[Hoopsworld] Playoff Preview: Rockets vs. Lakers

rodmanhust · May 2, 2009

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For the first time in the Yao Ming/Tracy McGrady era, the Houston Rockets have finally advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately McGrady is only there in spirit after season-ending knee surgery. The Rockets reward? A first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, a team that swept them in four tries throughout the regular season.

To be fair, the Rockets didn't have Shane Battier in one of the losses and no Ron Artest in another. McGrady played in the first but shot just 1-11 from the field for three points in a 29-point Laker victory. Throwing out that November beating, LA beat Houston by an average of 7.7 points a game.

The Lakers appear to have the edge with home court advantage and the regular season track record but this seven-game Western Conference Semi-Finals (which start Monday night) should be an enjoyable battle between two very talented teams.

Can Houston's defense slow down the Laker attack? Can LA take advantage of Houston's thin and still relatively inexperienced backcourt?
Point Guard: Derek Fisher vs. Aaron Brooks - It's the young kid vs. the salty veteran. Fisher doesn't play the traditional point guard role with the Lakers and is hardly the focus of their offense but he has many, many years of postseason experience. Brooks is coming off a tremendous series against the Portland Trail Blazers. He averaged 15.3 points a night on 44.7% shooting along with 4.3 assists. More importantly, Brooks shot 13-29 from behind the arc (44.8%) providing the Rockets with an absolutely necessary outside threat.

Against the Utah Jazz, Fisher's numbers are lower at 9.4 points on 43.8% shooting (including 31.3% from the arc) plus 3.0 assists a game. Where Derek truly helped the Lakers was in helping to keeping Utah's star point guard on an earthy plane (relatively speaking) with 20.2 points a night on 41.4% shooting (36.0% from three) with 10.8 assists and 4.2 turnovers. Clearly Williams got the better of the matchup but he didn't dominate the series enough to truly threaten the Lakers.

Despite so many giants in this series, if the Lakers can neutralize Brooks . . . the Rockets could find themselves in serious trouble.

The Lakers back up Fisher with Shannon Brown who is a strong defender with a surprisingly accurate outside shot (6-9 from three in the first round). The Rockets have Kyle Lowry who is also a capable defender but isn't much of a shooter. While Brent Barry didn't play much in the first round, he's another option for Coach Rick Adelman at the point. LA can also turn to Jordan Farmar but Coach Phil Jackson may not in light of Farmar's recent struggles to produce.

Advantage: Lakers (for Houston to truly compete, Brooks needs to make this a Rocket advantage).

Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant vs. Shane Battier - Of all the defenders in the league, Shane Battier may be the most effective on Kobe Bryant. He's come a long way since Kobe dropped 56 on Battier as a rookie with the Memphis Grizzlies.

Still this is Kobe. On April 3rd, Bryant scored 20 against the Rockets on 7-11 shooting. March 11th, Kobe gave the Rockets 37 on 23 shot attempts. Battier was the primary defender then; he'll need to do a much better job making Kobe less efficient for the Rockets to compete. While Shane doesn't look to score often, he's hit more than one big shot through the years against the Lakers.

One of Houston's greatest strengths is that they can rotate both Battier and Ron Artest on Bryant. Between the two of them, someone has to find a way to keep Kobe at bay.

The Lakers bring Sasha Vujacic off the bench. Against the Jazz he shot just 20.7% from the field and 33.3% from the arc. Houston plays former-Laker Von Wafer who is bright spark off the bench. Against the Blazers he hit 45.5% of his shots from behind the arc. Wafer scored 20 and 23 this season against LA and could be a wild, wild-card in this series.

Advantage: Lakers

Small Forward: Trevor Ariza vs. Ron Artest - There's no way to downplay Ariza's contribution to the Lakers both offensively and defensively. Against the Jazz, Trevor averaged 12.0 points a game on 61.1% shooting from both inside and outside the arc. He was even the second-leading assist man behind Bryant at 4.2 a game.

Of course he wasn't being guarded by Ron Artest. In addition to being one of the league's toughest, most physical defenders in the league, Artest is a willing scorer for the Rockets. He's not necessarily efficient (15.7 points a game at 41.1% from the field and 27.8% behind the arc against the Blazers) but he's bigger and stronger than Ariza and potentially a mismatch.

Ron averaged 4.3 assists in the first round (tied with Brooks) but tends to be a ball-pounder. Coach Jackson may prefer to have the rock in Artest's hands, especially late in the shot clock.

Battier typically rotates to small forward which opens up minutes for Wafer at guard.

The Lakers are nursing Luke Walton back to health after a ligament tear (deltoid). He's expected to play in the series after an uncertain diagnosis. Walton, often thought of as an inferior defender, may be a better option for LA against Artest in stretches. Luke isn't quick but he's had success against some of the bigger, stronger forwards in the league including LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony. The key being . . . in stretches (and that may be unrealistic if his ankle is still an issue).

Advantage: Rockets

Power Forward: Pau Gasol vs. Luis Scola - The Lakers aren't a bad matchup for Scola. LA has trouble against face-up big men and Scola may feast from the high post. He was the leading scorer for the Rockets against the Blazers with 16.2 points a night on 56.9% shooting. While he didn't rebound especially well against Portland (6.7 per game), his hustle could lead to second-shot opportunities for the Rockets.

What Scola lacks is height. He's listed at 6'9" and will be matched up against LA's 7'0" Pau Gasol. To have success defensively against Pau, Scola will need to play very physically while getting help from his teammates, especially when Gasol puts the ball on the floor.

Lamar Odom was arguably the MVP of the Utah Jazz series. After starting two games, he's expected to return to the bench. Lamar is LA's most versatile defender. Against the Jazz, he averaged 17.8 points and 11 rebounds along with 1.6 blocks a game. He needs to shoot better from the line (just 58.8%) but was extremely efficient from the field (62.7%) and the arc (50.0%).

