Harden - and how to build a championship team around him

A Battier type of leader won't cut it in Houston. We need a Super Mario Elie.

 

ok, got you.

do you have some names for the candidates? esp. for pg and sf.

 

this might be the exact opposite of what i said

 

I understand your logic but I think that you are making some assumptions that aren't true.

No team has a single guy do everything (that includes Houston). Harden consumes 32% of the possessions when he's on the floor. That leaves almost 68% of the possessions for others while Harden is on the floor and all of the possession while he's off the floor.

Our problem isn't that there's not enough possessions to go around. The problem is who is consuming those possessions for us. Westbrook has a usage over 32% and Durant is still able to have a usage of 29.5, Kanter 22.5, Waiters 17.5 and Ibaka 17.5. Likewise, Lebron's usage is 31.4 and Irving's is 29.3 and even Love's is 23.0.

When the ball isn't in Lebron or Westbrook's hands it's still in the hands of players that can create for themselves or others. When the ball isn't in Harden's hands then it's in the hands of Smith (24.9), Thorton (24.1), Jones (19.6), Howard (19.1) and Brewer (17.8) and Ariza(16.1). That's a huge difference.

You are also assuming that Ariza, Beverley and Howard are all still very good defenders. So far this year that isn't true. All three have been average to below average. That means that you aren't truly surrounding Harden with very good defenders and it also means that you have players in your starting lineup that are average to below average on both sides of the ball.

 

PG: Hill, Galloway
SF: Ariza is fine, obviously Durant. Barnes will do, Batum. There are more options at sf than pg but all of them will be hard to acquire (meaning gonna cost assets).

Kanter often comes off the bench and the OKC coach doesn't stagger the minutes and often Durant and Westbrook are together on the bench while the others play which changes the usage you see, compared to more....rational coaching approaches.
Also 17% that Ibaka and Waiters have is roleplayer territory nothing more nothing less. Even at almost the low end of roleplayers who actually play much.

As for the Rockets Arizas, Howards, Brewers and Jones usage is roleplayer and Smith and Thornton is not.

 

I'd take either as coach. Hell, why not both?

 

It's not Harden. It's the culture of the team. They're so disjointed and they don't care. We need a top down rebuild if we're going to compete against the Warriors. This goes far beyond analytic's.

 

Correct DD. There are stats that show number of dribbles, and how much time the player has the ball in his hands. (harden if I remember correctly is in top 5 in almost all categories).

And btw one basic mistake that aelliot has done is that the amount of usage doesn't add up to 100% in reality. It's more.

 

Per is only an offensive stat. It was for comfort , just one step more than the boxscore. It's useless nowadays. It doesn't account for defene at all.

But USG matters. Basically like this
1) a simple roleplayer's usage is > or = 20
2) a star's usage who is not extremely ball dominant is around 25-27
3) a very ball dominant star who does a lot of iso is over 30.

You can't fit in the same lineup many players with high usage because there is only one ball.
USG helps to judge players. If a player has high efficiency with small usage, you take it with a grain of salt, and wait to see how he will be able to handle more usage. ALMOST always his efficiency dips. (example Barnes has very very low usage. That is a red flag how he will be able to handle a second or even third banana role in a new team.).

It also helps to judge how a pointguard will fit. For example someone like Shroeder has an extremely high usage. That means that he will be HORRIBLE next to Harden. Same with Oladipo. Because of those players NEED the ball on their hands.

To find a good pg fit next to Harden look for low usage pgs with good shooting numbers and able to play defence.

A low usage for pgs is around 20.

This ofc doesn't tell the whole story but it's a good indication to evaluate future fit, and progress of a developing player.

 

Good god....

 

its such a shame how limited the list of players at the other guard position technically would be a "fit" next to him

 

Harden is only a Durant attractant at this point.

 

i think too many of you look too much into the "technical" side of things, esp. focusing just on one side of the ball.

what about defense? unless we can somehow make harden play decent defense, and keep it that way consistently,,, "build a championship team around harden" is just a dream, or trying to fit a round peg into a square hole kinda thing.

btw, can someone tell me what are the good stats to look for when measuring one's defense? wanna learn sth.

 

That's the problem. Role players in the starting lineup are consuming a large number of possessions. Durant and Irving both play heavy minutes and have a usage just under 30. They are able to play with ball dominant players (Westbrook and Lebron) so why can't the same be true with Harden?

People seem to think that Harden has the ball 100% of the time. There's plenty of possessions for others. The problem is who takes those possessions? The good teams have secondary options, we don't. Curry is ball dominant (as he should be) but when the ball isn't in his hands they have Thompson and Green.

When Lebron went to Miami, Lebron and Wade both had usages of over 31 and Bosh still had a usage of 23. You don't get much more ball dominant than Lebron and Wade back in 2011 and they were able to play together. So why is Harden any different?

Look at the 2nd and 3rd highest usage guys for most good teams and compare them to their counter part on the Rockets. It isn't pretty.

 

DD...

YOU ARE SO CORRECT!!!!!

Everyone wants to post this stat and that stat... Not true unless you show a stat... It gets ridicules...

If stats are so great then this team would have 3 championships already since this team was built on stats...

Stats are the main reason this team is in the situation it's in now... No coach... No chemistry.. No system and no future...

Sometimes you need good ole basketball knowledge on what you see and feel for the players and the game...

T_Man

 

Usage is not garbage.

PER is pretty useless however.

 

ofc you look at defence. Defence is a prequisite (spelling?) for a pg next to Harden. Not only just defence, but the pg has to be versatile enough and long/big enough to be able to guard sgs.

Look what I posted above:
Low usg, good shooting and good defence.

For good defensive stats on guards unfortunately the public data is very very little.
Unless you have vantagesports subscription.
For bigs the rim protection stats are very reliable and good indication of both rim protection, shot blocking and most important positional defence, but they only matter for c, pf and combo bigs (like DMO for example).

 

Not top 5 in any of them actually.

13th in touches per game at 83.6. Wall leads the league with 99 per game

15th in time of possession per game at 6.2 minutes. Lillard leads the league at 8.2

86th in dribbles per touch at 3.8. Jackson leads the league at 6.24 dribbles per touch.

49th in seconds per touch at 4.47. Jackson leads the league at 5.99