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Hollinger's Draft Rater: Who will be good in pros?

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by Noob Cake, Jun 20, 2011.

  1. Noob Cake

    Noob Cake Member

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    Really good read. Just based on PER projection alone, Kyrie Irving is a can't miss talent. PER is perhaps the best statistical measurement of a player's performance. Hollinger's projections have been fantastic over the years. Hopefully Morey has a similar system.

     
  2. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    I've thought about this a little bit lately with all of the complaints about Morey's inability to cash in for superstar talent. Looking at the list, you can see that Hollinger has Tristan Thompson rated higher than you see him almost anywhere else. It reminded me of last year when Morey said that he had Patterson rated as the sixth best player in the draft. Even Adelman admitted that he took too long getting him regular minutes, but we saw some flashes last year that indicated the Rockets may have gotten a very good value at #14.

    If he is using some strange metric that values guys differently than the rest of the league does, while it may assign them appropriate value, it may also end up putting the Rockets in a situation where they are asking for more than another team is willing to give. Not because the value is wrong, but because you are basically speaking a different language.
     
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  3. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Patrick Patterson's draft rater rating was 10.79. Good for 37th in his draft class. So, no, I don't think whatever system Morey uses is similar to Hollinger's.
     
  4. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    I wasn't saying that they were using the same system, but that he may be using a system that skews some players pretty far from consensus opinion (as Hollinger's model seems to do with Thompson). As you point out, Patterson was rated #37, yet Morey had him at #6. And after seeing Patterson play in the NBA, do you think he is the 37th best player in that draft?
     
  5. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    You do realize that stat geeks fall in love with superstars/top 5 picks MORE than average person, right? If anything, Morey's "language" makes him OVERPAY for star players and/or high picks, not trying to hardball for them.

    The only time you are correct is when it comes to mediocrity. Morey will never ever overpay for mediocrity. Because he can find them everywhere(Lowry, Brooks, Landry, CBud, Lee, etc. etc. etc.)
     
  6. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    Not saying that you're wrong (and hope you are right), but it just makes me wonder why it hasn't happened. He has stockpiled many assets, had expiring contracts and has been more than willing to move up in the draft. If a superstar becomes available and Morey is willing to overpay, and he has the pieces to be able to do it, then there's really nothing standing in the way.
     
  7. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Contributing Member

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    So Hollinger thinks the obvious #1 pick is the one sure thing of this draft? Genius.
     
  8. Seven

    Seven Contributing Member

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    Anyone willing to pay the max for Bosh is willing to overpay for players. Not many stars are available, and we've just been outbidding quite often. Morey sees value where other GMs don't, and that could part of the problem; nevertheless we couldn't compete with the deals some of these teams were getting for their stars. Just look at the Carmelo trade...Gall and Chandler is worth more to the Nuggets than anyone we can give them.
     
  9. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Wait, you're saying that it's due to Morey's geekiness that Bosh decided to play with Lebron and Wade, or that Melo decided to go to NY, or that Utah decided to take a #3 pick and trade DWill out of conference?

    That if Morey had been "conventional", history would've been re-written with the Rockets landing a superstar or two?
     
  10. Kojirou

    Kojirou Member

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    Looking at Hollinger's results ...... who the frack is Jon Leuer? I have never heard him discussed at all.

    Of course, knowing things, that probably means he's our pick.
     
  11. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    I want Greg Smith...
     
  12. theDude

    theDude Contributing Member
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    No, I understand that the Rockets were never going to get Bosh or Carmelo. And I will be on the record as saying that I support just about everything that Morey has done. I was just wondering if his "geekiness" assigned value to players that other organizations just don't see.

    As an example, if other organizations don't see value in Kevin Martin's efficiency and they don't know how to make that skill work for their team, they won't value him as high as Morey does. That limits what they would be willing to give up for him.

    You've basically got half our team listed there as mediocre. And those aresome of our better players. But their record seems to indicate you are correct. So at what point will he be able to take a couple of our mediocre players, throw in a pick or two and grab ourselves a star player? Should it have happened by now? Are we kidding ourselves to think it will happen at all?

    Again, I am not in the tank camp, and I fully support Morey's approach. I would have thought that with the picks, expiring contracts, etc. something more significant would have happened in the last 18 months or so. I am just beginning to wonder if it is a flawed system with a less-than-favorable chance of success.
     
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I think there are similarities, but I expect Morey's is much more detailed. Hollinger's draft rater does not appear to take into account past seasons and defense. I suspect whatever Morey does also factors in other players on court. Hollinger, in general, also tends to favor scoring/min too much as he is rewarding chuckers over efficient players, imho.
     
  14. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Then there's no point in trading Martin, right? So if you believe Morey's stuff is better than your average GM, then trading players Morey like - Martin, Lowry, etc. - for players he doesn't like would only make the team worse.

    So if the goal is to get players that fans know and think are really good, then you're right, our approach would not allow us to get "overrated" players.

    Well, I probably have a bigger range in my definition of medicority than you. Basically I mean any non-star player who's also capable of starting on a non-horrible team. In which case, I feel all good Rockets belong except for Kevin Martin, who I believe is all-star caliber. Not a big deal as it's semantics.

    As for trading for a "star", I already listed every single one that's available in Morey's tenure. I didn't count Lebron and Wade for obvious reasons. Morey TURNED DOWN a trade for Amare, so he could've had the guy. Morey didn't pull the trigger because he didn't want to give Amare $110+ mil. And it would've taken that contract because NY gave him $100 mil.

    So if it's just about getting a star, Morey's approach allowed him to get Amare. But Morey's fiscal responsibility, or perhaps Les' purse strings, prevented that instead.
     
  15. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    What's funny is it shows how much the league is transitioning towards being point guard dominated... I might be bias because I haven't watched much videos on Irving doing anything but I strongly feel Williams is a better pick than him... But who knows i'm not the expert
     

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