The only thing protesting BP branded service station does is hurt the individual owners of these stations that merely purchased the franchise. BP doesn't actually own any BP stations. The gas they sell isn't even necessarily BP gas. It looks like there have been some hiccups in the top kill operation, but its back on track now. The initial pressurization of the well was working and pushing the oil down. They stopped to run some tests, then restarted. After a few more hours they reached an equalization of pressure. Oil had been pushed down, but had stopped, so the well had basically hit equilibrium. There was no movement down, but no oil coming out either. When they increased the pressure, the mud was escaping too fast out of the top of the well and reducing the amount of downward pressure. BP didn't want to up the pressure anymore to compensate and get even close to the upper limits of the pressure they feel the BOP can take. At this point they pulled back on the mud and stopped. The amount of mud inserted is very heavy, and for the time they were not pumping, they did not lose very much ground against the oil. This is why it was still mostly mud coming out of the top of the BOP, even when there was not fresh mud pumped in. Remember, they can pump upwards of 60 barrels a minute when they are pumping, so there is a lot of mud to blow out of the top before you start getting mostly oil again when they stop pumping. To counteract the loss of pressure out of the top they have re-mixed the mud, brought in extra tankers of fresh mud, and perhaps will even perform a junk shot to try to stop up some of the escaping mud to the top. They have already resumed operations and we should know sometime tomorrow evening how it is progressing. Remember that this is a slow push. They can't jam as much pressure as they would really like because they don't want to damage the BOP itself. They have to strike a delicate balance between enough pressure to force the oil down, and not too much pressure to mess up the BOP, and apparently they are staying very far away from the max pressures that the BOP can take. So the top kill is working...kinda. The theory behind it being able to work at the depths is sounds and proven viable. They are now just working on the right mixture of mud, the right pressure, and if they need to try to clog up the BOP a little bit. I have been told that the amount of oil actually escaping and reaching the surface has been very minimal today. If the BOP could handle it (which they don't think it can), they could theoretically could keep blasting the well with mud even if they never got it to a point to cement it. Fascinating, cutting edge science and engineering going on here. I also saw an interview with Bill Nye the Science guy where he thinks they simply ran out of mud. From what I've been told, they have three very large barges of the mud out there, and they have possibly used up one. They had enough mud for three-four days worth of the procedure, yet stopped fairly quickly after they started. So I don't think they really ran out of mud more than maybe they used up one ship, decided they wanted to remix the mud, then give it another go.
mc mark, that's incredibly unfair to Carville. He comes from an old Louisiana family. His hometown, Carville, is named after his grandfather, who was the postmaster. (google it, if you want) Carville, like a whole bunch of other people, including me, is royally pissed off about this. He's pissed off about the response. I think he has a right to be. No one is looking good right now. Supermac34, thanks again for all the info. Got my fingers crossed.
A buddy of mine sent me an email. He works for a small engineering company out of Alabama. He was working one of the 33 exploratory wells that was just shut down by Obama today. He has been put on indefinite furlough along with about 30 of the 40 people that work for his egineering company. Their well, isn't even in ultra deep water (but deep enough) and was going pretty well. The company owner thinks that if the moratorium goes longer than a few months, he will have to completely shut down. They still technically have the contract, and when/if things start back up again, he will have a job again, but in the meantime he has to go find another job. Unlike the fishermen affected, he has no recourse to file a claim. Their biggest problem is that they specialize in subsea, so its not like they can just go pick up other engineering jobs. I would also like to say that I am not just making this up to prove some point. This guy is real, his firm is real, and he's scared. This is my point about over-reaction to an already bad crisis. I sure hope that the government doesn't make it worse. One of the biggest fears right now in the Gulf oil industry as well, because of their conservative nature, and the fact that its mostly Chicago machine politicians in the Obama camp, the Gulf Coast states' power has REALLY been mimimized in the government. The local industry fear is that even if you go in and want to do regulation and clean up the industry in some cases, there is very little voice from the Gulf politicians to hold up their hand and point out that over half of the economies are driven by this industry, and please Mr. President, don't try to stop the bleeding of the oil spill by murdering us so there is no more flow. Houston should be seriously scared that their fairly good economy won't be messed up big time. There is a LOT of subsea presence here, and a LOT of people on this forum could be directly or indirectly affected by decisions that the President and his cabinet make in the next few months. For what its worth, Obama just kicked Shell in the balls today too. Shutting down a HUGE exploration project in Alaska that they've alredy sunk Billions into. The hope is that its temporary.
