The Lebanon ISSUE is hugely significant and has been for a long time. Iran, Syria and Israel are all involved there and it's a long story. Don't underestimate how important it is. There will be no solution with Syria or the Palestinians that won't include Lebanon.
I am not underestimating its importance, I am just saying that the way the power dynamics are laid out in the Middle East right now Lebanon amounta to little more than a proxy state. At the end of the day, Syria and its Hezbollah allies have a veto power over whatever happens there. There is no such thing as an Israel-Lebanon peace that does not include Syria first. The way I see it, Israel cannot accomplish peace with the Palestinians or the Lebanese without settling things with the Syrians first. If I was Obama's envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, I would focus all my energy first on reaching a peace deal between Syria and Israel, and THEN and only then I would turn my attention to establishing a Palestinian state. The road to Middle East peace is through Damascus, not Beirut or Ramallah.
Good post! I can't disagree with anything you said. But this election simultaneously weakens the hands Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. Let's hope Lebanon is a bellweather like some say.
Glad to hear it. Lebanon is a fun country. You can lay out by the crystal clear blue water beaches or snowboard in the same day.
As long as Hezbollah has weapons, I'm not sure if this really changes anything. I am more worried this would further polarize Hezbollah into doing something more drastic.
Being Iranian myself, i hope hes a goner...I wish that one day Iran could go back to the way it was during the Shah's rule..but sadly that doesn't seem likely.. Chilcutt
Pete, The Shah's rule wasn't all that to begin with IMO. As I understand it from a Persian guy I was speaking to the other day, Khomeinin actually promised a lot of freedom and progress but changed his tune once he arrived in Tehran? Is that true? Apparently there's a speech from him to this effect.
You are joking right? We know Ayotollah's regime is nutz, but I've never heard anyone asking for the return of the Shah either. It's like wanting Saddam back in Iraq, things may have more peaceful then, but its nothing to look forward to......
Im just talking about the rights of the people..womens rights, all these crazy rules that people follow, no free press...that is the things Iranians want and respect from around the world, which has been ruined since 1979
I liked the Shah more as well but there was no freedom under the Shah regime either, so lets not fool ourselves. I am guessing what you miss about the Shah regime is his secular rule, not his love for democracy. He was a dictator.
Rights of the people? Have you heard of the Savak secret police? These guys murdered whole families, torutured, imprisoned, and intimidated anyone who would think differently than the Shah. Or 'bloody Friday', when your respected ruler murdered thousand of protesters in 1978. He also ruined the Iranian economy, favouring mainly himself and Western alliances. (not that it was doing well before, since Britain had put your oil industry in a choke hold). These arn't things people respect. You had one extreme lead into another, it makes neither of them better than the other. Mohammed Mosaddeq was the democratically elected leader I would have thought you would have mentioned, not the Shah. BTW I live in Toronto, we have a huge Iranian community, you have some FINE women, they deserve their rights
For Iran, the adage still holds today: "We wanted to overthrow the Shah. We allowed the Mullahs to attain power, because we figured no one could be worse than the Shah."
I second this. There is this new "americanized" young Iranian female (no traditional dress) at work...too nice, ah well I'm married.
Yeah although I haven't done much digging I think this hits the nail on the head. I fear that this pattern will repeat itself unfortunately. The Iranian public seems so hungry for a change, they're not really thinking straight. A lot of Persians are very young (70% under 25? something like that) so they don't seem to know or remember much about the Shah's reign other than the "glory days" stories they get from their parents. Things weren't great back then. I think they need a real wholesale change where it's a democracy with all types of people represented proportionately (including those who support the current regime). Going from extreme to extreme won't help anything.
i agree with you on this...it is 100% true and i might have been guilty of that as well...and Iranians are sure hungry as hell for change... Chilcutt
