Hollinger on the Rockets' prospects for this season

Exactly! Look at the other 2 moneyball teams, OKC Thunder and Portland Trailblazers. They have a bunch of value players, but they will never go far with moneyball. It's lotto land or first round exits for all 3 moneyball teams. Spurs, Lakers, Celtics, and Heat won without Moneyball GMS. They just got marquee players.

 

This post is lousy - not only does it repeat the fiction that "moneyball" means that you can't have star players, when in fact it means the opposite in basketball, but it's dreadfully uninformed with respect to the salary statuses of the teams involved and what philosophies their front offices uses.

 

....Uh, how did they get the resources necessary to trade for Garnett? Oh right, by stocking on decent cheap players (which they got using the moneyball approach) and trading most of those resources for Garnett. Aka. moneyball wins.

 

if mcgrady suits up and is at 80% or better, this is still a 50-win team, but no more than that. remember, 50 is the magic number to make the playoffs in the west, especially considering there are 4-5 teams capable of winning 55 games (LAL, DEN, SAS, DAL, POR).

 

this is a dangerous post. someone who doesn't know better will think you know what you're talking about.

ugh.

 

They traded al jefferson and the number 5 picks for garnett and allen. Other than al it was a bunch of fillers for KG. Rajon Rondo was a great pickup.

I would say they got lucky more than being a great drafting team.

Would I rather have a great GM or a Franchise player I know what I would pick.

Even Jerry West who I consider the greatest GM in NBA history, could only do so much with the griz.

 

They traded away our only lottery pick since Yao Ming for an undervalued moneyball player. Even if Morey kept the 8th pick, he was going to make a draft mistake by picking another moneyball player in Thabo Sefalosha, instead of potential stars like Rondo or Rudy Gay.

 

Really? Yao had signed a max extension by 2005 - he was not the type of player you are implying.

Further, you're completely wrong with respect to Sefalosha, who was the guy on their draft board - but not at the eighth spot -- have you been paying any attention to the Rockets last few drafts whatsoever? Moving down (or up) to pick up the right players at the right slot is the name of the game.

 

Assuming we don't have any more injuries I think we have a shot at the 8th seed.

It's not going to be an easy season. A lot of our success depends on the growth and maturity of Brooks and Landry. If those two really show a step forward then I think we can be a fun team to watch.

But it will be painful at times.

 

Agreed. The NBA has a salary cap . No HUGE discrepencies in salaries a la Yankees and the A's of the MLB.

 

False dichotomy between "moneyball" and "getting marquee players."


If Portland, OKC and Houston are the "moneyball" teams... what do you think they've been doing with getting guys like Artest, Durant, Roy, etc. Are they just mid-level no-name talents?

Did Portland not draft Greg Oden because he's too hyped? Did Houston avoid Luis Scola because he was too successful and famous in Europe?

And what exactly is complainer's definition of "moneyball"?

Tell me how Houston, OKC and Portland are different from the supposedly "non-moneyball teams." How exactly are their internal decision-making process different?

Igonrant people posting out of their ass.

 

Not giving Von Wafer the full MLE

 

As far as I know, the Rockets are the only "moneyball" teams.

And if a distant second would be Mark Cuban and the Mavericks.

 

Celtics started 'moneyball' (with Morey) and have continued it.

Almost every team does their 'version' by valuing players. One example is the Raps' signing of Jack. JJ is a long time buddy of...Bosh. That goes into the valuation process.

 

I've read a Pritchard quote saying Portland have a guy in charge of crunching stats too, and it is part of their decision making process.

 

BetterThanEver must be Carroll Dawson's child.

All of this misinformed criticism of Morey's job to date is unfortunate. Some of you would prefer the Rockets to attempt to plug current roster holes right now by acquiring "big name" players that will come at a high expense. It might look good on paper (like signing "mar1juana" Mo Taylor back in the day), but all it will do is secure mediocrity while hindering chances at championship contention in the future.

