Henson is a superior prospect than either Carr, Harrington, or Palmer, each of which who was picked BEFORE those twos. So, basically, what your doing is comparing Henson to guys like Kyle Boller and Patrick Ramsey, a comparison that no NFL GM or scout would ever make, they're not even close. IF the cowboys wanted a QB (and jones was ready to eat crow over carter, of course) and a guy like Drew Henson was available, they would have sold the farm to get him, as will any number of other teams. As for trade value, immobile Drew Bledsoe coming off a lackluster three seasons, over 30, making a huge salary, vs. the top QB prospect in the last 3 years? I'm not saying that he's going to be sold to the cowboys for a hundred jillion dollars, or at all. But a franchise quarterbacks come around once every few years. Safeties and cornerbacks? After linebackers, they''re about the most replaceable cog there is.
Originally posted by SamFisher Henson is a superior prospect than either Carr, Harrington, or Palmer, each of which who was picked BEFORE those twos. So, basically, what your doing is comparing Henson to guys like Kyle Boller and Patrick Ramsey, a comparison that no NFL GM or scout would ever make, they're not even close. a superior prospect 2 years ago, don't forget that. He hasn't sniffed at football since. Also don't forget Leftwich. And it is debateable whether or not he was a better prospect than Carr or Harrington. IF the cowboys wanted a QB (and jones was ready to eat crow over carter, of course) and a guy like Drew Henson was available, they would have sold the farm to get him, as will any number of other teams. good to see you put it in past tense, as in, 2 years ago. As for trade value, immobile Drew Bledsoe coming off a lackluster three seasons, over 30, making a huge salary, vs. the top QB prospect in the last 3 years? Or as in, someone whose proven he's a leader, a franchise qb vs someone who hasn't proven jack **** in the nfl. Henson will probly demand a hefty contract from anyone who wants him as well. I'm not saying that he's going to be sold to the cowboys for a hundred jillion dollars, or at all. But a franchise quarterbacks come around once every few years. Safeties and cornerbacks? After linebackers, they''re about the most replaceable cog there is. well according to that reasoning, I'm sure Baltimore would be happy to give up Ray Lewis, or Chicago Brian Urlacher, since they're so replaceable. Or perhaps Snyder will top them and throw Bailey and Arrington into the mix. In fact, the texans should only be shopping Henson for a top flight rb, since they'll surely be able to find great "replaceable" cbs and safetys off the waiver wire. Teams don't trade their stars, they trade draft picks and players they want to cast off. And in the rare occasion that they do trade a player with star value, it's for draft picks, not other stars.
Exactly. Usually, where there's smoke there's fire. I think it's just a matter of time. Besides, if the Houston Suck-icle prints a story that it's not true....it's probably true. I disagree with the people saying teams won't be lining up to take a shot at Henson. I'm thinking at the very least, we can get a 1st rounder for him. Maybe an additional 2nd rounder as well. That plus the fact that if a team needs Henson, chances are the pick will be a high. A 1st round pick for a 6th round pick? I'll take it. Thank you Casserly.
1. I have yet to see one scout or commentator who said or claimed that Carr or Harrington would have been taken ahead of Henson. I have seen many who said the opposite. 2. You're the one who brought up the past two years. I responded to your point. If Henson had said he was playing football this year and trained full time before the draft, I don't think its a stretch to assume he would have gone as high as first overall as his physical tools outweigh that of Palmer, as did his onfield performance if you compare the first two years of their careers. 3. Yes, it sucks that teams are more willing to salivate over the unproven Henson over the proven Bledsoe. But its a fact of life that they do. Aside from the pretty numbers Bledsoe put up in 1996 and again in the first half of last season, I think calling him a franchise qb is debatable. He's a classic, immobile, 7 step drop passer. That's nice but it doesn't get it done anymore. And given the NFL's CBA, I believe its impossible for Henson to get more money than Bledsoe, so no dice there. 4. To see a proponent of the linebackers as replaceable theory, look no closer than your beloved cowboys. (Jimmy Johnson was the originator of this theory). When was the last time they spent a high first rounder on a linebacker? That didn't stop them from having pro-bowl quality LB's in their 90's glory days, like Darrin Smith and Ken Norton, and many that were at best average (Dixon Edwards? Vinson Smith?). When was the last time a team spent big money on a free agent LB? Urlacher and Arrington and Lewis are great players,no question, but they're the exceptions that prove the rule. Bringing the subject back to defensive backs, Safties are arguably the lowest priortiy non kicker-position around. Look at Roy Williams, the highest drafted safety ever. Why do you think QB's are drafted first overall pretty much every other year, while I don't believe (though I'm not certain) that any DB EVER has EVER been drafted first overall? Why do you think that guys like Rodney Harrison were looking for jobs in the offseason? You assume far too much if you think Williams and Newman are stars, btw. What has either done in the NFL that Drew Henson has not? Anything? They might be someday, but not yet. You're right that teams rarely trade their veteran players. Why? 1. Because of salary cap reasons, and 2. because draft picks are thought by most GM's to be far, far more valuable, due in part to salary cap reasons and also ey overestimate their value, b/c they all think they can always draft the right guy, all the time. You can laugh all you want, but you won't be laughing if Henson does quit baseball and the Texans get a first rounder plus more for him. Which they will if he does. I'm not insulting the cowboys, alhtough you think I am. But to say that a future potential superstar at QB being worth potential future stars at S and CB is a laughable proposition, deserving only scorn and derision, is a foolish thing to say, and if Henson quits baseball, we'll see why.
