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Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Doc Rocket, May 10, 2013.

  1. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    At that price, Horford seems about right, it's not really fair to him at all to put him in line with Anderson, Johnson and Millsap.
     
  2. munco

    munco Member

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    Doc Rocket has had some epic threads but his post basically just reads as if he really wants Dwight in Houston and came up with reasons why it would happen. Basically a homer post that doesn't really seem to look at reasons he wouldn't sign with us.
     
  3. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

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    I thought Doc covered a lot of the main points really well that discounted mant of the reasons why Dwight wouldn't sign with us.

    What reasons would Dwight NOT SIGN with us that Doc did not cover?
     
  4. Mr Chuck Norris

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    But we do have one thing that LA or ATL has...a (HEALTHY) superster wingman
     
  5. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    Thread has carried a lot of insightful analysis in one spot.

    Everyone wants more, but it's still a loooong way to go before any player can even sign on the dotted ink.

    With facts changing left and right, enjoy the show and trust in a respected Clutchfan who has contributed more on here than entire years worth of members to deliver.

    Hell, it's bringing good material that isn't about JLin or its attached drama.
     
  6. rezdawg

    rezdawg Contributing Member

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    More is better than less because if stuff is not less...if there is more less stuff then you might, you might wanna have some more and your parents just dont let you because there's only a little bit. We want more, we want more, like, you really like it, you want more.

    Sorry, just saw the AT&T commercial. :grin:
     
    1 person likes this.
  7. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    In my book of building a championship team, everyone on that list is overpaid, except for bolded Bosh (maybe JSmoove too). They are not the center pieces to built, and you don't pay that kind of price for them. Some massively overpaid. Teams with those contracts will be struggling to contend under the new CBA.

    Teams are better off without those contracts!
     
  8. 11Rox4Life3

    11Rox4Life3 Member

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    could you tell me why you don't think horford is a 12m per year guy? what does he exactly lack in terms of his game?

    why is bosh 5m more per year better than horford?

    both are moreso PFs, that play lot of center.

    horford scores on a 56% ts, with a 15.7 trb%
    bosh scores on a 59% ts with a 12.6 trb%

    both have the same PER. they have the same .efg%

    the hawks as a team were even ranked 10th in drtg, while the heat were ranked 9th. i mean, we could obviously say bosh's stats would be higher as the 2nd/1st option, more like the 20 ppg (the same thing horford did post AS-break)? That still doesn't excuse bosh's lack of rebounding.

    i mean, just so i can get this straight, your argument is this:

    because ryan anderson, amir johnson, and paul millsap make less money than him

    and that

    love/lma make 2m more (increasing)

    that horford is overpaid?

    what makes anderson, amir and millsap similar caliber or better players than horford? you still haven't addressed that, either.
     
  9. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    Most of role players (Horford) plays right around their values. Under the current CBA, you can't win if role players fill up most of your cap space. The reason is simple; it takes players who play way above their contract to win championships.

    The players who play way above their contracts? Superstars!

    You can fill out a roster full of Horfords, McGees, Jeffersons, and you will have a team constructed that is worth right around cap value. The more you acquire those players, the more you are stuck with mediocricy.

    If this league is without superstars and every player plays at his contract value, every team has about 1/30 chances of winning the title. But that's not the case and this is the league of superstars, and even at max contracts, they play above their values, some slightly above it, and some way above it. LeBron is easily worth $50M on the floor. How can you compete if all your players are playing at their contract value and cap is at $60M?

    A team without superstars has little to no chance of winning. Al Horford is not a superstar and by playing at his contract value, which is 20% of the team cap, to me, is overpaid. It makes more sense to save cap for superstars, and whatever is leftove. fill it w/ cheap role players.
     
  10. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    The Miami Heat for example is a $135m roster being paid $85m, not only Lebron massively underpaid relative to his worth (Wade and Bosh are worth a bit more as well), but their roleplayers take less than their worth to win rings. The Lakers on the other hand really only have one player worth more than his contract, when recovered, Dwight is probably worth about $30m, and a lot worth a lot less, they're a $70m roster being paid $100m.

    That's what we're competing against.
     
  11. 11Rox4Life3

    11Rox4Life3 Member

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    why is horford a role player tho??

    he's no superstar. but he's an all-star player.

    he averaged 17/10 with good d. he was the best player on a hawks team that was 42-32 with him in the lineup. the hawks went 2-5 without him. last time i checked a two way big man that can rebound and defend while being the best player on his team that wins 56% of their games with him in the lineup are not just categorized as role players.

    and reiterating, horford was even better post all-star break, averaging roughly 20 ppg with 11 rpg on over 55% from the field. he's one of the best mid range shooting bigs in the league. he has a back to basket game, and he's also a good passer. is that really a role player to you?

    i mean, let's look at him in a comparison with LMA who you brought up. he rebounds better (higher trb%, 15.7 to 14). he also scores more efficiently (56% ts to 53% ts). they have similar PER's (20.4 to 19.8). horford has a 6% better .efg%. horford also has a higher individual ortg, and better individual drtg. horford has more win shares by a good margin (similar ows, better dws).

    lma post as break was 21/9.5 on 49%. horford did 20/11 on 55%.

    i understand lma has more defensive attention...but how is LMA an underpaid SUPERSTAR, while horford is an overpaid role player...when the stats would arguably point to horford being on his level, if not better. and horford didn't do his stuff on a crap team either, in fact, he did it on a decent playoff team.

    do you think the grizz would be better for now and the next two years with amir johnson than zbo?

    i dunno man. you aren't convincing me that horford is just a role player. you're just stating it like it's fact.
     
