Heat Continue Discussions With Rockets For Alston 7-25-07

Portland Dosent need any more PG's. Alston for prybilla is not gonna happen. they want wing players like Battier. noway Pryzbilla is worth battier. plus with Magliore gone, Pryzbilla is no gonna be there primary backup for oden. there keeping him.

Collison value is at an alltime high. the guy is a best on the glass. noway were getting him for only rafer.

 

Pryzbilla is a decent rebounder but he's hardly going to get any minutes now. Not with the stacked team that Portland has assembled...so like the Rockets, they might as well trade him.

 

Blazers will trade Pryz now or in February, with Frye and their Rafe getting B/U 4/5 minutes.

 

Here's the current salaries of the Rockets:

Note these are the EXACT figures and the ones that should be referenced not the ones on Hoopsyhpe.com


I am basing this on what seems fairly obvious, that Bobby Sura, Mike Harris, John Lucas III, and Justin Reed will not make the roster, and that Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, and Dikembe Mutombo will make the roster.

Then figuring the cap amount to stay under the luxury tax which is set at $67,865,000, which Les Alexander claims he wants to be the "hard cap." So then figuring the salaries to fit under that, figuring fair market value for the free agents and subtracting Rafer Alston, you get:

Bobby Sura
$1,000,000

after being cut, this is his limited salary protection buyout

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2654216

Mike Harris
$50,000

after being cut, this is the set NBA limited salary protection buyout for a non-guaranteed training camp deal

Justin Reed
$798,328

exact amount of his full salary is $1,437,500, the lowest buyout number to cut him should then be set at the league minimum, which would equal $798,328, the Rockets would have to pay Reed $854,957 next year and have it count against the cap as well

John Lucas III
$500,000

unless he is traded, this is his limited salary protection buyout, so if he cannot be traded this is the cap hit

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2654216

Steve Francis
$3,056,000

his portion of the MLE - which equals $6,356,480 total over 2 years

$3,056,000 the first year
$3,300,480 the second year (player option)

this because Scola's salary of $7,452,000 over 3 years

http://www.boston.com/sports/articles/2007/07/22/this_time_its_not_about_him?mode=PF

starts at $2,300,000, so Francis then starts at the remaining $3,056,000 of the MLE

Mike James
$6,082,776

his new salary after the 8% trade kicker added in - $5,632,200 plus the 8% trade kicker

Aaron Brooks
$972,720

Tracy McGrady
$19,014,187

Luther Head
$1,122,000

Kirk Snyder
$2,358,432

Shane Battier
$5,883,600

Bonzi Wells
$2,284,200

Feigen doesn't know what he's talking about saying $2.8 million, Wells made $2,115,000 last year, therefore he makes $2,284,200 this year

Steve Novak
$687,456

Luis Scola
$2,300,000

his portion of the MLE - which equals $7,452,000 total over 3 years http://www.boston.com/sports/articles/2007/07/22/this_time_its_not_about_him?mode=PF

this means his salary starts at:

$2,300,000 for the first year
$2,484,000 for the second year
$2,668,000 for the third year

Carl Landry
$427,163

this is the amount of the rookie minimum and what he will cost to sign

Yao Ming
$13,762,775

his real salary, the one on Hoopsyhpe.com is a year off, for references check realgm Larry Coon FAQ

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm or even

basketball-reference.com and check raises

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mingya01.html

Jackie Butler
$2,376,000

Dikembe Mutombo
$2,500,000

the going NBA rate for backup centers is half the MLE, which is $2,678,000, but Mutombo will take less, accepting the team's remaining cap amount to stay under the luxury tax, which is the same thing he did two years ago when rather than taking half the MLE (then $2,500,000) from Dallas, he took $2,000,000 from the Rockets. This year there will be $2,500,000 left over then in the cap not counting Rafer Aston, and Mutombo gets a good raise over his salary of $2,210,000 last year, and would make more than Jackie Butler.

Chuck Hayes
$2,678,000

this is half of the MLE, which is the current going rate for backup power forwards in the NBA - this equals $8,877,490 over 3 years

$2,678,000 for the first year
$2,959,150 for the 2nd year
$3,240,340 for the third year


The total salary then is:

$67,853,637


So, as it stands right now, the Rockets can cut Sura, cut Lucas III, cut Harris, buyout Reed, sign Landry, give Hayes and Mutombo what they are asking for, keep everyone on the roster except Rafer Alston, and come in just barely under the luxury tax to make Leslie Alexander happy.


