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Has Morey found a taker(s) for Jeremy Lin? (Speculation on possible deals)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by basketballholic, Jun 5, 2014.

  1. basketballholic

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    Putting this in a seperate thread because I happen to believe that trading Lin in the right trade is the most important key to this off season and our team moving forward towards competing for a championship. It has to be done in order for us to bring in a third great player and build the team out after that. And up until now Morey has not been able to get the deal he needed for Lin to move forward with building this team out. It almost came this last December but the other team backed out at the last minute.

    Now, I believe Morey either:

    1. Has at least one deal in the bag for Lin (and Asik/Dmo/Jones) that he will do...and possibly more than one.

    or

    2. He wants to convince the league, the other GMs, and the players and agents that he has a deal for Lin (and Asik/Dmo/Jones) even if he really doesn't.


    Ask yourself this question, "Why would Morey let the rumor float that he is planning on not exercising the team option on Chandler Parsons thereby making him a restricted free agent when he really wants to keep Parsons while moving Lin and Asik out for that max free agent?"

    Now, keep in mind, Morey hasn't actually done this yet, he's just floated a rumor out there. And yes, the rumor had to come from Morey. Who else is going to make that decision and who is going to let it leak besides the decision maker himself? Morey has no reason to tell anybody (even the rest of the front office) what his intentions are regarding Parsons' contract at this point unless it accomplishes something for him. Make no mistake. That rumor came from him and it has intent. There's a reason why he floated it out there. So...why did he float that rumor that may or may not happen?

    The reason isn't because he's planning on trading Parsons for some asset to flip for Love or some other superstar. He's not. Contrary to what a lot of people think all the talk about Parsons being on the trading block...is just talk. Parsons can't be traded if he's restricted unless it's a sign-and-trade some time after the July Moratorium. And he can't be traded at all for a year if Morey matches a signed offer sheet after the July Moratorium. And Parsons can't be signed-and-traded to the Knicks for Melo because the Knicks are about $13 million above the projected apron right now and will be approximately $10 million above the projected apron for 2014-15. So you can cross Parsons off going to the Knicks. It's basically impossible. And there's no way Parsons accepts a sign-and-trade to the TWolves. And it's simply unrealistic to expect that Parsons can generate a lottery pick in a sign-and-trade or even in an outright trade if we exercise the option. Guys, no lottery team is going to give up a lottery pick for one-year of Parsons.

    The reason why Morey leaked that they are going to make Parsons restricted is to send the signal to the Knicks and Melo and the Heat and James and Bosh and Dallas and Dirk that he has a deal or deals in place for Lin and Asik and Jones and DMo that will allow him to create close to $20 million of cap space to sign a max (or near max) salary free agent. Why does he want that out there? So that he can get guys to the table of course. He can find out what possible free agents from among Lebron, Bosh, Melo, and Dirk are willing to walk here for a contract starting at close to $20 million per season and he's trying to get the GMs like Phil Jackson (and Flip Saunders and possibly Pat Riley or Donnie Nelson or even someone else) to the table to work a trade if he can convince one of them that he is coming after their player and that player wants to come here.

    Let's start with the cap:
    With Howard, Harden, Beverley, Parsons' qualifying offer, Canaan, and Daniels option exercised, and throw in 6 minimum salary slots ($507,336 each) we have a total cap of $44,632,468. If the actual 2014-15 cap comes out to at least the $63.2 million that the league is projecting, that leaves $18,567,532 to sign a max free agent with. But here's a little trick. If indeed we don't exercise Parsons' option and we go into July with the qualifying offer, we can rescind that qualifying offer before July 23 and Parsons cap hold goes down from $2,875,130 to $1,760,350 which would mean we would have right at $19,682,312 to negotiate with a free agent and also be able to simultaneously negotiate a long-term extension with Parsons. When the qualifying offer is rescinded before July 23, the team still retains Birds rights. So this could essentially be done simultaneously. If the Rox want to not exercise the option on Daniels (assure him a pay raise by promising him a slice of the Room MLE so he doesn't sign a minimum salary deal elsewhere) and the cap goes up to $63.2 million, then they can essentially create $20 million for a starting salary for a free agent.