I was counting Vick as the "bookend" of the 3 year period, and I'll gladly take Henson over Eli Manning, JP Losman or Ben Roethlisberger who are arguably the top collegians now.
I'd wait on it. I doubt anyone could have predicted in 2001 that David Carr and Carson Palmer would go 1st in two successive drafts. I'd bet 90% of the people you asked would have had no clue who both of them were.
nice post. I still disagree with most of it, but well thought out nonetheless. Originally posted by SamFisher 1. I have yet to see one scout or commentator who said or claimed that Carr or Harrington would have been taken ahead of Henson. I have seen many who said the opposite. I've only seen a handful even broach the matter really. I think it's safe to say that he would've definitely been in the running for the #1, but w/o a doubt? I don't think that can necessarily be said. 2. You're the one who brought up the past two years. I responded to your point. If Henson had said he was playing football this year and trained full time before the draft, I don't think its a stretch to assume he would have gone as high as first overall as his physical tools outweigh that of Palmer, as did his onfield performance if you compare the first two years of their careers. I brought up the past 2 years because if the cowboys were really desperate for a qb, they had high enough draft picks to maneuver around to get one. They had the chance to get what I think was the best qb in that draft in Leftwich, and passed. 3. Yes, it sucks that teams are more willing to salivate over the unproven Henson over the proven Bledsoe. But its a fact of life that they do. Aside from the pretty numbers Bledsoe put up in 1996 and again in the first half of last season, I think calling him a franchise qb is debatable. He's a classic, immobile, 7 step drop passer. That's nice but it doesn't get it done anymore. And given the NFL's CBA, I believe its impossible for Henson to get more money than Bledsoe, so no dice there. "fact of life"? Cmon now. Stretching it a little there. I'm sure there were teams interested, just none willing to pony up a 1st rounder like NE wanted. Kinda like there wont be a ton of teams willing to pony up a 1st rounder for Henson, esp if said teams think they'll suck this year. And I never said that Henson would get more or even equal money to Bledsoe, just that he would command a big money deal most likely. I'm not familar with the intracacies of the NFL CBA, but I'm sure if there's a way around via signing bonus or whatever, his agent will demand it. 4. To see a proponent of the linebackers as replaceable theory, look no closer than your beloved cowboys. (Jimmy Johnson was the originator of this theory). When was the last time they spent a high first rounder on a linebacker? That didn't stop them from having pro-bowl quality LB's in their 90's glory days, like Darrin Smith and Ken Norton, and many that were at best average (Dixon Edwards? Vinson Smith?). When was the last time a team spent big money on a free agent LB? Urlacher and Arrington and Lewis are great players,no question, but they're the exceptions that prove the rule. I'm well familiar with that theory, but that doesn't mean it's absolute. And exceptions don't prove a rule. Bringing the subject back to defensive backs, Safties are arguably the lowest priortiy non kicker-position around. Look at Roy Williams, the highest drafted safety ever. Why do you think QB's are drafted first overall pretty much every other year, while I don't believe (though I'm not certain) that any DB EVER has EVER been drafted first overall? Why do you think that guys like Rodney Harrison were looking for jobs in the offseason? Off the top of my head, Charles Woodson was number 1. Qbs are usually drafted first imo because you are going to have to pay an obscene amount of money for the 1st pick regardless, so might as well tie all that money into what should be the leader of the squad. Cincy would have loved to have traded down, but there were no takers because no one wanted to move up for Palmer or the amount of cash a number one pick gets. Harrison is old and the chargers defense sucked last year with him anyways, so why cling onto him and his price tag when they can bring in a younger safety to go with their new young d that will still suck, but have a chance to grow together and improve? You assume far too much if you think Williams and Newman are stars, btw. What has either done in the NFL that Drew Henson has not? Anything? They might be someday, but not yet. Roy is at least top 5 at his position already imo, and is a playmaker. Of course Newman isn't a star, he's a freakin rookie. But they have expectations of him being a star in the near future, so unless they think he's already going to be a bust, he's not going anywhere. And despite what you may think, teams are always starving for good cbs they do not fit into that "interchangeable parts theory". You're right that teams rarely trade their veteran players. Why? 1. Because of salary cap reasons, and 2. because draft picks are thought by most GM's to be far, far more valuable, due in part to salary cap reasons and also ey overestimate their value, b/c they all think they can always draft the right guy, all the time. and that's why entertaining the thought of Dallas and Houston exchanging Henson for Newman and/or Roy IS laughable. You can laugh all you want, but you won't be laughing if Henson does quit baseball and the Texans get a first rounder plus more for him. Which they will if he does. I would be laughing, because the Texans would be raping whoever they got a 1st rounder + from(unless perhaps it was a late late 1st rounder + crap), even if it was the cowboys. I'm not insulting the cowboys, alhtough you think I am. But to say that a future potential superstar at QB being worth potential future stars at S and CB is a laughable proposition, deserving only scorn and derision, is a foolish thing to say, and if Henson quits baseball, we'll see why. I did not think you were insulting the cowboys at all(I'm rooting for both teams btw). What I do think is laughable, is rationalizing why someone would give up a high 1st rounder or a player that a team invested a top 10 pick in for a qb 2 years removed from football. He may be worth that, but no team is going to dare pay that price. btw, if Henson is such a "can't-miss" qb with so much more upside than Carr, why not entertain the idea of trading Carr instead? You'd have the qb that all the scouts you read about say is better, and you'd still get a good deal off of Carr.
