I'm going to go out on a huge limb and predict that they do not pick a Tight End in the 1st round. If they do, I'll happily contribute $20 to the tip jar. Any one with me? If they do maybe we get enough contributed that would cover the cost of Clutch removing any mention of the Texans from this website and banning everyone who speaks of them again.
Yeah, but trusting the Texans to get that "good player" is another thing. If we move up, we take the guess work out of it and instead of Rick blowing both rounds we get one sure thing.
National Football Post Mock Draft: 11. Houston: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri Smith gives new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips flexibility as an OLB and as a DE in defensive sub packages. RealGM Mock Draft: 5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. The best remaining talent on the board and a legit playmaker, which blends nicely with the aggressive defense. This slot will generate a lot of trade interest, and the Texans are a candidate willing to move up. I'll paint a bold picture here: Houston trades up and takes Peterson here, and the Cardinals use the extra ammo to trade for Kevin Kolb once players can be dealt. 11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri. I've talked to several people with the Texans and every one of them has told me the team likes Smith and has for some time. If the trade up goes down and Arizona is here, they take Robert Quinn.
I hate mortgaging the future at the risk of saving Kubiak's career, but I really think both Miller, and to a lesser extent Peterson, are real franchise type players. And quite frankly, I'm tired of team Vanilla and playing it so safe. Let's just roll the damned dice already... I just wish we were rolling the dice on behalf of a new coach/gm that actually deserve the chance.
A couple of things: I'm not sure I really advocate anythong here, one way or the other, but I saw somewhere that the bust rate for top 15 CB's over the last 20 years is negligable ( I think there is a total of one player over that period), whereas it is pretty significant for DE/OLB edge rush types - something approaching 25%, or something like that. At the same time, with respect to Peterson, there has never been a CB that large that has succeded in the NFL. Of course, neither of these facts actually mean anything with respect to these players, but it is something to think about. It is pretty much an absolute that someone drafted in the top 15 that a whole lot of people are convinced is an absolute stud is going to turn out to be a bust. That is why I am somewhat warry of the trade up scenario. What happens if you trade this year's #2 & #3 for a "guaranteed stud" who busts? You basically flush the entire draft. It seems to make more sense to spread the risk. If you were building an IRA and put all your money in one stock, people would rightly call you crazy. FWIW, my dream scenario is #11 to the Pats for #28 and #33, then start a bidding war for QB hungry teams for #33 between days 1 and 2. It works on the value chart (even slightly in NE's favor) but even if Bellicheck wanted someone at 11 he wouldn't do it - he's going to have too much fun with #33 himself.
I've always liked the Belichick draft style of trading back and stocking mid-rounders and casting as wide of a talent net as possible... then seeing what cream rises to the top. Problem is, the Texans haven't even shown a propensity to do that type of gambling, let alone the even bigger gamble of trading up. They're typically just not very active during the draft it seems (I don't remember a ton of deals, at least, anybody remember some?). Teams that are already successful also tend to have a lot more freedom when it comes to trading down, they don't have any glaring holes where they need immediate help... and that makes trading back a lot harder to stomach... unlike a certain team I know of...
I'd rather trade up and take a sure-fire pick in Peterson than have our knuckleheads try and find talent later in the first and second rounds.
williams and dunta were a different regime. Cushing was/is the only impact player taken. Jackson...to be determined. sadly, i'm not super confident in either pick.
Peterson is 6'1, 222. Nnamdi Ashomuga is 6'2, 210. Champ Bailey is 6'0, 192. Peterson certainly weighs more than your average corner, but as long as he has the moves, footwork, and ball instincts, I don't think it should be a concern. My only problem with "spreading the risk" is that we have a pretty poor track record at drafting. At this point, I'd rather gamble on a great player instead of watching us come away with marginal players at best from the 3rd round on. Since Eric Winston, Antoine Caldwell and Earl Mitchell are really the only 3rd rounders that there is still hope that can become long-term starters (and that's just because they are still developing). IMO the best teams are able to find starters into the 3rd and 4th round routinely. Jacoby Jones has shown flashes but can't be relied on, Slaton was a flash in the pan, Molden has done nothing. Our second rounder are both incomplete too thus far (Tate, Barwin). Hell, Glover Quin is really the only thing we have to show outside of the first round since 2006. You just have to have more hits than that.
The Pats really collect their war room of picks by selling off vets up for a new contract. The sort of thing the Texans declined to do with Dunta. Texans, trading up or down in the draft are batting almost 1.000.....in screwing up and worsening themselves. Still need to fill both safety spots and bring in at least one upper tier backup for the DL, ILB, and OLB spots. Since FA CBs tend to have an astronomical market value (most being ridiculously overpaid), I'd still push for nabbing Peterson and getting a stud on a (new, sensible) rookie deal, and split the $16M Asomugha would command among a safety like Huff and an acceptable placeholder at WOLB. Nutless, stay-in-the-box loser. If they stay at #11, they take the 4th best WOLB and then in the second take a complimentary type CB. It's playing it safe, but it takes us nowhere. Get your hands on the Stud. I promise you the Texans could sign a WOLB rush specialist that would (next season) be just as good as a 2nd rounder. Marginal starters are a dime a dozen. Game changers like Peterson and Miller aren't. And I doubt we're sitting at #11 next year. LOL, I totally deserve it. And I honestly did get home around 7 and "remembered" that it was the draft...until I realized the next second that it was in fact Wednesday and not Thursday. One of those weeks for me.
Not in the first, but DJ Williams from Arkansas is a prototype Texan. I wouldn't surprise me to see us take him in the 4th. One of these days, a team with an injured TE is going to pay us dearly.
Smith won't give up a second to move up and get Patrick? I'm with emjohn and others that say we can't afford NOT to move up and grab this fantastic talent at a need position....But this should be done in conjunction with paying Asomugha if we're serious about making noise. Yes we have to address safety, but that can happen through free agency or a 3rd - 4th rounder. I guess it all makes too much sense which means we won't do it. The main problem is that no matter what we do ....we're still stuck with the idiocracy that has us all by the nuts.
I always wondered why the average height among cb's has been 5'10" to 6'0". Is it because if they're bigger than that they sorta default to try out as a WR?
FML If they pick Aldon Smith. THey need to do whatever it takes to Robert Quinn or Patrick Peterson then find a way to trade up for Jimmy Smith
I think people are forgetting that they dealt two 2s for Matt Schaub, which was a fairly significant gamble in terms of leveraging picks. But to a larger point: When has this regime been in position to gamble? They inherited a 2-14 team. They needed as many picks as humanly possible those first few years. Since, have they been unwilling to gamble... or has there simply not been a prospect worth dealing up for? I mean, who in the past 2-3 drafts would you have advocated dealing additional picks to acquire? Which can't-miss prospect would have put them over the hump and been worth giving up picks for? Go back to 2008 - identify the Von Millers/Patrick Petersons of the past 3 drafts who fit a team need. Last year, Suh and Berry would have obviously been great pick-ups - but there was no indication the Chiefs and certainly not Lions were willing to deal. Maybe dealing up a few spots for Earl Thomas - but going 20 to 14 is a far cry from trying to sneak into the top 5. I think you have to consider the landscape. Have they routinely passed on game-changing opportunities, or have there simply not been many game-changing opportunities available? Nope. Mario Williams was Kubiak's first pick.
