Clutch, When you couple Cato, who is making about $6 million a year, with that 4+ million trade slot the Rockets have there ... possibly put in Drew in there, you're looking at being able to acquire an $11-12 million player... The problem is that Cato is a base year player, so we can only receive 50% of his salary in return for him. Normally that's a deal killer unless the other team is substantially under the cap. If Cato does indeed make $5.5M next year the deal would have to look like this: Rockets: Give up $5.5M in salary (Cato) and receive $2.75M in return. This works from the Rockets end because you can always trade down in salary. Team X: Gives up $2.75M in salary and gets $5.5M (Cato) in return. Since Team X is trading up in salary, they have to have either $2.75M in available cap space, at least $2.75M in trade exceptions or they'll need to get a third team involved that can absorb some of the extra money. [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited May 04, 2000).] [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited May 04, 2000).]
If this is what its going to take to move up in the draft (Kelvin Cato), then the question to ask, is it really worth it? My opinion is no, it would be way too much to give up. I would rather the Rockets keep Cato and hope Jerome Moiso falls to #9 than deal Cato and the 9th to move up for Swift or Martin. As much as I would love to have Swift on this team, I just dont think its worth it to give the 9th pick along with Cato. It is just so incredibly difficult to add 7 footers with the kind of shot blocking and athleticism that Cato has. Guys like Cassell, Dickerson, Harrington, Horry were all replaced with out too much trouble but talented 7 footers dont grow on trees. The goal of the Rockets should be to add a piece to the puzzle that can play with Francis, Anderson, Mobley and Cato. If the Rockets got fair value for Cato it would be one thing, but just moving up a couple of spots is not worth it imho. The Rockets landing Moiso at #9 will depend pretty much on what NJN and Cle do in this draft. Its looking like the first 4 picks would be Mihm, Martin, Swift, Fizer (in no particular order) followed by Miller and Miles. I have a strange feeling that Jerry Krause is going to be all over Darius Miles at the 6th overall pick. That leaves a trio of players, Alexander, Johnson and Moiso for the 7-8-9 slots. I am hoping that New Jersey takes Johnson as a wing player instead of going for size in Moiso, and then Cleveland follows them with a scorer in Alexander. The worst scenario would be if New Jersey takes Moiso and Cleveland takes Johnson as Alexander would not be what the Rockets need or want. Basically, if Alexander goes in the first 8, its good for the Rockets, if not, they are in a tough situation. Outside of the top 5, the Rockets could really use Miles, Johnson and Moiso but not Alexander. ------------------ Check out the Best Source for Draft Info Draftsource.net
I'd be inclined to agree with Pole to some extent. If Orlando is eyeing players (Darius Miles?) who would be around at #9, then this really isn't such a bad deal for them. And what if they know they're going to get Tim Duncan, somehow... or at least have a very strong intimation that they might. Might they not want a player who doesn't demand the ball that much? You wanted us to think from the perspective of a Magic fan. So, here we go... if they did such a trade, imagine this as their lineup PF Moiso SF (random player they can trade for with the picks they're owed, or sign) C Duncan SG Mercer (nobody's giving him maximum) PG Armstrong Is the difference between Moiso and Swift really that much greater than the advantage derived from being free of two obligations? I'm not sure. Perhaps the Magic aren't either. But that lineup is one that could take them to the finals, and their bench remains deep. As for Cato, I simply don't think he's essential to our plans for the future. I mean, even a decent chance at Webber next year might be worth giving him up. My greatest fear: we trade up, and then use the #4 pick on Mihm or Fizer. Dear lord, please no. ------------------
So refresh me, what acquisitions has Popeye hit right on the nail through this source of his? I know he knew about the Francis deal way before it happened. Did he know about the Shandon Anderson deal? What other insider views has he had that has come true in one way or another? ------------------ The clock is winding down, and Scottie has the ball, Cato is sprinting towards him, Pippen shoots and here comes Cato. Man did you see that block?!!! Ouch it hit Scottie right between the legs. ITS FINAL!! THE ROCKETS ARE THE CHAMPIONS OF Y2K!!!