You are very welcome. Again, my opinion is skewed because of the job I work and the fact that I DO know people directly involved in this effort, both for BP and for Coast Guard, etc. I think one major problem that Carville and CNN, Anderson Cooper, etc have is that they don't see a lot of on shore activity. I can't speak for the direct on shore response too much. I do know that there are 22,000 BP workers/contractors involved in the clean up, pretty much around the clock, under the direction of the Coast Guard. I think one thing is that there has not been ANY visibility to the biggest clean up fight. The BIGGEST fights and operations are open water, cleaning up the BULK of the oil before it gets close the shore. The decision has been all along, get rid as much oil as possible in the open water where it is fairly easy to clean up. You can skim it, disperse, and burn it out in the open water. The overlooked fact from the government spill estimate report today is that up to HALF the oil has been cleaned up alread in the open waters. That is HUGE. They are basically going for the biggest bang for the buck at this point to minimize the more detailed clean up later (shoveling it off beaches). As for the wetlands impact, its is still very small. If you watch carefully on the news, it is the SAME wetland reed pictures on the news, the same place they go visit every day. That is the bad place for it to be in, but as of yet the actual wetland impact has been small with one or to "ribbons" of oil a couple hundred barrels of volume total has crept in. Happened about a week ago through some broken boom. The beach impact on the barrier islands has been more significant, but that's OK. Beaches are easy to clean. They could basically let it pile it up there and then go clean it up later. Carville, I can understand his anger, he's from there, needs to see the big picture though. For as painful as it is, its better for the bulk of the effort to be off shore right now. BP can't pull its resources off the open water, let the oil pile up bigger out there, then have to clean up double or triple the amount later on shore. Its better to try to nail a much as possible offshore until they plug the leak, then move in and clean up the beaches. Again, everybody keep saying your prayers for this top kill effort. I do agree that Louisana should start building up barriers where they think its appropriate. They should just do it. I can pretty much guarantee BP will happily pay the bill later if it keeps it out of the harder to clean wetlands.
I know how it goes. My dad worked in the nuclear industry and after 3 mile island it killed new plants - Chernobyl didn't help either. But who's fault is this? Is it politicians over-reacting? Or is it the public's perception that they are sensitive too? Or is it the industry which allowed itself to cut corners and become lax and by not policing itself ends up shooting itself in the foot.
Perhaps a mix of all of it. I would say that in the development of the history of man kind, humans didn't used to let set backs get in the way quite as much, for better or worse. We don't shut down air travel everytime 200 people die in a plane crash. We didn't shut down space exploration despite the fact that you basically have a 1 in a 100 chance of your space craft exploding. We tend to re-asses the situation, create new safetly rules, then move on. Yet in the energy industry (not just oil), we tend to totally over react. In Washington State, extremely clean hydro electric dams have been completely taken apart and shut down, and there are calls to take down more on Snake River by Mary Cantwell to apparently protect salmon runs. Salmon runs that in effect are already managed by special groups that make sure they get through the dams. Due to Three Mile island, and near disaster, almost no new development of nuclear power has been completed in the United States for the last 40 years while the rest of the world blows past us. And due to an oil spill, we are going to effectively cut ourselves off from our own massive reserves of oil, reserves that are actually massive enough to make a dent in a lot of the foreign oil that is imported. And from the jobs perspective, I'd like to point out that it is NOT a zero sum game. Even creating huge amounts of new clean energy jobs woudln't need to shift US jobs from the hydrocarbon industry. The oil and gas will STILL be needed in MASSIVE quantities even with huge alternative initiatives. Its not zero sum. If you shift American workers to "green" jobs, those hydrocarbon jobs don't cease to exist, you'll just export them to other parts of the world. I think the example was given about the switch board operators with telephone companies. It is not a similar situation as we can't actually get rid of the switch board operators in this case. I want people to work in oil & gas AND green energy. Double the jobs, don't net the jobs. ANYWAYS...the main point of my post this morning: Update: For the time being, there is no oil and gas coming from the well. Its stopped. Its pretty much all mud coming out right now. Over the last couple of days, it was a mix. They've pushed enough mud down into the actual well to stop the flow of oil. Now the multi billion dollar question: can they maintain it. They have to move that oil back down the well far enough to be able to cement. Its EXTREMELY slow going. They tried a very small junk shot. They only needed to stop some of the flow out of the top, to move a little more pressure to the bottom and into the well. They may have to do a couple more small ones, we'll see. The fact that they are saying upwards of 48 hour MORE tells some of my buddies that know more about it than I do that they think they've finally found the right pressure/mud mix, but its just really slow going. Again...say your prayers, keep your fingers crossed, etc.
You're right, it's not zero-sum, which is why it's somewhat ridiculous of you to make an argument based on the exact same rationale with hyperbolic claptrap like this: Please. Conspicuously lost is your analysis of jobs lost during massive oil disasters. What did we do to shrimp farming in Mexico or Vietnam?
After each shuttle disaster there has been a stoppage of shuttle launches for an extended period of time. The FAA has grounded flights after crashes. While it sucks for the people working in the industry I don't think this is an overreaction with placing a moratorium on off shore drilling until we know what happened. Consider that in testimony BP had said that the chance of this type of disaster happening was so remote that counter measures weren't really considered. Also we've been finding out that the agency in charge of regulating this industry is riddled with incompetence and corruption. Given those it seems very reasonable to have a moratorium until these things are addressed.
What they should do is try to gather stats if available on how often these blowout preventers are called into action. I mean if this is a 1 in 1000 failure then maybe the issue is just regulation, making sure these things work. we already are 99.9% sure that BP went ahead know this one was defective
There's a mapping tool that lets you move the current surface dimensions over any town. Here it is centered over Bryan... http://www.beowulfe.com/oil/#loc=Br...ng=-96.3699632&x=-96.3699632&y=30.6743643&z=7 Waco to Galveston, Austin to Lufkin.