This naturally means then from figuring the exact salaries and cap hits above that Rafer Alston absolutely must be traded to a team that is under the cap, and that no players are taken back, giving the Rockets a draft pick and a $4,650,000 (Alston's salary plus 100K) trade exception instead.

The best option then without question is to deal him to Charlotte for a draft pick and a $4,650,000 trade exception.

Dealing him for Sean May or any other player puts the team over the luxury tax, which severely hurts the teams revenue (a minimum of $6 million in operating cash).

Getting a big trade exception of $4,650,000 could also be very useful next summer.

There is absolutely no way that Alston will be traded for another player unless Alexander is paying the luxury tax, or unless Hayes and Mutombo are not signed, and that would leave the team with only 4 bigs, which is entirely ridiculous.

Since Charlotte needs a point guard and is under the cap, then the Rockets need to deal him so they can sign Hayes, Mutombo, Landry, keep the 15 players they want, stay under the luxury tax, and acquire a draft pick and a big trade exception.

This means that basically Rafer Alston being traded for a draft pick and a big trade exception to a team that is under the cap is holding up re-signing Hayes and Mutombo, and in fact their being re-signed is dependent upon it.

 

1. Actually Bobby Sura should count as $0 for the Rockets. Due to this:

http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#53

So the if Sura gets traded, the other team will have to pay the guaranteed $1 million, but if he doesn't get traded, the Rockets can write his entire salary off.

2. I am fairly certain that Scola's contract and cap hit this season is closer to $3 million than the number you quoted. The deal was structured so that a portion of Scola's salary gets paid directly to TAU in order to bypass income tax (similar deals have been done with other players). That's why the nominal contract amount is lower. However, I doubt NBA gives the Rockets a pass for luxury tax limit purposes.

 

Nice workup, BBall. I think your Scola number is too low, making your Francis number too high. I thought the report was $9.3 million over three years for Scola. This does not change your overall number, though, since you are splitting the MLE between the two.

Maybe this shows we will not resign Hayes and Deke until if and when we dump Alston for no return salary, which may be a longshot to pull off.

 

No, I think Scola's salary is at $2,300,000 to start because Scola's salary being structured as I posted it leaves Francis then at $6.3 million over 2 years, which is in fact the same salary ESPN reported he signed for. I know the board was arguing that it was wrong and he signed for $5 million, but looking at the actual numbers, the ESPN number would be much more accurate. I don't trust Feigen for any salaries he lists, I've been looking and he almost always gets it wrong.

If you add in the $500,000 buyout then actually the first year would be the front-loaded year, it's just that the buyout doesn't go on the cap because it goes to the other team, not Scola. But since Scola has to cover the buyout himself, it's essentially the same thing as part of his salary, he's just not actually seeing it first.

I hope that the $1,000,000 of Sura's salary will come off the cap, because then that gives more money to re-sign Hayes and Mutombo. I remember Dawson saying it would last year, but then ESPN in the link I provided and The Chronicle said he would still count $1,000,000 on it recently. But I would trust Dawson more obviously. It would also allow to give Reed a full salary and waive him and still stay under the luxury tax, without having to negotiate with him, which would delay signing Hayes and Mutombo.

It really looks like the entire salary structure was set in place with Alston being dumped somewhere to a team under the cap has been planned out, because otherwise Alexander is way into the tax then.

 

Using ESPN and Boston Globe numbers Scola started at $2.3 million and Francis $3.056 million (I did the calculation myself).

Using The Chronicle figures you get about $2.356 million for Francis and $3.0 million for Scola, the problem is ESPN and The Boston Globe usually get the numbers right, while The Chronicle in fact after checking it lately I found that they have usually been wrong (in almost every case) on salary numbers going back about 3 years it seems, and really poor in the last year.

 

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/sports/4982185.html

http://houstonist.com/2007/07/19/steve_francis_i.php

and from an article you used as a source
http://www.boston.com/sports/articles/2007/07/22/this_time_its_not_about_him/?page=3

Scola's contract is frontloaded (I seem to recall Morey saying this somewhwere to help with his buyout) and will be closer to 3.3M than 2.3M.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/bk/bkn/4967005.html

 

Don't start arguing over this.

Like I said I trust Morey more than The Chronicle, but it's semantics anyway, because it equals $5,356,000 of the MLE one way or another.

