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Have we reached the Climate Change Tipping Point?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by rocketsjudoka, May 1, 2021.

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Have we passed the Climate Change Tipping Point

  1. Yes, Climate Change is already happening to the point it will be difficult to reverse

    14 vote(s)
    70.0%
  2. No, we still have time to make changes to avert a Climate Change disaster

    4 vote(s)
    20.0%
  3. I don't believe Climate Change is happening.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. I believe Climate Change is happening but it's not a big deal and humans have nothing to do with it.

    2 vote(s)
    10.0%
  1. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    in essence the "no regrets" policy recommendation favored by climate moderates--which has been likened to the Hippocratic Oath: "First, do no harm"
     
  2. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    https://quillette.com/2021/05/01/why-climate-science-is-like-the-rest-of-science/

     
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  3. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    Climate change is a Chinese hoax.
     
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  4. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    bolded is the big question
    helluva basis for multi-trillion dollar policies

    here's an oldie but a goodie

    [/quote]
     
  5. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    I can't speak to the positive consequences as they are uncertain outside of new technology. Like I said, there are solutions that could have been implemented that would not have caused massive recession or economic loss. Had conservatives bought into the science they could have pushed for a massive expansion of nuclear energy around the world which alone could have solved much of the crisis.

    The problem is that politics are interfering with solutions. On the left you have the politics of nuclear power preventing solutions, and on the right you have the fear of economic harm driving a denial of the reality.
     
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  6. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    What you are oversimplifying is scale. The earth's climate changes gradually, over millions of years, not decades. When the earth's climate changes dramatically like it is now, you get mass extinctions.

    You may "believe" humans have little to do with the climate change we are seeing, but science says otherwise.
     
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  7. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    bolded is a religious statement. Glaciers covered most of northern North America as recently as 12,000 years ago. Climatic effects can take place rapidly.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18949-the-history-of-ice-on-earth/

    excerpt:

    Our ice age
    110,000 to 12,000 years ago

    The cool temperatures of the Quaternary may have allowed our brains to become much larger than those of our of hominid ancestors. While that’s still open to debate, it’s plausible that the most recent glacial period left its mark on our species.

    Neanderthals, with whom we shared the planet until just before the last glacial maximum, 20,000 years ago, may have struggled to survive as the rising and falling ice ate away at their habitat – although many other explanations for their extinction have been suggested. What is beyond doubt is that Homo sapiens survived and turned to farming soon after the ice retreated, setting the stage for the rise of modern civilisation.

    As the glacial period drew to a close and temperatures began to rise, there were two final cold snaps. First, the chilly “Older Dryas” of 14,700 to 13,400 years ago transformed most of Europe from forest to tundra, like modern-day Siberia. After a brief respite, the Younger Dryas, between 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, froze Europe solid within a matter of months – probably as a result of meltwater from retreating glaciers shutting down the Atlantic Ocean’s “conveyor-belt” current, although a cometary impact has also been blamed.

    Twelve thousand years ago, the great ice sheets retreated at the beginning of the latest interglacial – the Flandrian – allowing humans to return to northern latitudes. This period has been relatively warm, and the climate relatively stable, although it has been slightly colder than the last interglacial, the Eemian, and sea levels are currently at least 3 metres lower – differences that are being closely scrutinised by researchers keen to understand how our climate will develop.

    But this respite from the ice is likely to prove short-lived, at least in geological terms. Human effects on the climate notwithstanding, the cycle will continue to turn, the hothouse period will some day come to an end – and the ice sheets will descend again.​


    [/quote]You may "believe" humans have little to do with the climate change we are seeing, but science says otherwise.[/QUOTE]

    "Science says otherwise" strikes me as overconfident.
     
  8. dmoneybangbang

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    Exactly.

    More importantly human civilization is currently based around the climate we currently have.
     
  9. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    Even the ice ages took thousands of years to end - which is rapid geologically but very slow by human terms. If we had a 1,000 years to adjust to the current climate crisis we'd be fine.