Actually, BP didn't know this one was defective. BP has been very forthcoming with their investigation that this BOP may have been defective for one major reason: it was Transocean's job to make sure it was working. BP's technical drawings were not updated with any changes, and nothing in any reports have said that prior to this investigation after the explosion, that they knew the BOP was defective. The most likely case to come out is that Transocean was making changes and/or not properly maintaining the BOP without BP's knowledge, actually. My thought is that the new regulations from this may require one or two things. Either dual BOPs or perhaps a pre-drilled relief well. Who knows. Interesting thing I just got sent. Idea submission process is below. I can just imagine the terrible ideas they get, but it sounds like they've collected 100 or so that they have or are considering. More than 15,000 ideas on how to stop the flow of oil or contain the oil spill have been sent to BP since the Gulf of Mexico incident. Ideas have flooded in from across the world, from ordinary members of the public to oil industry professionals, and in many languages from Arabic to Russian. Each caller to the Houston suggestion line will have their details entered into the Horizon Call Center database. The database then automatically generates and sends the caller a simple form, termed the Alternative Response Technologies form, for them to set out the details of their idea. Alternatively, the form is available on the Joint Information Centre website for anyone to access and submit. The form is a valuable tool in helping the team to systematically review the technical merits of the idea, as it asks the caller to set out the materials, equipment and skills needed for it to work. After the caller completes and submits the form, it is sent for triage by a team of 30 technical and operational personnel who will review its technical feasibility and application. Given the quantity of the proposals and the detail in which the team investigates each idea, the technical review can take some time. Each idea is sorted into one of three categories: Not possible or not feasible in these conditions; already considered/ planned or; feasible. The feasible ideas are then escalated for a more detailed review, potential testing and field application. So far, around 100 ideas are under further review. Each caller receives a reply informing them of the outcome. Callers whose ideas are considered feasible will be advised that BP will contact them if, and when, their support is needed.
did you see the 60 minutes with the transocean employee from the rig, he was saying indications were the bop was defective. something about rubber chunks coming back up the pipe
Situation Status Map... provides info on the state of surface oil out there... everything from "light sheen" to "orange pancakes." http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/posted/2931/20100528_0600_Situation_Status_Map.571879.pdf
My basic response was because further up in the thread, when I mentioned that there have already been affects and job losses due to this in the energy industry, someone mentioned that its OK, those jobs will merely shift to green energy as we get rid of hydrocarbons. My point, though hard to express in writing on a basketball site, is that those jobs don't actually go away. They exist, even if we invest in green energy and create green energy jobs. My argument is that there will not be a job shift, as suggested, but new "green" jobs in the future. The hydrocarbon jobs will still exist, and if we allow exploration in the US, those jobs will exist in the US. If we do not, the demand will be filled in other parts of the world, and those exploration jobs won't be US jobs, they will be Brazilian, Angolan, Venezuelan, and Russian jobs. Rather than employing US subsea exploration technical people, and machinists, and roustabouts, you'll have Angolan and Russian techies, machinists, and roustabouts that'll then ship that oil right back over to the US for consumption. As for shrimp farming, the shrimpers that have lost their jobs have the ability to file a claim until shrimping comes back. The exploration workers who lose their jobs do not. And you fail to even see, the states MOST affected by this spill are basically getting another punch in the gut as they lose EVEN more jobs.
Then Transocean, who ultimately operates and owns the rig and the BOP should have stopped. They can at ANY time. They should have gone down and fixed their BOP and told anybody else to go to hell. They have that ability. If one BP engineer was screaming up and down to continue, if the Transocean guys thought it was truly dangerous, they can kick him off their rig and work the problem as they see fit. Those same problems with the BOP would be caused by Transocean not maintaining it as well. I would also deeply discount anything any Transocean employee says in an interview. They have a lot riding on protecting themselves. Any Transocean worker on the rig has the RIGHT to shut the darn thing down at any time with or without approval according to BP's safety rules. If Transocean's rules prevented that, then its just even sadder.
If you are a shrimper, you take your tax filings in. You get instant checks for $5,000 to $10,000 for you and your employees. They then review your taxes for the last 3 years and cut you a check. Its already happening. If BP fails to pay a claim, you then have legal recourse to sue.
you should search for the interview, the guy was pretty detailed on the problems with BOP. he also said that issue was BP Management overriding Transocean, which has been reported in other places
So what you're saying is that it's not a zero sum game, except for when you want to play the xenophobia angle in which case it is a zero-sum game, and all jobs must leave the US and go to BAD places like Russian or Venezuelan commies (rather than say, the North Sea or Canada). What about the people who exist at the periphery of the shrimping industry, do they have ability to file a claim? What about the guy at the piggly wiggly who sacks groceries for the shrimper and his family? What about the guy who cleans his boat, washes his car etc...can they file a claim? Etc etc etc. Your net math here is nonexistent. I'm not saying that we can break down the multipliers for all the industries affected and come out with a clear economic projection but it's pretty obvious that you are looking at only one of the coin.