The bottom line is, and even if Sura doesn't count the $1,000,000, which is dsisputed by various reports, Rafer Alston or Chuck Hayes, Mutombo, a draft pick, and a big trade exception seems to be the issue.

I think they better move Alston as fast as they can while teams under the cap still could use him.

 

admit your own souce proved you wrong

also the only salary numbers i ever found for james including his 15% was this
http://www.startribune.com/wolves/story/1244840.html

 

Why are you arguing over this? Are you that anal-retentive? Seriously.


Anyway, The Boston Globe actually knows Morey, The Chronicle is a bunch of hacks.


Like I aid, it's a moot point, it's equal money one way or another.


Bottom line Alston is more valuable being shipped for a draft pick because otherwise the team loses the 2nd string bigs.

 

Unless you do a 2:1 trade or a 3:1 trade to unload rockets players for a big. I figure this would possibly package Reed and/or Butler and Alston for a PF.

 

But the problem is I don't see the Rockets scrub pile netting that, by that I mean a PF/C good enough to allow Hayes and/or Mutombo, and good chance both based on the cap to be let go and STILL by himself then be able to make the team better than Hayes and Mutombo combined would(is any GM really going to trade that type of big for Alston?), all for being exchanged for Alston and the Rockets scrap heap, but I do think Charlotte might send a pick and a TE for Alston.


I think Francis getting bought out changed the cap plan the Rockets had and now they either dump Alston or Les pays the tax, how many fans think Les will pay the tax for Alston? For Hayes? For Mutombo? I know Les said he would pay the tax for "a marquee player." Or that another GM gives us a big or a "marquee player" to us good enough to replace both Hayes and Mutombo in exchange for a career 38 percent shooting point guard? After having looked at the cap I don't see Morey being allowed to add salary, rather I seem him being told to dump it. So basically he would have to totally own another GM and get a high quality big in exchange for Alston, allowing, because of tax reasons, both Hayes and Mutombo to probably be dropped.


If he can pull that off then damn, but he's not a magic worker.

PG Felton/Alston
SG Richardson/Carroll
SF Wallace/Morrison
PF Hermann/May
C Okafor/Brezec


Believe it or not, if that team stays healthy which has been an issue for Okafor and May, but every team can have injures as Rockets fans really know, if that team could stay healthy they would have a real chance in the East of making the playoffs for sure. Alston actually has an NBA team that he could legitimately help.

 

not really arguing, just pointing out that your source article stated otherwise.

i agree it doesn't really change the salary estimates much except Scola's frontloaded deal does take it over 5.3M

 

But the Rockets front office should know that we still desperately need another vet power forward. You can't depend on Scola coming in on day one and just rock the league. So, I can't imagine the team just trade Rafer and not getting any players....they were trying to get Haslem, so I think they want to win now. They could have easily just traded Alston for an expiring contract, but turned down the Doleac deal.

 

BBScientist,

There are several scenarios we can end up under the tax without dumping Rafer to a team with cap space. First, you didnt mention that the tax number isnt calculated until the end of the season so moves can be made at the Feb deadline and still move us under the tax at that point.

Basically, you are saying we need to find 4.5 million dollars (Rafer's salary) to dispose of to get under and can only do so without taking a player back. However there are scenarios out there that we can manipulate to find that money.

For instance, a trade of Rafer, Snyder and Reed to Indiana for Foster and Armstrong works. Armstrong has a contract but I believe none of it is guaranteed for next year. Therefore we could cut him with no tax implications and our only intake would be Fosters 5.7 million. However, we ship out Rafer 4.55 million, Snyder 2.36 million and Reed 1.4 million (cant trade till after 8/14). That is about 8 million out which saves us 2.3 million on the tax number.

Then with Foster on board we might not resign Deke which you predict would be at 2.5 million. That combined with the 2.3 million would be 4.8 which gets us under the tax.

Im not saying we should or would do this. Im just saying we would get a player who can play backup C to minimize if Deke isnt back. Plus we do a 3-1 trade to open up some roster spots since we need to dump bodies, and we get a player who can help back as opposed to dumping Rafer for only draft picks. If Indiana wants Head instead of Reed that is doable too since they have similar cap numbers and Indy may want shooting and PG play. (Rafer is the PG, not Head).

Im sure Morey has several scenarios that are possible to get us under the cap, not just simply a dump Rafer trade.