    The whole key is clearing the cap to sign the free agent and knowing before June 30th (when Morey has to actually exercise Parsons option) whether a free agent wants to come here. (And it could be that Morey has already gotten wind that some player is ready to come here.) And Melo (and James and Bosh) has to decide whether or not he's opting out by June 30th. So, Melo can send a definite signal back by telling PJax he is opting out and wants to leave and join the Rockets.

    So, if that happens, then the environment is set for possible trade talks to begin and be consumated BEFORE the July moratorium with Melo opting in as a condition of a trade to the Rockets and us then exercising Parsons option to play out the 4th year of his deal. Why is that important? Several reasons:

    1. It allow us to get Melo here without us having to clear out everybody. We can probably manage to keep at least one of DMo/TJones plus all the minimum salary guys (Daniels, Canaan, Covington) instead of releasing one or two of them and Hinkie (or somebody else) immediately picking them up.

    2. Melo then has one year left on his deal and is a free agent after that. We can still play in 2015 free agency for either him or Love or Aldridge if one of them wants to come. Not to mention other possible Miami free agents if they opt-in for 14-15.

    3. It keeps us over the cap and gives us the regular MLE to use (Llull??) for 14-15.


    So, in summary if we can get a trade using Asik/Lin/Jones/#25 for Melo (or James or Bosh) before July 1st, with Melo (or James or Bosh) opting in that is the "ideal" scenario.

    And the agitator to this happening is teams thinking we have deals to clear cap to sign a max player and max players thinking we've already got another max player wanting to sign here so they have to move quickly and distinctly to let us know they want to come here. This is not a case of Morey trying to confuse people. It's a case of Morey trying to sell other teams and players that he has deals in place and is comfortable to let Parsons go through restricted free agency because he's going to clear cap going into the moratorium and getting a free agent max contract (or near max contract) agreed upon during the moratorium along with getting Parsons extension agreed to.

    --------------------------------

    So, with that in mind, it's time to look at possible destinations for Lin that would possibly take him without sending back salary or by sending back a salary that can be swallowed easily with Asik going to a different team for no incoming salary. Here's my thoughts on that.


    1. Sacramento Kings - Kings are flush with cash from new ownership. They're looking to make a big splash. They're willing to trade for Love without any guarantees. And they need a point guard playmaker and a huge gate draw. Sacramento also has enough expiring contracts in Jason Terry, Derrick Williams, Travis Outlaw, Quincy Acy, and Reggie Evans to go along with Ben McLemore and #8 to take back both Kevin Love and Lin. Not only that but we could throw in #25 to Minny to help Love get to Sacramento.

    Derrick Williams can either be traded back to Minnesota since they may want a shooting PF along with the other parts or he could be traded here and Morey peddles him off with Asik. Morey almost had a deal for both Asik and Lin in December. A deal for Asik and Derrick Williams is less salary for a team to swallow to get Asik and his birds rights.

    And the market for Asik is multiple teams. Utah, Philly, Boston, Atlanta, possibly Denver, etc.

    2. Milwaukee - They need a primary playmaker and a gate draw big time. And they're sitting there with Ilyasova basically dead money for them. Ilyasova may be able to be flipped to MInnesota as part of a Love trade to Sacramento. Or Ilyasova may be more easily pedaled to a team like Utah along with the #25 for nothing back since Utah needs salary, and they aren't a free agent destination, and they really need to spread the floor around Favors.

    3. Detroit - They need a playmaker. Jennings isn't going to work with SVG. And they have cap space to swallow Lin's contract and still re-sign Monroe. Lin, cash, and #25 for nothing?

    4. Brooklyn? Deron Williams to Detroit, Lin and Josh Smith to Brooklyn?

    5. Philly - Granddaddy deal. Asik/Lin/Jones/DMo/#25 to Philly for nothing. Sign Melo. Done. Philly needs the salaries anyways. They want Asik long-term. And they could possibly flip Lin at the deadline for another asset. Also they could package up some combination of assets including MCW, #25, #10, and possibly one or both of DMo/Jones to Orlando for #4 so they can pick up both Exum and Wiggins in the draft.

    6. Indy - another team in need of a playmaker alongside PG. Stephenson played his way down to the dumb-dumbs I knew he had in him. I really don't think Bird wants the long-term risk of Stephenson but he'd like to get value for him. We could potentially help Indy remake their backcourt. Lin to Indy. A re-signed Stephenson somewhere for a pick. That pick, #25, and George Hill to Orlando for Afflalo to Indy. Indy winds up with Lin and Afflalo alongside George, Hibbert, and West. We clear Lin.