aelliott is right about the CBA calculations, but has Clutch's scenario turned on its head. Team X is trading down in Clutch's scenario. for instance: SA trades $9m (Duncan) to us for Cato. Clearly, SA is taking on less salary. The $4.5m is all about us trading up. That's what Clutch is talking about. Aelliot, since the $4.5m was created by us trading down, we spend it now by trading up. Team X has no worries. Think of us essentially "trading" the exception to the next team (who is trading down). Whichever team we do the $4.5m trade with, will then have a $4.5m exception. Do you follow? Think of it as a coupon in the league, that keeps getting passed around until someone let's it expire. Here's the simply Math Cato trade value is 50% of $5.333m = $2.666m Drew is what? = $1m Plus $4.5m exception -------------------- $8.1m which is within 15% of $9m To get back to simplicity for everyone: Yes...We can trade Cato/Drew for a $9m player, because Team X can always trade down.
First, the only way I trade Cato(Drew too?) and our #9 is if we get Duncan. Otherwise Cato remains on the team unless we couple him with the $4.4 mil exception(and/or Drew) in a trade after the draft. Despite his shortcomings, you just can't teach 7 feet tall and athletic. ------------------ We're going to miss you Chuck! Thanks for all the memories! [This message has been edited by RocketsPimp (edited May 04, 2000).]
Haven and Pole...last comments about that this is worth it for Orlando. I simply never look at negotiations from what I want, only. I look at what the other side is willing to offer, as well. I guarantee there are 20+ teams in the NBA calling Orlando about that #3. Do you really think the #9 and a future sucky pick is the best deal on the table? Why wouldn't they trade with Vanc and then trade the #4 to #8 plus THAT TEAM'S future sucky pick. Everyone's got a future sucky pick to offer...for christsakes. Isn't #8 more valuable than #9? See where I'm coming from. Forget about the future picks that get freed up, they can always negotiate one of those. The top picks go up in value exponentially the closer they get to the #1. I think you guys are undervaluing the #3 out of excitement of how great it would be to move up at the expense of a #20.
My source tells me I need a cheese sandwich! All joking aside, I love this kinda thing. This is what makes this BBS tick. As for my actual info, got nuthin' at the moment although it has been whispered by a couple of my friends that they would be SHOCKED if the Rockets did not use their $4.4 million trade exemption and that it would undoubtedly be packaged with a high-salry player to get into that $10-$12 million player range. In other words, Clutch ain't foolin'! ------------------ "No one gets out ALIVE!" SaveOurRockets.com [This message has been edited by Jeff (edited May 04, 2000).]
<marquee><h1> JUST SAY NO TO ANTOINE WALKER!!!!</h1></marquee> ------------------ You can't have everything.Where would you put it?
Guy's, don't rule out Rashard Lewis just yet. Word on the street has it that he still wants to play in Houston. It may take a player in addition to our $4.4 million exception to get him, but it can be done. He is more of a possibility than Duncan is of coming to Houston. One thing they talked about on the 610 this morning was Rashard coming aboard, moving Shandon to the 2 and Mobley being the odd man out. It got me to thinking, why not have Mobley be the backup at the PG, SG, and on occasion, the SF positions? He would still get major minutes and be able to contribute in many different ways every night. Also, Houston has to use their trade exception or lose it. We can't save it for next year. ------------------ We're going to miss you Chuck! Thanks for all the memories!
