that sux... I was wanting to go there w/ the kids for the 4th...I'm almost afraid to book and go east to Destin, etc as IMHO, it's only a matter of time before it reaches them...It looks like I may be going to Galveston toward the latter part of July...
heres an interesting read from the oil drum. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967 Its a little long and depressing so ill give a short summary. The author thinks that the well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking oil, and these leaks will eventually cause the entire well and surrounding sea floor around the well to collapse. This will cause the BOP to fall over and will leave nothing to stop or slow down the flow oil. If this happens, its game over and the oil will only stop when the reservoir runs out of oil. Its basically a race between the relief wells and mother nature.
Oops! Louisiana cleanup crews trampled pelican nests, official says Back to the endangered species list for you, brown pelican.
Amazingly, I have not seen this posted yet... Obama gets a 20 BILLION dollar fund from BP after "intense negotiation". Wow.
So in answer to Chris Matthews criticism about how Obama had the authority to get BP to commit to fund well apparently Obama has the authority.
The President better get that cash tied up good, before BP does what my Harvard MBA friend says they should do and declare bankruptcy.
Under what grounds would BP declare bankruptcy? They have been very profitable the last few years. For that matter if they think they have it bad from the US government now if they were to move to suddenly try to declare bankruptcy the UK government would probably crack down on them for defrauding their many British investors.
For what it's worth, I am a corporate bankruptcy lawyer and the several of partners I work with doubt they will file but hope that they do so we can hopefully get some work out of it.
My friend seemed to think it was a real possibility. Not that they would, but that the way things are going, they may end up deciding it's the best option. I hope your partners have the right hunch, as a BP bankruptcy filing would be a disaster on many levels.
The fact of the matter is that BP has a lot of assets. So, I doubt the creditors/claimants will really be left with nothing. Specifically, if BP files chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (which enables BP to "reorganize" as a going concern rather than just blow the company up and liquidate everything), it will most likely be because it believes that the long-term liabilities from the disaster will far exceed it assets and will burden its balance sheet year after year to an extent that it simply could not survive viably. This would be similar to the rationale that a lot of companies with asbestos liabilities filed for chapter 11 protection. The most likely way a BP bankruptcy will go down would be (a) an asset sale in which BP sells its assets as a going concern to the highest bidder (likely another oil company, but could be anyone with the money), or (b) BP files and gets approval for a plan of reorganization under which BP sets up a fund which would at least equal to the value of its assets were it to liquidate (and there will be a huge fight over this valuation) for the repayment of all of its creditors (secured and priority creditor get paid first, but there should be a ton left for general unsecured claims). Under the latter scenario, there will likely be a sub-fund specifically set up for the Gulf Coast disaster claimants both for the payment of damages that already arise, and for the "future claimants" who may suffer things like long-term health problems that will only manifest itself years down the road (this is how asbestos cases get dealt with). In any case, there should be a big pot of money (either the sale proceeds or funds available from a plan of reorganization) to pay claimants at least what they can get if BP just simply sold its assets in a liquidation. Now, there will likely be a big valuation fight in eithe rcase, and I can't see how a bankruptcy judge will allow BP (or a buyer of its assets) off easy by approving either a lowball sale or a lowball valuation in a reorganization plan. The fact is, even if BP doesn't file a bankruptcy and pays everyone as the government demands, the disaster victims never really get fully compensated. The idea that money can make a victim "whole" is only a theoretical concept. I am sure the shrimpers would rather have their life back and residents rather not live in an oil soaked environment and suffer potential health hazards than to just get a check, even if it is in an amount that theoretically compensate them fairly. In the end, bankruptcy or not, the victims will get some sort of financial compensation and BP funds will be used to help rebuild the Gulf Coast. I really don't see bankruptcy making that huge of a difference.
A cautionary tale for the Gulf coast from Nigeria where they have endured an Exxon Valdez equivalent spill every year for the last 50 years. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37746494/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times
Courtesy of Shell Oil, whose history in Nigeria is astoundingly bad. For a similar situation, look up Chevron in Ecuador. It's really cheap to do business in small nations full of brown skinned people that no one with money gives a **** about. Poor BP obviously missed that lesson in "Cruel Business 101".
Thanks for the post. Your comment (put into my words) about the people of the coast essentially seeing their way of life threatened and possibly destroyed, and what is the surety (IMO) of health issues ongoing due to this disaster (think post 9/11), certainly is something that can never be "made whole." I deplore the choice of words. I would have said, "We can never make you whole, we can't wave a magic wand and recreate the Gulf Coast that existed before this catastrophe, but we can insure that you are given fair compensation monetarily and that everything, everything that can be done to restore the coast and the wetlands will be done." I would have prefered the President use that kind of language, rather than language that, unintended, I'm sure, gives a false impression to the people. Americans in general may believe it, but not the long time residents of the Gulf.
