 23, 2007
  14. VicVictory

    VicVictory Member

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    Well, then we are both wrong. You are trying to compare V-Span stats, in which he played SG, to PGs or play-making guards. Not fair because V-Span isn't handling the ball and creating plays like those other guys. That's why I brought in those preseason stats where he actually played PG. The preseason is the reason everyone is saying he's turnover prone, not the spot-up SG minutes he got during the regular season.

    I ain't saying he's not going to improve, he's going to be a good player if he doesn't get discouraged and works hard enough. But you have to be kidding to say TOs won't be a problem when he plays. And yes, in my opinion, I do think his turnovers would increase with more minutes. Especially if he's running the point guard spot. Then again, I could be wrong and he might actually do better than I though. I hope he will too.
     
    #74 VicVictory, Jan 23, 2007
  15. kokopuffs

    kokopuffs Member

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    I think there are studies that showed that when a role-player's minutes are increased, his stats increase proportionally (linear correlation).

    So, if you're going to use TO/48 stats on a statistically insignificant sample size (180 minutes), compared to TO/48 stats on another statistically insignificant sample (140 minutes in preseason), I don't see where you get to the point of writing off his assertion...because he's using the same method you do.

    Also, when you look at his TO numbers, take a look at his usage rate compared to those on your list of "high turnover stars". That to me gives a better indication of where Vspan's ability falls.
     
    #75 kokopuffs, Jan 23, 2007
  16. jopatmc

    jopatmc Member

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    The point about the 180 minutes is it is the FIRST 180 minutes of his career. If you look at every player in the NBA this year, the overwhelming majority of them sucked their first 180 minutes on the floor. But, they got better. And if you look at every player that comes into the league with a guaranteed contract, practically all of them stunk it up. But, they were good enough to merit some team handing them a GUARANTEED CONTRACT. We're not talking about a dude on a 10 day deal, or some dude in training camp trying to make a roster spot. We thought enough of him to give him several million dollars. And my contention is, there is no way that JVG can pass judgment on him for this season as long as he is on the roster and the other players that play his position are not playing any better. If you are going to sit VSpan down because of his poor play after 180 minutes, then how many minutes of poor play do we have to endure from Rafer and JLIII before VSpan gets a 2nd chance?

    See, I think JVG has already grown dissatisified with Rafer because he has started giving JLIII minutes. And it should be obvious that Rafer is not going to improve. The only possible question really is, how much longer does he go with JLIII not getting it done before he sees that there is absolutely no excuse for not trying VSpan a 2nd time? He should not waste a whole season of crappy point guard play just because he doesn't want to give VSpan another shot.

    By the way, I am notpicking JVG a little here. I'm convinced he has not given up on VSpan yet. I'm convinced he plans on giving VSpan another shot. Unfortunately, I am becoming convinced that he is going to let VSpan rot the rest of this year and give him another shot in training camp next year. In my opinion, with the poor point guard play we have had, if he does this, he is not only wasting a year of VSpan's career but he's also wasting a year of Yao/McGrady/Battier and all of us fans because we know we are going to see a clank job in the playoffs. Barring that, if Rafe and JLIII continue at their current level, I think there is a trade for a 4th PG before the deadline.

    Welcome to H-town, Mr. Atkins.


    Vic,

    the point about turnovers is even though he has played SG for a lot of minutes, his turnovers have not been SG turnovers. They haven't been turnovers from him catching the ball in the corner and fumbling it out of bounds. His turnovers have been caused by him driving the ball to the basket and dishing. They are a result of him trying to make a play. They are essentially point guard turnovers..........because no matter what spot he plays, he is a point guard by nature.
     
    #76 jopatmc, Jan 23, 2007
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2007
  17. FranchiseBlade

    FranchiseBlade Member
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    The reply that I have is they would have to play worse than V-Span.
     
    #77 FranchiseBlade, Jan 23, 2007
  18. IC2000

    IC2000 Contributing Member

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    I have a hunch vspan may get on the court against the spurs.
     
    #78 IC2000, Jan 23, 2007
  19. Riz

    Riz Member

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    when Rafer's FG is at 6%
     
    #79 Riz, Jan 23, 2007
  20. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Member

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    the assist numbers next to those turnovers - I don't think a player on that list has an AST/TO ratio as bad as Spanoulis'. And there's an inherent flaw comparing a guy intended to be a roleplayer to a guy who is also a top scorer in the NBA. The fact it's anywhere near the territory of guys who deal with constant double teams is a flag in and of itself.

    And that's exactly where your thinking goes wrong.

    1. He's already been given a chance, and was, indeed, not only as bad, but worse.

    2. Why? I haven't been given a chance to prove if I'm indeed as bad or worse than Rafer or JLIII? Gundy is clearly holding back my potential!

    Silly? Yes. The point is, this idea is based on a terribly flawed premise.

    Go find me the teams that don't purposefully play small ball and play 3 PGs regular minutes. They don't really exist. At a max, 2 PGs can be in the rotation - and a rotation of Lucas and Spanoulis isn't going to happen. That means Rafer is one of them. Spanoulis has to show he's at least better than Lucas. Didn't happen. Hasn't happened. Get over it.

    Suppose you went in with intent to give both Lucas and Spanoulis 10 games/ 200 minutes worth of trial time. That's basically what has happened. Lucas wins that contest in a landslide - of course he's going to get an extension on his "trial" because of it. It's the smart, fair, and logical thing to do.

    I don't get any particular joy from watching Rafer play, other than the fact he wears Rocket red. I'm all for bringing in a PG fix for this season. But Spanoulis' minutes aren't going to come in lieu of Rafer. They're going to come in lieu of Lucas. You can count on one hand the number of people here who really are particularly pleased with Rafer's play to date, but Rafer has a minimal at best effect on Spanoulis making it on the court. He has to beat out Lucas, who in similar time, won that competition fair and square. The sooner you realize that, the happier you'll be. If Lucas struggles, then Span can get another chance. Lucas had a pretty terrible game against Phoenix, and that might mean Span will get another chance in the near term, but he won't have a long leash - a bad game could make it even longer.
     
    #80 NIKEstrad, Jan 23, 2007
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2007
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