man...great post and repped. i got out of bp in my personal account after reading this. i want to short bp now. i don't think total disaster is being priced into bp. i think only the current spill is being priced in. pretty scary stuff if the well blows out and oil is gushing 150,000 barrels/day full bore. gotta hope the relief wells work and the entire well structure doesn't fail. i talked to my mom who works for the casing company on the relief wells and she said they will know in about 2 weeks if the relief wells will work or not.
Can someone help with the physics of oil wells. I understand that one of the reasons why we can't just cap it is because the pressure might cause rupture in other parts of the pipes. But where does this pressure come from? For example, if you drill a hole on top of a barrel of water, high pressure water doesn't come gushing up. Manga erupts because of gas build up and heat expansion, but I'm not sure why oil does. If the oil is "compressed", that means, the oil well can never be emptied, right?
The oil is under pressure as it is under a mile of ocean and then under a bunch of rock on top of that. Think of it as a huge underground balloon that BP drilled a controlled hole into so that they could siphon the oil and gas out. The cap on that hole has failed, so the pressurized contents will continue to escape until the pressure at the bottom of the ocean is greater than the pressure inside the "balloon" (the oil reservoir). The way I understand it, the oil technically isn't pressurized (since liquid doesn't compress), but there is also a LOT of methane gas in the same reservoir and that gas is highly pressurized.
Imagine your barrel of water has 18,000 feet of mud and rock on top of it instead of a lid. Then drill a hole through that mud and rock to the water. High pressure water will gush up, figuratively speaking.
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The oil is compressed beneath a capstone of nonporous rock. The problem is that they have drilled through the nonporous rock. If you cap the well above that nonporous layer, the oil and natural gas will just ooze around the sides and bubbles up through the porous mud and rock. If you wanted to wait long enough, the pressure in the well would eventually be relieved. But at that point there would be a whole lot of oil in the gulf.
Thanks, I didn't understand where the pressure came from. I was thinking oil wells are like water wells where there's a cavity benefit the earth otherwise, the soil would absorb the oil. The nonporous rocks would explain it.
Maybe I am not reading you right. I thought, even though they drilled thru the nonporous layer, the hole/ well is replaced by the casing which has cement between the casing and the outer hole. In fact it is sealed shut, the only way for the oil to come up is thru the perforated wall of the casing, up the tube inside the casing to the surface?
According to my limited understanding, the cement has been a significant failure point, and a number of their proposed plans have been discarded out of concern for the integrity of the cement - i.e. concern that it will fracture. I'm not a deep sea drilling engineer, and I don't in any way know all the details, but according to everything I've read they are a lot less confident in that cement than you seem to be. In any case it certainly isn't as strong as the cap rock.
You know, several of our clients are oil and gas companies, and one of their guys was telling me about the spill about two weeks after it happened. I know he 'knows' others in the industry, but to be honest I didn't pay much attention at the time. He tried to tell me that it was going to get a lot worse (like I said this was two weeks in), that it would take at least 4-6 months to fix, and that issues with the leak were beyond that of just the BOP. He also said that the issue was all with the cement, and that BP did not wait long enough for the cement to make a correct seal. Now I'm kinda wondering if maybe the guy was right. :[
so lets say bp ends up facing criminal charges (which i think is much more likely now)...how bad could things get for them?
That is balls. It is shocking that the next fix attempt is at least 2 months out. Your client looks dead on about this. I have a few friends that are instructors in Biloxi, MS......and they were told that it was a waste to start clean-up efforts. Even the damn Military down there is waiting this out. Really unbelievable...
Awesome! Barack HUSSEIN Obama can't get it done, so Sarah Palin is on the job. She provides her plan to solve the problem posthaste, via Twitter. We need more of this sort of clear headed, practical leadership in this country: [rquoter] Gulf disaster needs divine intervention as man's efforts have been futile. Gulf lawmakers designate today Day of Prayer for solution/miracle [/rquoter] Her solution is actually "pray for a miracle". (No, this is not a joke - she is really advocating this "plan".)
There are people reporting on various youtube videos (take it for what it's worth) that there is a methane bubble forming and that the actual sea floor is cracking with additional oil coming through vents-apparently this thing isn't being reported on how bad that blow out valve was. If you watch some of these videos, there is a lot of doom and gloom potential in how much of the seafood chain could be destroyed. According to the maps, this thing is suppose to be up the entire eastern seaboard by fall. Also, I did receive an email as I'm in the commercial insurance sector that there is a ton of benzine in the air at the blast site. It mentioned that if a hurricane blew through this area and picked it up the results would be catastrophic. I fear this will get much worse.
jesus christ...this is becoming heartbreaking. i am hoping for the best, but this just feels like it is only going to get worse and has the potential to be completely uncontrolled for many more months. ****ing bp.
It's official, we're f***ed. Louisiana Oil Spill Day Of Prayer: State Lawmakers Propose Religious Solution To Stop BP Oil Spill