A big point to make is that injuries are entirely unpredictable. Obviously now it's safe to say certain players such as McGrady and Yao are injury prone, which is why the focus is now on the future which will give this team a much better shot at contending long-term past 2010.

If there was confidence in the health and talent in this team to contend for a championship, there is no way Morey, Les, and the Rockets decide NOT to pay for that one missing piece. It's just that this current team is not a championship contender.

[A side note: Just because the Celtics won a championship two years ago does not mean Danny Ainge is a great GM. He was willing to take a risk (with the support of ownership) in acquiring all-star talent while hindering the future. It paid off for a year and unfortunately injuries to Garnett hurt them tremendously last year. Health: this was the big "IF" when assembling their core. I have my doubts that all three will stay healthy and be productive this year and into the next few years.

Danny Ainge was unable to sign key players (like Posey) and his big splash last year was Starbury. I personally don't believe Ainge can acquire effective talent without making a "panic" move that will hurt them team in the future.]

My thoughts about this current situation: Morey may have the most power from any GM in the league. His understanding of players' value in relation to their talent and production is the central aspect of his success. Of course that doesn't mean he does not understand other aspects of basketball and assembling the best team.

Right now this team will not win a championship. I would personally rather have the team tank and rebound (like the Spurs with Duncan, though they were lucky; and Detroit with Gordon and Villanueva, though we will see how successful they will be). I can definitely see Houston being a VERY willing trade partner throughout this season. All this year will be is an audition season for most on this roster. Knowing full well what it takes to win in the West, I don't see a point in sneaking into the playoffs to lose in the first round.

This goes under the assumption that there is rare talent to be acquired in two ways: 1.) 2010 draft and 2.) Free agency.

Most likely to occur, in my opinion: Morey makes trades this season to acquire draft picks and Bosh to Houston, which would debunk any criticism that Morey ignores star players. Plus it would give a realistic shot at contending for a championship long-term.

 

We disagree on the impact of moneyball. I say that the jury is still out. But you are right about the Tmac deal not being done if moneyball was in effect. And I'll go one step further and suggest that the 2001 draft screwup wouldn't have happened either. But I still think that Morey would have drafted Yao no matter what.

As for rebuilding on the cheap, what else can Morey do given his financial circumstances? They are stuck with 2 big non-performing contracts right now and are over the salary cap. He has to rebuild by filling in around the margins. He also has to decide what type of team he wants to put out there on the floor and to do that he'll have to commit to a coach and his (coach's) basketball philosophy. I'm not convinced that Morey has that luxury because I fully expect Uncle Les to dismiss Adelman if this team stumbles into the 30-win area. After all, this isn't LA or SA where the head coach's system has been proven to win championships which would be enough to justify making that type of commitment to Adelman.

Given Les' history of making the head coach the fall guy for his organization's mistakes, I fully expect Adelman to enter this season squarely in the crosshairs no matter what the injury situation. Adleman will be the one to pay the price for the failure of the Yao+Tmac theory. Just how can Morey rebuild if he doesn't know if his head coach will be around in 2-3 years? So again I ask: exactly how would you like Morey to proceed with a total rebuilding in this environment?

 

I agree. That 8th pick had it been made would have gone on a good player. To me this is the primary difference between Morey and his predecessor: unlike CD, Morey appears to be able to find talented players at whatever spot in the draft he's picking. People The primary reason Morey was forced to overhaul the roster was due to the complete inability of the previous regime to scout, trade for and draft good players. Under CD, there simply was no system in place to do any of this. Say what you will about moneyball but at least it provides a SYSTEM for valuating talent where none existed before.

 

Well, I wouldn't say health is entirely unpredictable - Morey has generally acquired players that can help the team win even if T-Mac/Yao are out. Before, if the two star players so much as stubbed their toes the team would take a nosedive. Now when they inevitably go down the team just keeps humming along, maybe not at a championship contender level but at least they're not totally embarrassing themselves out there.