http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/25/oil.spill.investigation/index.html?hpt=T1 Also, I wonder what happened here: Spoiler
As I mentioned in an earlier post, this was the first guess from a buddy of mine with some experience in the rig industry. That the BOP pressure checks after the cementing were not done properly, and indications of compromised cement went unnoticed or ignored.
Why would you think that? It will cost them billions for this cleanup. And it makes zero sense considering they are drilling two relief wells.
They were probably doing a pressure test on the BOP and it blew out a bunch of stuff down the riser. One of the reasons BP didn't want to have the live feed initially on the leak while they are operating this top kill is they don't want to freak everybody out. When they blow all this mud down through the BOP they might get a bunch of junk blowing out of the leak and people might panic that it got worse.
And this is the multibillion dollar question. Once the checks were run, what additional tests, if any, were also run. Who made what decision, etc. One of the worst things that I have heard is that they had absolutely enough time on the rig to activate the BOP. They did. They got the green light from the mechanism that it had activated and everyone was breathing a sigh of relief until the sea water started launching out of the riser.
Could have simply been a methane bubble too I guess. About half of the stuff you see coming out of the feed is gas. I also know they've been testing the heck out of the well all day preparing for tomorrow. Just prepare yourself for some scary looking images from the feed tomorrow. Its quite possible you see big fluxuations in pressure as they try to slam this mud down. Its also possible that there may be an all day fight, with the oil winning some and the mud winning some to jam that stuff in there. EDIT: BP today confirmed that following detailed discussion with the National Incident Commander, Admiral Thad Allen, it will continue to provide live video feeds from the seabed throughout the planned ‘top kill’ procedure – the attempt to stop the flow from the damaged MC252 well by pumping heavy drilling fluids into it. Preparations for this procedure are continuing with the expectation that it could be activated on the morning of Wednesday May 26, 2010. Throughout the extended top kill procedure – which may take up to two days to complete - very significant changes in the appearance of the flows at the seabed may be expected. These will not provide a reliable indicator of the overall progress, or success or failure, of the top kill operation as a whole. BP will report on the progress of the operation as appropriate and on its outcome when complete.
The company advised that it could be 10 hours to two days before the success of the operation is known. Please let this work...
So is there a possibility that the leak can never be fixed and it will just pump oil until there is none left to pump?
No, not really. The relief wells, the first being most probably completed in August are the ultimate fix.
And in fact, even though they are very confident in one relief well, just in case, they are drilling two.
Here is the link to the live feed http://www.thestate.com/2010/05/21/1296692/live-video-the-deepwater-horizon.html Sorry if this has already been posted, I am being lazy today. Not a bunch happening right now, but the video is pretty good quality.
I think they are already pumping mud. You won't see much change in the exterior of the BOP, I don't think. At least, we all HOPE you don't see a change because if you see those valves shoot off, there are problems. EDIT: Watching the video is actually fascinating. I wonder what a ROV driver makes per hour.
video is a little horrifying. Watcing those plumes shooting that stuff out like that....smh http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_int...local_assets/bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html
I think that is the mud, but I have no idea. I think they are expecting MUD to blow out the top as well as push the oil back down the bottom of the BOP, however, I have no serious knowledge of this. I think it MAY be a positve thing that mud is coming out of the top and not oil.
I would think this would work better at a mile below the ocean than at the surface considering the pressure of the seawater is so great, right? *fingers crossed*
Just watched the Coast Guard spill update live. Suttles from BP confirmed that things are operating as planned. There have been no additional indications of new leaks or further damage. Confirmed it would likely be 24 hours before they know if its working. They also confirmed that all the gunk you see rushing out of the top is mostly the drilling mud. You can really tell when they back up the other ROV for the "bigger picture" of the plume of mud. It goes up in an arc and then floats down. The oil would float up. If the top kill/junk shot doesn't work, they will saw the drill pipe and try the top hat collector directly on the top of the BOP within 4-5 days. Say your prayers tonight.