    Keep in mind the last time co2 was at the level it is now, oceans were 5-30 meters higher and humans didn't exist - it was millions of years ago. It took us a few decades to put us back into that spot - I am surprised that wouldn't alarm you.


    You may "believe" humans have little to do with the climate change we are seeing, but science says otherwise.[/QUOTE]

    "Science says otherwise" strikes me as overconfident.[/QUOTE]
     
  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Houston Knicks fan
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    https://judithcurry.com/2021/05/02/climate-is-everything/

    excerpt:

    Over the past several decades, the definition of ‘climate change’ has shifted away from the broader geological interpretation. Article 1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines ‘climate change’ as:

    “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

    The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, versus climate variability attributable to natural causes. This redefinition of ‘climate change’ to refer only to manmade climate change has effectively eliminated natural climate change from the public discussion on climate change. Any change that is observed over the past century, on whatever time scale, is implicitly assumed to be manmade. This assumption leads to connecting every unusual weather or climate event to manmade climate change from fossil fuel emissions.

    The UNFCCC definition of ‘climate change’ engenders two logical fallacies. The fallacy of the single cause occurs when it is assumed that there is a single, simple cause of an outcome, when in reality it may have been caused by a number of jointly sufficient causes. Climate variability and change are influenced both by natural climate processes and human activity. A jingle fallacy is based on the assumption that two things that are called by the same name capture the same construct. ‘Climate change’ under the UNFCCC definition is a much narrower construct than climate change in the geological sense. Use of the term becomes a jingle fallacy when it is inferred that all climate change – recent and future – is manmade.

    The ubiquitous jingle fallacy surrounding the UNFCC definition of climate change introduces a framing bias. Framesact as organizing principles that shape how people conceptualize an issue. Frames can direct how a problem is stated, what is excluded from consideration, what questions are relevant, and what answers might be appropriate. A framing bias occurs when a narrow approach is employed that pre-ordains the conclusion to a much more complex problem. The narrow framing of climate change as manmade global warming has marginalized natural climate variability. This narrow framing also dominates our understanding of the relationships of humans and society with climate. An assumption is made that future climate change is controlled by the amount of manmade greenhouse gas emissions. Regional causes of climate variability, their impacts and their local solutions are marginalized by the assumption that the causes of climate change and its solution are irreducibly global.
    more at the link
     
  11. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Hope is on the horizon in the NBA draft.
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    Watch David Attenborough's documentary A Life on Our Planet. I trust his opinion more than anyone else. Nobody has seen the changes he has first hand. The documentary has some great footage, charts, and insight.
     
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  12. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member
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    How is "natural climate change" different from "natural climate variability"? If they are the same, then I don't understand the argument she is making.
     
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  13. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Attenborough's Documentaries have become more and more depressing.

    I think that series you mentioned has a shot of a polar bear swimming in a sea of nowhere, presumably because all the ice has melted.

    Humans gonna keep devouring the world...
     
  14. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    Whew. Judith Curry sighting -- was getting a little concerned, TBH. ;)
     
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  15. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Hope is on the horizon in the NBA draft.
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    This isn't a series. It's a film. No, I don't think there was a polar bear scene. This one shows old films when he started his career, then much more about change, with charts and data, and his viewpoints.
     
  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    The series I saw is called Our Planet. It's on Netflix.
     
  17. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Hope is on the horizon in the NBA draft.
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    That's a different one. This is the one I'm talking about.

     
  18. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    ^Yeah, posting it in case people are wondering what that polar bear scene was.
     
  19. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    Honestly its hard to watch any documentaries on the planet anymore. You either believe climate change is happening or you don't. And if you believe it, its hard to watch this and just feel like humanity is incapable of mustering the courage and will to deal with this.

    Watching yet another documentary does nothing for me. I already believe in climate change, I support major legislation to deal with it but I know that nothing will come of it. None of the proposed reforms (including the Paris targets) are enough at this point. Watching these documentaries is just self-flagellation at this point.
     
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  20. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    You generally know what the ending for all the cute animals are
    they all die
     

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