    If Morey knows he's got a taker for Lin (we already know we can move out Asik/Dmo/Jones/#25 for nothing) and he also knows a max free agent wants to come here....then he's got leverage to negotiate a trade involving Asik/Lin and a few of the other assets and possibly get that trade done prior to July 1 with a player like Melo opting in on a 1-year deal where Morey can play in 2015 free agency if Melo decides he wants to skip to the Lakers or if it simply doesn't work out and one of Love or Aldridge actually decide they want to walk here in 2015.



    We are not trading Parsons.
     
    #1 basketballholic, Jun 5, 2014
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2014
    3 people like this.
  2. lucnguye92

    lucnguye92 Member

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    TL;DR, we can finally trade Jermy Lin?!?! Oh Happy Days!
     
  3. haydenfisher342

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    Lin + our first round to Toronto, for 2014 20th pick and the 37th pick.
     
  4. ForTheWinYes

    ForTheWinYes Member

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    Golden State has been desperate for a playmaker to backup Curry in the mold of Jarrett Jack. They have a TPE that can fit Lin's cap hit. They're willing to spend. He's a very popular player there.

    The Warriors are the best fit.
     
  5. basketballholic

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    Don't think Toronto would do that.
     
  6. basketballholic

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    A possibility too.
     
  7. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Considering he's probably been shopping him since the minute we acquired Harden I think he knows exactly who would be interested and what he could get in return.
     
    1 person likes this.
  8. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    Morey's not going to give up a single asset to move Lin unless he has a FA signing in mind. Lin+whatever it takes to get rid of him > capspace we can't use anyway. Just getting rid of Lin's salary doesn't improve our cap situation at all, because capspace < MLE is worthless.

    Lin is in the same position as TRob last year. The Rockets are only moving him if our FA target is a lock to come here.
     
  9. Raven

    Raven Member

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    I expect the Rockets are going to have to package their first round pick with Lin in order to get rid of him.
     
  10. basketballholic

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    That's my point. He's either got a deal for Lin or he wants teams and max players to think he's got a deal for Lin. That is the reason why he put the rumor out that we aren't going to pick up Parson's option.
     
  11. NotChandlerParsons

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    Oh man Warriors fans would hate us even more than they already do for owning their souls the last two years.

    I hope it happens.
     
  12. haydenfisher342

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    I don't get how lin isn't worth a high first, guy cab blow up in the right system
     
  13. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    Considering the amount of morons around the league thinking Lin is a superstar that is being hindered by McHale, I would gladly give them Lin and laugh when their team crashes and burns due to unnecessarily risky playmaking from Lin.
     
  14. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    Time and time again we've seen teams miss out because they haven't moved "X" player. Teams have no leverage or are shut out of talks until they do so.
     
  15. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    If they are going to (likely) lose Lowry in free agency they might be inclined.

    If he anything Lin revenue keeps their franchise afloat and Toronto is a very big multi-cultural city with some of the best Asian food resturants in the world. Jeremy Lin would be happy. Drake would be happy. Win Win if you ask me.
     
  16. ForTheWinYes

    ForTheWinYes Member

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    The Rockets weren't shut out from Dwight Howard despite not having the cap space to sign him. In fact, they signed him.
     
  17. Rox23

    Rox23 Member

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    Wow, OP has WAAAY too much time on his hands. These little fantasies about removing Jeremy Lin are all too familiar and borderline r****ded. Everyone has an opinion about what Morey might be thinking. I think right now Morey rather is thinking about how great the Spurs are with their cache of great role players, and how having THREE stars in the starting lineup at the expense of a bench might in the end be not such a good thing.
     
  18. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    Would do it in a second. Asik's return could and should land a pick higher than 1.25 anyways. Think about the Spurs dealing George Hill for Kawhi Leonard and how poorly NBA GM's evaluate talent and value the draft now a days.
     
  19. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    "X" are players with negative trade value.
     
  20. Chamillionaire

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    Who would be dumb enough to pay 30 million for Lin and Asik? Asik is a good player along the lines of Chandler, Bogut, Jordan so 15 million is a little more than his worth, but 15 million for Lin? I'm not seeing it. We're gonna have to include a pick and a few sweeteners for someone to trade for Lin.
     

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