  12. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    I don't have the RAPM for 2013. The guy who keeps track of it was hired by someone and stopped providing data for this year. Previous years.
    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/

    Al Horford does not impact the game like LMA. Here another stats called Individual Player Value (IPV) Rankings:
    http://talkingpracticeblog.com/

    You can go through many advanced stats and player ranking, and no one will have Al as a top 30. Anyone outside of top 30 is easily acquired by trade or FA's.

    Grizzlies' success this year is mainly due to Marc. Not counting the playoffs, if you replace ZBo with Amir Johnson, Grizzlies might even win more games in the regular season.

    Go ask Raptor fans, and they will tell you Amir was easily their best player this year.
    http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1243876
     
  13. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

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    That's fine. You can argue Al Horford is an All Star... rarara.
    But its unlikely he will be playing for Houston next season because...

    1) Hawks will never let him go, he is their cornerpiece.

    2) He has 2 years left on his contract.

    3) Howard is our number 1 target and Smith is his friend

    4) Smith is a free agent that wants out of Atlanta

    5) Hawks already tried to trade Smith for Asik/Parsons.
     
  14. 11Rox4Life3

    11Rox4Life3 Member

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    im aware of their rapm, and also do agree lma is better but i dunno if the gap is that lma is an underrated superstar while horford this year was a glorified overpaid role player. i'd have to go through a list, but maybe one could argue he's around top 30-35.

    and i already posted that im a fan of amir and know his value with his +/- stats this year. especially since zbo had a mediocre regular season...but i was moreso talking playoffs, which you said to discount (which i don't think we can do so easily, it IS the playoffs after all). and yes, i agree it was cuz of marc, i think he's been a top 10 impact player in the nba this year.
     
  15. 11Rox4Life3

    11Rox4Life3 Member

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    to be fair, that is all i was arguing....

    i don't think i ever said we'd get him or trade for him. i was disputing the notion that morey wouldn't be interested in him if we could acquire him for a fair deal. in fact i said it's more likely the hawks won't deal him rather than us not simply being interested.
     
  16. kuku

    kuku Contributing Member

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    I like Horford as a player, but if you want to contruct a championship roster, you just can't afford to pay him at $12M, at least not until he plays above his contract value.

    The formula is simple. Without tanking:
    1. Accumulate assets
    2. Remain cap flexibility for top tier FA's
    3. Trade or acquire via free agency for (at least) 2 of top 10 players (max contracts).
    4. Add another top 20 (if not, then top 30) player.
    5. Add undervalued role players.

    Morey's formula is above mentioned.

    Most difficult is step 3, and we already accomplished 1/2 that with Harden. Hopefully we can cross off step 3 with Dwight this summer. Steps 4 and 5 are quite easy, especially for someone like Morey.

    If JSmoove leaves and Hawks aren't able to acquire any big name FA's, he will become the sole #1 option, where he used to share with Smoove. Will he take his game to the next level? Maybe....

    I am more willing to bet that Hawks will become Jazz of East. If they can't land CP3 or Dwight, look for them for sign/trade either Millsap or Al Jefferson or both.
     
  17. Fair Dinkum

    Fair Dinkum Member

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    Sorry, I misunderstood. I thought you wanted Horford on the Rockets.

    Yep, I like him a lot and he could have star potential but not in the same class as Howard or Paul. Don't think Morey is interested unless he's a piece to fill in the gaps after he acquires a 2nd max superstar.
     
  18. megastahr

    megastahr Contributing Member

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    First, I just thought about this... If Dwight Howard wasn't strongly considering leaving LA and leaving money on the table he would have already sign a contract. Same with CP3. There is nothing to gain waiting, as far as negotiating the contract. CP3 and Howard both will sign the max wherever they go.

    So any delay shows indecision, and if they make it to July 1st free agents...there is absolutely a chance a new team can talk them into leaving. I think the rockets will have a strong advantage once that happens with moreys long love affair with Howard and his resume of find cheap contracts for starters, and Harden.



    Second, Hotford isnt elite at this point, but he is above average when healthy. He would be a fantastic weapon and as 2nd or 3rd best player. He is equivalent to bosh...with slight advantage to bosh...but for 5 mil less per year.

    He has a great offensive game, but Hawks play him out of position at the center. If he played the 4 he would be much more effective. Look for Hawks to accquire a center after they lose Smith and watch Hortford surpass smith as the better player.
     
  19. basketballholic

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    Can't see Hawks giving up Horford. Too much value for his contract. You're right on. If he was playing next to a big like Asik or Pau Gasol for instance, that type of combination would be very, very effective. He is a better player than Josh Smith.

    The Hawks cap situation is precisely what concerns me the most about Dwight staying in LA and teaming up with Chris Paul and us losing out on both him and Pau. Hawks have enough cap space to trade for Pau, Steve Blake, and Jordan sending the Lakers back nothing but air. Lakers could then amnesty Kobe and sign Paul to a max deal. If Atlanta knew they weren't getting Dwight or Paul and that Smith was definitely walking on them, then getting 3 guy on expiring deals with one of them being a top 5 big man in the game for just their cap space for one season would be a very good deal for them.
     
  20. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    The Atlanta press when it asked its sources about Pau Gasol were told "he is the last thing we want to get", they don't want old, so you can stop being worried.

    What you should be worried about is them taking Griffin and Bledsoe from the Clippers to clear out room, especially if someone will take DeAndre.
     

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