Why not trade carr? because of the greater fool theory. It's a bizarre element of human psychology and behavioral economics that teams value prospects and draft picks, despite the unlikelihood of them becoming stars, more than they do guys who have played a down. That being said, the Texans should be able to exploit this to the fullest.
Sam, you make great points, the only problem is trading 1 potential pro bowl player for another just doesn't happen anymore. The texans could certainly get a 1st round pick and probably a 2nd or 3rd. It would great though if they were able to acquire another high quality player in exchange for Henson just not a high probability of it happening.
Is there any way we sign Henson and keep him on the roster then feature him with some garbage time late in the year to drive his value up? We could sit on him all offseason and have people bid him up till draft time and then make a move. Renegotiation of his contract could be a condition of the trade to a new team if that's within the rules anyway. I'm not too crazy about trading potential franchise qb's for 2nd or 3rd round picks no matter what we spent on him, especially to the cowgirls.
I think Kyle Boller is gonna be waaaaay better than Carson Palmer when it's all said and done. I watched his first preseason game(Ravens vs. Bills) and he had a throw that was probably the best throw I have ever seen, and another that was a very,very great throw.
This could work, although as young a team as the Texans are, they probably need every roster spot. It's too bad neither of them are great runners. Sometime in the near future I see a team that has the equivalent of 2 Michael VIck's on their team, with the snap going to either, and the play being either a runing or passing play. Now that'd be hard to defend.
2 Mike Vicks? Hardly. Vick is so good, he didn't revolutionize the QB position, his skills are superior to every other QBs to such a degree that nearly noone will be able to follow in his footsteps. We might get 2 "Mike Vick"s in the NFL at once, on the same team would be nearly impossible.
Oh, I don't know, hasn't Ricky Williams been traded for multiple 1st rounders, twice (even before he ever played a down, the first time)? You've got to think that a comparable QB (as Henson supposedly is would be able to do the same. An let's not get ahead of ourselves, the cowboys two guys we're talking about are much closer to first round picks right now than anything else. (Again, I am not saying this will or would happen, just that there it is a plausible scenario given their respective value should each player be as good as advertised) Epiologue from a few posts up: one DB has been selected first overall, it's not Charles Woodson either, it was the immortal Gary Glick out of Colorado A&M in 1956 by Pittsburgh (though he may have played both ways, I don't know). Eddiewassnubbed, I saw Boller play vs the Giants last Thursday night, he looked pretty good.
williams' senior season made him a commodity as did his production with the saints. henson has neither to fall back on. he was a good QB with potential last time he played... two years ago. if the texans got a first round pick, i'd be blown away shocked. and dream on if you think the cowboys are gonna enter the bidding. chad hutchinson riding shotgun on the bench, trying to hold off an undrafted, division 2 rookie for the back-up QB role while collecting big coin has turned that franchise off former baseball players permanently. once biten, twice shy. and further, there's no way they'd deal williams or newman. not one chance. those two guys will be the their defense's foundation for years.
I haven't tried to lood ahead at what QB prospects are considered first-round "franchise-type" players. However, if there aren't any standouts at the end of the college football season, Drew Henson's value will only rise. The Cowboys will not trade Newman or Williams for Henson unless the QB situation becomes unbearable for Parcells and Jones. And even at that point, they would probably go after a veteran. There have been analysts that say the most the Texans can get for Henson is a second or third rounder. Depending on what team trades for him I'm sure the Texans could get alot more than that. Lets just see how the situation plays out, and hopefully Henson signs and the Texans can get something great on Cassrely's gamble.
Prepare to be blown away. Even if he doesn't sign with the Texans and they don't get a first round pick for him, he'll be picked in the First round of this year's draft. Mark it down. Read the posts above regarding the rest, I don't feel like explaining what I've gone over before. And if you think Hutchinson and Henson were/are comparable prospects at equal stages in their careers, you've been staring at that blue star for too long.
