[Gustav] New Tropical Threat

If a model is showing us as a direct hit 7 days from it happening, I feel confident that we're in the clear. The 3 day cone is what I look at, and really on the NHC cone as they know what they're doing. Models, I don't follow 'em much at all anymore, especially the spaghetti models we have right now.

Cue Dr. Neil coming to tell us we're all gonna die in 3...2...1...

 

Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty is correct only about 2/3 of the time--1/3 of the time, we can expect the storm's position to be in error by more than what the cone of uncertainty suggests.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?

 

I'm a weather underground slut. Have been for years. Seeing a model 7-8 days out showing us as a direct hit as a cat 4/5 does nothing for me. I'll wait till it enters the gulf, follow the high pressure and the steering currents and read up. I'm not gonna panic like I did with Rita. I've got supplies, and I have to stay since I'm on the "emergency contact list" with Centerpoint Energy thanks to my job.

If I leave along with everyone at my company, you will have no power for a long, long time.

All I need is beer, cigs, beer, peanut butter, bread, beer, propane, beer...I'm all good.

Oh, and a blow up mattress to sleep in my office since we're on the "first to receive power" list, so I'd take advantage of the AC. If I can get there.

 

Glad you're staying...but if Cat 4 hits Galveston, it's going to be a long, long time before I get power whether you're here or not!

 

As of 10:12 PM on 8/26:

 

Dear Cone,

Please move more East.

Your buddy,

LonghronFan.

 

If Gustav gets in the way of my fantasy football draft on Tuesday I'm going to be seriously pissed.

 

If that thing stays in the middle of that cone, it would be about 100 miles West of NOLA....which would mean the worst part of the storm would hit New Orleans.

DD

 

Yeah, I have one on Sunday and Tuesday evening. Both money leagues, and I'm the only one in Texas. Really would be the suck.

 

This is why you never really take the models seriously when the storms are more than 5 days out.

The new 0z GFDL is out and NOLA is once again the target for this storm in the eyes of the GFDL just as it was yesterday morning.

August 27th 0z GFDL model

and the August 27th 0z HWRF model as well.

 

Latest GFDL model. I still don't trust it, but damn...that's one powerful HC into New Orleans if true.

 

Here are the rest of the updated tracks.

 

so most likely we arent goign to take a hit right?

 

If this indeed holds up, I truly pray for New Orleans. This could be one monster of a storm if it gets it's act together and regains strength when hitting the gulf and blowing up with the warm loop current eddy below Louisiana.

Please keep going east. Mr. Hurricane.

 

It's still 5-7 days away from hitting the gulf coast. WAY too early to predict.

 

Hurricanes aren't really scarry or anything. Yes, they can be dangerous - very. And you have to be prepared. But compared to tornadoes, brush fires, earthquakes...even severe snowstorms, I'd probably take hurricanes.

That said, damn do they piss me off. Such a nuissance. I'm supposed to go out of town on business next Wednesday. What if the hurricane slows down? What if it's a direct hit? What to do with this and that to get prepared, blah blah blah.

So I really really hope this thing goes east.

 

I see about 4 models there that look potentially bad for NOLA.

 

Hurricanes spawn tornadoes.

 

I'm flying out of NOLA on Sunday for the RNC. It was 1/3 the price of flying out of Houston (fewer Republicans, I guess), so I figured it was worth the drive. I'm praying that it doesn't hit Louisiana or at least waits until Tuesday.