I'm guessing 46-50. For what it's worth before the tanking seasons I was guessing around 20 wins and before last season I was guessing first team not in the play in. I think the biggest wild card on our team is Jalen. If he comes out and doesn't play really well and we are behind schedule from a win% perspective he will be traded. I'm not saying that is the most likely scenario btw... just that it's a wild card
Just chose 40-41 wins and looks like I get the prize for being the biggest hater of the team. The west overall has loaded up a bit more for next year especially with Memphis no longer injured, Warriors still clinging on to make another run, and the Spurs actually having a PG. And while I am hoping the Rockets get another star to blossom alongside Sengun next year, I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime the vets not named FVV should be getting fewer playing time which while good for youngsters development, isn't actually good for winning.
What the playoffs showed was those top West teams aren’t invulnerable. None of them are dominant in my opinion. While I don’t think we are there in terms of experience we could still make a great run to get in the playoffs and maybe knock one of these teams out.
Don’t get the luck talk. If teams were unlucky against us and we had one of the worst 3pt% in the league then weren’t we also unlucky on nights where we shot less than 30%?
Also comes down to few things: -Shooting. Will our 3pt shooting be better? -Offensive sets. Will we see less high screen and roll and more elbow DHO’s, more Sengun in high post, more cutting? -Level of play for Sengun and Green. Is this the year they both come into their own and become a premier tandem?
He and Amen both do. Jalen needs to be better as well from behind the arc if he takes as many 3's as last year. I'm hoping Jabari steps up another notch as well. He improved his shooting a lot from year one, and I'd like to see him get involved more in the shot taking. I will be an optimist and say 48 wins, but if Sengun or Fred get hurt we might struggle to reach that. Fred's our best 3 PT shooter and PT guard, and Sengun is a huge part of our offense. If Adams is full strength it will make a huge difference as well. It will be interesting to see Reed get some minutes and experience. We need good 3 PT shooters desperately. Who knows, we could do even better than 48 wins if these kids make big leaps and the rotations are good. I just don't see us doing as poorly as last year, especially with more experience, the best player from the draft and our other promising new additions.
FVV getting about 28-30 mins is good for winning. He will be more effective with the extra rest. His injury last year set us back substantially as did Jabari’s, Sengun’s, and Brooks. We have a very deep team and should be able to keep our players fresh and cohesive throughout the year. Having Adams and/or an injury free Landale will allow us to limit Sengun’s minutes to around 30 per game. There are 240 available mins in an NBA game. This is how I think the mins distribution should be in round numbers: 30 mins - FVV, Amen, Sengun, Jabari, Jalen 20 mins - Tari, Brooks if here (Cam if not) 17 mins Cam, Sheppard, Adams or Landale If we jettison Brooks: 33 mins - Amen, Jabari, Jalen 30 mins - FVV, Sengun, 22 mins - Tari 20 mins - Cam, Sheppard 19 mins - Adams and Green (combined) These are the target numbers going in. Injuries, matchups, who is hot and who is not, blowouts would affect the numbers.
It will be good for winning if whoever takes his position when he is out can manage the offense effectively. Too often last year, when FVV left the game, the opposing team would begin to turn the table on us.
Yeah we had no capable backup point last year. Amen wasn't ready and Jalen had to take on this role a lot, with not much success outside his run at the end. Hopefully this year Amen/Sheppard can do a more capable job, given that the Rockets didn't go out to sign a veteran for this role.
Solid comments. Lots of ifs this season, but I am optimistic on most. I think Jalen showed some growing abilities as a facilitator last year. Amen and Sheppard should be an upgrade over what Holiday brought, especially defensively with Amen and BBIQ with Sheppard.
I agree that Holiday should not be the facilitator. That said, the Rockets played great when FVV and Holiday were on the court. If Sheppard or Green can take the on ball reps, Holiday should be fine as depth even if he comes into the rotation due to injury (provided not FVV). I see Amen as more a secondary ball handler/short roller/dunker spot at this point and see Holiday as more a compliment to his game (spacer keeping his man away from Amen in whatever role Amen is doing on a possession). If Sheppard takes hold of the backup PG spot, I could see some Sheppard, Holiday, Amen, Tari, Sengun minutes when Holiday is in the rotation due to injury.
I wonder if they are actually playing Jalen out of position as a 2 guard that he may be better suited to playing the point alongside a scorer like Cam (or Sheppard), where he can be the primary ball handler in most of those pick and roll actions which gets him downhill more often than not, means he takes fewer 3's and more shots at the rim / in the mid range.
Jalen is not played out of position. He is not a PG. He is the proverbial combo guard. (I've been thinking the term "combo guard" might just be a glorified name for a backcourt tweener, a player who doesn't have enough playmaking to be a PG but needs the ball in hands to be effective.) It's too late now. The KPJ experiment had gone on for too long, wasting a lot of development time for everybody. They should have done that at the beginning. Let Jalen and Alpi do lots of PnR. Now they want to win and they aren't going to take the ball out of FVV's hands and experiment on Jalen. What Jalen can do is to learn to play off ball and cut more effectively and be the secondary creator.
I would just like to point out that I was one of the 5 people who predicted 55+ wins in this poll, before the season. I think DD hasn't voted yet on the poll. Pointing this out just in case he votes just before the end of the season and says "I told you so" .
