Accusing ric of being enamored with the boys is hilarious. He's about as anti-cowboy as they come. We'll just have to wait to see if your predictions come true. Personally, I agree with Ric's take.
pure supposition. all we have as a basis is what took place this past april and every single team, for five and half rounds, passed on henson in a draft that saw willis mcgahee and his knee go 24th overall. teams like green bay, oakland and buffalo, with their aging QBs and playoff-ready rsters, didn't think enough of henson to blow even a fifth round pick on the guy. further, teams like chicago and arizona, who had nothing to lose by taking a flyer on henson early on day 2, passed. and now, suddenly, he's a first rounder? just remember: at one point in time, henson was considered a can't-miss-baseball prospect, too. you're right: hutchinson's light years ahead of henson right now and he's still struggling. it's not like these guys can flip a switch - the vast majority of NFL rookies struggle with the jump from college. throw in henson's college inexperience and the fact he hasn't played football in two full years and he's a giant risk. imo, the texans will be lucky as all get out to land a 2nd rounder and should consider doing so a steal.
Baseball drafts have a hundred rounds for a reason. Being a hotshot baseball and being a hotshot football prospect are different animals. If you think those teams that passed on Henson would have done so had he specified that he would play football, you're just plain wrong. You and CK are underestimating the seductive power of the P word, potential. GM's all fall for it, and they're always willing to chase it, especially at the most important position on the football field. Hutchinson? he doesn't have the big P anymore, because people have seen the initial results and they aren't pretty. Henson? He's still got it, if only by default. Think of it like cars. The second you drive a new car off the lot after you buy it, it loses something like 25% of its value, even if it has less miles on it than an unsold model that is still on the lot. Henson is a new car, Hutchinson is a used one. BTW, I still think you're crazy if you think the buzz surrounding Hutchinson was similar to that surrounding Henson. When Hutchinson was a strong armed yet average college QB, did anybody say "Hey that Chad Hutchinson will go first overall in the draft someday!"? No, nobody did. Henson has a better football pedigree than Hutchinson.
I'm not really going to get into this since I know very little about Henson, or college football period, but I don't think Parcells will care that much if Henson only had potential. He better be able to perform right away or close to it. I can't remember the exact quote, but Parcells said something about potential being nothing, at least in his opinion. While he isn't the GM, I'm sure he has a little input on what players they get. Also, I wouldn't give up Roy or Newman, and certainly not both, for Henson. Even if he was freaking awesome, I'd have to thing about it. Besides, maybe Dallas can make a run after that big QB out of Kentucky. 260lbs of pure QB goodness, whatever that means. He can play WR too...really wide receiver.
it's all about the p word, as you put it (which, i have to admit, initially made me uncomfortable). the yankees don't hand out henson-like contracts to players drafted in the 109th round and you know it. he was an abject failure as a baseball player, something no one - not one single person - could fathom when he quit UM to sign with the yankees. so your contention is that henson's failing baseball career rendered him nearly undraftable, but that free of its constraints, he suddenly vaults all the way to the top of the first round? that's a leap of incredible logic, based on absolutely no evidence except that, in 2001, had henson chosen football, he might have -- might have -- gone on to be a top pick. but, again, he thought playing baseball was the easier route to success... there were ample teams in april that could've afforded to "waste" a pick on henson; teams that either didn't need immediate help, or teams that are a year or two, or more, away. hell, the bucs used a third rounder on simms. and yet, none of them deemed this seemingly sure thing worthy of even a fifth round pick. now, suddenly, those same teams are going to use a first round pick on him? a year after they could've gotten him for next-to-nothing? and you're underestimating the constricting power of the salary cap. paying out first round money to a risk as large as henson is too destructive in this day and age. again, those same people thought henson would be the next mike schmidt. it doesn't give you even a moment's pause after his flameout with the yanks about henson's prospects? that maybe, just maybe, he's overrated? throw in his inexperience, the fact he hasn't played competitively in two years and, i would have to think, concerns about his psyche after his very public failing with the yankees and i think he's a tremendous risk. no, hutchinson wasn't the prospect henson was, but he was well thought of -- when he signed with dallas, the consensus was that he likely would've been a first rounder in '99. still, what hutchinson proves is that it's not like riding a bike. parcells has been very vocal about how far behind the curve hutchinson is and that's with two training camps under his belt. i think the only person enamored with the p-word is you. henson's no sure thing. not by a long shot.
Ric, I think that your commingling of his abilities as a baseball prospect and as a football prospect is misleading, it's apples and oranges. Many have written in recent weeks (and, I concede, with the benefit of hindsight) that he was never that good of a baseball prospect. In addition, I am not certain, but I don't believe he was ever considered or talked about as the top baseball prospect, among draft eligible players. I'm not saying that my theory is entirely rational by normal person standards. However, as I was attempting to explain before, NFL GM's are not normal people and do not behave like rational actors when dealing with draft picks and future stars. Witnesseth: Mike Ditka (Williams), Dan Reeves (trading a future first rounder for Reggie Kelly. Reggie Kelly!), and any number of other examples that I am too tired to recollect. The tendency for GM's, writers, reporters, etc to hype up future stars before they play a down is well documented and plays itself out in every single sport, especially around draft time. It's just a tenet of human nature. Look, I think we've exhauseted the topic at hand. We'll see. I believe the greater fool theory will be proven correct, and that one of 31 other teams will be more than willing to fork over a first rounder, at least, for the best QB prospect, baseball or no, since Michael Vick. You believe otherwise. Only time will tell.