The Rockets have Carl Landry who could prove to be a viable weapon. LA seems to have problems with strong, athletic, shorter power forwards who like to bang the glass and cash in on garbage points. Chuck Hayes may also get some minutes in the front court despite his diminutive stature for a four (6'6").

Artest may also get minutes at the four to check Lamar, especially if the Laker forward is playing as well as he did in the first round. The Lakers also have Josh Powell if needed. Powell rebounds well and has a steady midrange jumper - though he's far less versatile than Odom and Gasol.

Advantage: Lakers

Center: Yao Ming vs. Andrew Bynum - Against the Blazers, Yao wasn't a dominant scorer but he was a major factor in Houston's victory. He averaged 15.8 points on 56.3% shooting while collecting 10.7 boards a game. Yao's height alone (7'6") is a serious issue. He blocks shots (2.7 against Portland), has a nice jump shot and hits his free throws.

Andrew Bynum struggled to find his game against the Jazz, still recovering from his midseason knee injury (torn MCL). If he continues to play tentatively while getting into foul trouble, Jackson may have to go back to Gasol as a starter.

Bynum has the size and the toughness to do the job. The question is - does he have the confidence and the leg strength to do it now?

Gasol will rotate to the five. DJ Mbenga, with his size, strength and athleticism, may get minutes against Yao despite his comparative lack of skill.

The Rockets tend to go small with Yao on the bench, especially with Dikembe Mutombo out with injury (sadly calling it a career). Considering no one else on the active roster is even 6'10", the Lakers will need to take advantage given the opportunity.

Based on how the bench played against the Jazz, height isn't always a disadvantage for an LA opponent.

Advantage: Rockets (but they'll need a huge series from Yao considering the lack of depth).

Bench: Odom/Walton/Vujacic/Brown/Powell/Mbenga vs. Wafer/Lowry/Landry/Hayes/Barry - The Lakers have the best player coming off the bench in Odom. Vujacic shot has been absent but he can be a pest defensively. Brown has filled a major hole off the bench as a backup guard. Farmar may not play but Powell and Mbenga may get some looks, especially if Yao and Scola can put the Lakers in foul trouble. It's not clear yet when Walton will be available to play but the Lakers can play Bryant and Odom at the three as needed.

Wafer and Landry are major x-factors for the Rockets. Hayes and Barry may not get a ton of minutes. Lowry will need to do more than defend since LA doesn't rely on a point guard to create off the dribble.

Advantage: Lakers

Caching: Phil Jackson vs. Rick Adelman - Both are excellent coaches but Jackson has the track record against Adelman. Until Rick proves otherwise, Phil has the advantage.

Advantage: Lakers.

The Rockets have a lot to offer. Yao is one of the top centers in the league. Artest and Battier are certified Dobermans. Luis Scola is lock-solid efficient. Aaron Brooks was terrific against the Blazers.

They're one of the better defensive teams in the league but can they score enough points to keep up with the Lakers? Against Portland, Houston averaged 90.8 points a night.

Admittedly Utah isn't a defensive powerhouse, but the Lakers averaged 106.6 a game in the first round which is right on par with the 106.9 they poured in all season.

Houston needs to catch the Lakers in Game 1. LA will have had a full week off and may not be ready for the kind of defense Houston has to offer after getting whatever they wanted against the Jazz (except for a forgettable Game 3).

The Rockets were a 20-21 road team during the regular season. The Lakers need to hold serve in LA over the first two and shoot for the split in Houston.

Houston is a legitimate threat but unless they get a Troy Hudson-like series out of Brooks (Laker faithful may remember the former Minnesota Timberwolf), the Rockets just don't have a guard who can carve up LA's defense up top . . . through penetration. The Lakers should be able to hold Houston's scoring down just enough to take the series.

Final Prediction: Lakers in 6
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fmullegun · May 2, 2009

I seriously doubt we are losing the series in game 6. I hate how no one thinks of actual needed senarios to happen when they predict number of games a series will go.

Trackwell · May 2, 2009

Great read....I think he hit it on the head. I agree with everything he said, other then giving the advantage to the Lakers in the Point Gaurd posistion. Brooks is the wild card. For us to make this a good series, Brooks needs to be scoring around 18 a game with 5 or 6 assist and Yao needs to be around 25 and 10.

fmullegun · May 2, 2009

No Fisher has the advantage for sure. He is a total douche and will get all of the calls and get Brooks out of his game. Seriously he is a huge vet of playoffs.

I disagree with the bench. Although Odom is better than anyone on our bench once you look past him, their bench sucks. And I bet Bynum is on the bench most of the time anyways so I think Odom is basically the starter.

CHI · May 2, 2009

Hoopsworld sucks

Deckard · May 2, 2009

CHI said:

Hoopsworld sucks
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Really. I thought linking to it or even mentioning the site was a big NO! around here. That's a heads-up for the OP.

fmullegun · May 2, 2009

yeah it gets ***** out in the link, unless a mod did that.

CHI · May 2, 2009

"The Rocket Guy" over there used to talk crap about Clutch and this site.

He also claims that Clutchfans only gets a fraction of the hits his site does, which is unlikely I think.

Rockets2K · May 2, 2009

fmullegun said:

yeah it gets ***** out in the link, unless a mod did that.
Click to expand...

no, the BBS auto-filters that url since it is preferred to not post it here.

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[Hoopsworld] Playoff Preview: Rockets vs. Lakers

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[Hoopsworld] Playoff Preview: Rockets vs. Lakers

rodmanhust Member

fmullegun Contributing Member

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Deckard Blade Runner Supporting Member

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Deckard Blade Runner
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