heypartner, Looks like I didn't make my point very well. The real point that I was trying to convey was that Cato's BYC was going to lessen the amount of salaries that we get back by 50% of Cato's salary so we couldn't get the $11M or $12M player as Clutch described. The only difference in our two scenarios is the amount of salary that we get in return. In my scenario Houston is trading down and team X is trading up. In yours you get more salary back by offsetting it with the exception. While this flip flops which team is trading up and which team is trading down, in both cases Cato's BYC status lowers the return we get by 50% of his salary . Anyway, I should have accounted for the variation that included the exception as you described. So, props to you for coming up with that one. RocketsPimp, It's next to impossible for us to get Rashard Lewis. I think that most people pretty much agree that there's no way that we can outright sign Lewis due to Seattle's right of first refusal. A sign and trade for Lewis is theoretically possible, but the salaries will have to match within 15%, so we can't include any additional players and Seattle has absolutely no incentive to do such a deal. DaFranchise has a good concise explanation of the situation in the "Mobley for Chicago's pick" thread. ------------------
On the Base-Year Compensation players: Yes, Cato will be BYC, so he's only worth half his salary in trade. But big-ticket players we could sign-and-trade for will also be BYC. Duncan will only be worth $4.5 million in trade. Lewis, McGrady, Hill, Eddie Jones all will only be worth half their salaries in trade. Aelliott, can you answer this question for me? I'll look for the answer myself in the meantime: Does our $4.4 million exception give us latitude in matching salaries in trade and/or does it give us latitude in fitting players we've traded for under the cap? For example, Duncan S&Ts to us for Cato. In trade, Cato's worth $2.5 and Duncan's worth $4.5. The exception allows us to match the salaries in trade. But does the exception also allow us to fit Duncan's salary in even though we're over the cap? ------------------
JV, Remember this about BYC players. That 50% number is only the amount of salary that you can get back for a BYC player. That BYC player counts against their new team's cap at 100% of their actual Salary. So, if Houston wanted to trade Cato for Duncan: Houston trades Cato ($5.3M) and can only get back $2.66M in return. Cato would count $5.3M against the Spurs cap. San Antonio trades Duncan ($9M) and can only get back $4.5M in return. Duncan would count $9M against Rockets cap. End Result: Houston gives up $5.3M in salary and gets $9M in salary. We could use our trade exception to make up this difference. SA gives up 9M in salary and gets $5.3M in return. SA has traded down in salary and that's always allowed. A BYC player for BYC player trade would be pretty cool. I don't believe one of those has ever happened that I can remember. ------------------
aelliott, I understand you were giving a general BYC exlanation. I thought I'd jump in to help simplify the situation by sticking to Clutch's scenario, and showing how your point is better used to correct the overestimate of the trade matching potential of Cato/Drew and the $4.4, and leave it at that. Let's go ahead and do that. Would you agree with this? Cato + the $4.4 can match up the following: (50% of Cato) + ($4.4m) + ($150k CBA token) ----------------- $2.6666 + $4.4 + $150K = $7.216 Now, the 15% rule allows Cato and the exception to land us: Total of $8.4m in return. aelliott, can you answer Mango's questions? Those deadline dates bug me, and I thought maybe we could mutually compose an email to LC unless you already know the answer. I think we had three: 1. when are trades of signed players allowed again, 2. is that date any different for trading picks. 3. when do new salaries go into effect. [This message has been edited by heypartner (edited May 04, 2000).]
heypartner, Your numbers look good. I'm not clear on exactly what question is being asked? What dates are you refering to? ------------------ [This message has been edited by aelliott (edited May 04, 2000).]
I think the one thing that is being overlooked here is that the lottery has not taken place yet and none of the positions are set. No lottery team will make a trade until the positions are set. For all we know we could end up with the #1 already without giving up squat. I know that speculating is fun and I enjoy it as much as the rest of you but we might as well be speculating on winning the lotto. ------------------
Rocketsauce makes a really good point. Some team like Dallas or even the Rockets could ping pong their way into the top 3. That would change EVERYTHING. I think that we probably won't know anything close to substantive after the draft lottery at the earliest. ------------------ "No one gets out ALIVE!" SaveOurRockets.com