Gotta go with Sam on this one. There is No doubt in my mind if Henson decides to play football,we will receive a first round pick for Henson. It may not be a Top 10 pick but it'll be a first rounder. He has enormous potential and has all the tools of the classic drop back passer. Many good QB's played their best ball after the age of 30. I don't think anyone would be deterred by 2 years away from the game. It'll take him 1 maybe 2 seasons to catch up. He played at a big time program and is accustomed to big time pressure. My biggest fear is we'll trade Henson and 5 years down the road, he'll be better than Carr.
i don't know who's conceded that, but it's pure revisionist history. he signed a 6-year, $17M contract with the new york freaking yankees, who have THE best farm system in baseball. and that was after they paid him $2M when they initially drafted him in '98 out of higg school. we're talking about one of the most decorated athletes in michigan history. here's an article from the columbus dispatch: he was a big-time baseball prospect. as for comparing apples-to-oranges, i'm merely pointing out that at one point, he's already been a can't miss prospect once -- doesn't matter the sport. i know inherently they both offer unique challenges, but he was supposed to have the skills to conquer either/or. they certainly overestimated his baseball skills... if i'm an NFL GM, i have to wonder if his still raw and unproven football skills were overrated, too. if you don't at least give merit to the thought, you're not going to be an NFL GM for very long. hope i'm wrong; i hope a team is dumb enough to deal away a first round pick for him. believe me, i'm not gonna b**** about it. but i'm not getting my hopes up, either.
But don't things change at least a little if Henson is signed to a football contract. One of the reasons you don't draft him this year was because if he doesn't sign a contract this year, he goes into the draft again for next season, does he not? But once he's signed on as a football player, that risk is gone. I don't know that it traslates into a really high pick, but I do think it makes some difference because it's the difference between picking a guy who may never play (and who just goes back into the draft if you can't come to terms with him) for you and trading for a guy who is under contract and willing to play for you.
then why did no one pick him four months ago? the raiders had two first rounders and they could certainly use a young QB to groom... oh, i know -- he was playing baseball and had a big contract. well, it's not like he's recently started to struggle and the contract's guaranteed no matter what, and yet, this can't-miss-first-round talent went undrafted for five rounds. believe me, there was more to it than just baseball.
i think it would've been a wasted pick had arizona drafted henson, but a team like the raiders, or packers, or dolphins... i think whatever bargaining power you lose is strengthened by offering him a chance to step into a win-win situation - groom for a year or two and then eventually take over a talented team. no 76 sack, no 3-win seasons, etc. when you're good, a fourth or fifth round pick isn't going to make the difference in winning or losing a super bowl (and before someone throws terrell davis at me, i realize it's not absolute), so why not draft for tomorrow? tampa bay did it with simms and may have found their QB of the future. imo, if teams were that enamored with henson, i think he's worth the risk if you have something to offer him that might unsurp playing baseball.
Not a Chance in hell. This Is the NFL, where teams are built through the draft. There is nothing more valuable in the NFL then a draft choice. What was Marshall Faulk traded for?
Players in the NFL depreciate faster than a brand new car. Good luck getting a high draft choice for any player with "mileage". Marshall Faulk had 5 NFL seasons when Indy traded him. And what's the average lifespan of an NFL running back? And what is the going rate for a potential franchise QB out of college?
There were very few people who believed Drew Henson would give up baseball this season . We have 365 days to sign him or trade his rights. That's not a lot of time. Other teams passed because they wanted to take a productive player than someone who wasn't likely to give up baseball right away (especially with his contract situation). Many people, myself included, believed that if Drew Henson wanted to play football, he would just re-enter the draft next season where he would be picked a lot higher and demand1st round bonus money. The Yankees made their move when they traded for Aaron Boone. If teams wouldve known that, perhaps they wouldve picked him earlier. We took a gamble that may or may not pay off. However, that's not an indication of what Henson is worth on the open market- which should be first round material.
1. He isn't giving up baseball because a bogus radio station with 0 confirmation says so. 2. Aaron Boone is unbearably bad. 3. Henson isn't worth a 1st rounder, not now.
Teams haven't been in a hurry to pick a Franchise QB lately. You can thank the previous 4 Super Bowl Winners for that. Marino never won a ring, Elway didn't win a ring until he had TD, Montana was a very good player in a amazing system. Brett Favre and Mike Vick are probably the only two QB's who can carry a team to greatness. Marshall Faulk was coming off a near 1000/1000 season and well in his prime when Indy traded him, they thought James would be a younger version at a cheaper price, and it almost worked. If the Texans got a 3rd rounder for Henson they should be considered damn lucky.
Who cares if the Cowgirls would be willing to give up a high pick for him. Someone will.... Don't know if this means squat, but I saw a story about this (a quick blurb) on CBS Sportsline (fantasy football section). www.cbssportsline.com
RIET, if henson really was a certified, can't miss, no doubt about it franchise QB... why wouldn't a team like green bay take a flyer on him? you're not really going to argue that they were better off trying to find a productive player in the fifth round of a seven round draft, are you? come on... frankly, henson, even with his baeball situation, had a better chance of making the team in 2004. i mean, there was no risk in using a day two pick on henson if you were a team with either few or many weaknesses. and yet, he was passed over again and again... first round talent and he falls into round 6? during a draft in which buffalo took a tremendous risk in drafting mcgahee in round one? on the open market, he was worth a sixth round pick. my guess is that houston will get a 3, and it'll almost certainly be a conditional pick. if casserly's on his game, he could easily demand it turn into a 1 if henson meets certain incentives. that's the only way a team would give up a 1 to get henson right now.
Ric, Could you please e-mail me my password to your site. I've forgotten it and can't log in. Thanks Tex Trenches Kevcar325@aol.com
That's completely bogus. A QB has been the #1 pick the past 3 drafts Teams will always spend a high draft pick on a potential franchise QB. The Texans took David Carr at #1 hoping he would be a franchise player. Last year the Bengals took Carson Palmer. Potential franchise QB's will always be taken high.