They are projects for a reason... low risk undervalued guys that everyone knows might have a chance but will probably not work out. Even being able to get 4 or 5 guys who are able to make decent careers for themselves is a decent clip...
Im not high on Zhou either. He has excellent length and he’s skilled. He’s also relatively quick and agile for a seven footer but ultimately none of his positives are good enough to transcend his lack of physical strength. I’d love to be wrong in this case and see him be a productive player for the Rockets, but i just dont see it happening...
Talent level is the factor your missing in your equation. The variance in talent level in the G League compared to what he will see on a daily basis in the NBA will be vast. To bang in the paint against the best the NBA has to offer (night in and night out) could take a toll on not only his body but also his mental psyche. If he goes into the game and constantly gets abused or bullied in the paint, that would most likely force D'Antoni's hand and bench him. Then you have a case where every time he steps onto the court he thinks about being more physical against the opposition instead of resorting to his natural skill. So I agree his stamina, all around, is important... even if just for 10-15 minutes per game for 82 games+.
No it's not missing at all. The talent level is taken into consideration, hence the comparison to double the minutes in the G League. Faster game, stronger players, more talent. It's really non sense. His training in the G League is also geared to prepare him for NBA games. 99.9% of people who play 30 minutes in G League for a good organization, will be able to play 12-15 minutes in the NBA, unless you have some random rare condition. Which he doesn't. In fact, he's been a professional longer than most people his age and plays right now for one of the best organizations for fitness and development in the NBA. It's just not going to be an issue. Even Capela, who had a historically atrocious stamina, was able to muster up 19 minutes against bigger, stronger, faster competition his second season. Qi is not less fit than that guy was. He is less athletic, but not less fit.
Double the minutes doesn't just magically double the talent level. If you're completely dominating a G League guy at 25-30 minutes a game it won't be the equivalent to getting bodied by Lamarcus Aldridge for 12-15 minutes. Sure Capela did ok in his second season, but if you recall... he was constantly getting pulled out of the paint and switched on by guys like Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, and Russell Westbrook. Those types of players will take advantage of his lack of lateral quickness and when they're done with him the likes of Draymond, Nurkic, and Adams will start beating up on his lack of physicality. Those two players are not very similar in comparison (Capela vs. Qi). Capela is an athlete that relies on that to stay in front of his opponent and on the follow (if beaten) has the ability to block a shot. Zhou Qi relies on staying right in front of his defender and uses his length to stop them right in front of the rim or block the shot. Now once he is beat it's over. There's no recovering there, as he's basically caught in no man's land. I'd say by his 3rd year with actual NBA experience under his belt he will be able to hang. But I feel like you're expecting to much contribution from his end, this season.
It's not magical at all, it's just well observed. Capela was dying on 19 minutes and he has a historically bad stamina. At worst Qi will be able to mimic that. We've never seen anyone with a worse stamina than Capela, and he is overcoming it. Chinese players have terrible training, but one thing they do over emphasize in their training is endurance. He won't have an issue, just like most players of all athletic abilities who don't have trouble halving their minutes from G League to NBA. Why would this only happen to Qi?
I think if he gets on the floor, its 10-15 mpg max, because of his defensive fundamentals and length, while being able to hit an occasional three and occasional putback
Yao Ming had terrible stamina when he joined the Rockets. He was a million times worse than Capela and that was at a time where we ran one of the slowest offenses in the league. Also, while we're talking up his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) he still has to perform on the other end. If opponents have the opportunity to sag off Qi at the 3 point line that'll be less to worry about and also more reason to shorten his minutes. In all, he really needs to work on that (one handed?) 3 point shot of his. I'm really hoping he develops, but obviously imo it may take another year before he can contribute consistently for us.
I'm not seeing in Hartenstein what some of you are seeing. To me, he's too slow and too clumsy, and has no moves. At least for the NBA level. He'll probably do pretty well with the Vipers. MCW interests me for only one reason: Morey decided to sign him. He and MDA must have a plan for him, and I'm curious to see what it is.
I don't know what MCW should be classified as, but I don't think it's a "project." Even thinking of him as a reclamation project feels wrong because he's never been good. Sure, he put up volume stats one year. But that's not impressive. If anything, that probably hurt his development. While he should have been trying to improve at a few aspects of his game and contributing to Wins, he was told to just go out there and do an Iverson impersonation - wins be damned! I still don't know why we signed him. I mean, as a 15th guy in the rotation he'll be good, but usually (good) teams don't rush to sign their 15th guy so early in the offseason. As for the others: I don't see anything from Hartenstein or Chee. I don't know much about Melton but I am hopeful that he will develop into something. Same for Bruno that I don't really know enough about him to declare one thing or another, but I'm less hopeful that he will develop into something than I am with Melton.
Tiring circles. Yao could play 10-15 minutes in his second season. So could Capela. So can any player who has 1 year of NBA practices and some game time under their belts. I don't understand why this is a particular sticking point for you, but I think we've pretty much overdiscussed this lol.
What's very interesting to me is that the Rockets used to collect (as projects) 3pt shooters and try to improve their defense (with any other skill being a bonus). Now they have gone full speed the other way, collecting players with the length to play defense but who cannot shoot. They seem highly confident in their ability to teach shooting. Which gives me confidence in their confidence, because this is not a faith-based organization to say the least. They must have stumbled upon some data to that effect. For example, they might see that 1 of 3 or 4 people put through a rigorous shooting regimen will ultimately pan out as a shooter. Which means, between Qi, Melton, MCW and Hartenstein - if one of them becomes a 40% shooter, it is worth the combined salary of all 4 of them. Just a thought, but it would be interesting to know if they are indeed pursuing this kind of strategy.
Any examples? Ariza, Moute, CP3, Tucker, even Gordon all experienced an immediate decline in 3pt% when they came to Houston.
Melo is a project. People need to realize that. It’s 50/50 that he will even be on the team come playoff time.
Talking about projects. But if we were discussing the topic you bring up, I would say all those guys were vets when they arrived and their attempts shot up when here so it is only logical their accuracy would come down. The team is actually aiming for the right accuracy/volume ratio that much seems obvious to me. That's why no one is really hitting 40% for us, because when someone does we basically tell him to shoot more and more until there's no return on it.
Volume. PJ Tucker - went from 2.5 attempts to almost a solid 4 attempts per game Trevor Ariza - went from 5.7 attempts to almost a solid 7 attempts per game Eric Gordon - went from 6.5 attempts to almost a solid 9 attempts per game You have to factor this in when judging shooting percentages from newly acquired Rockets players.
True. But looking for examples of this, "Now they have gone full speed the other way, collecting players with the length to play defense but who cannot shoot.They seem highly confident in their ability to teach shooting."